3 reasons why UMBC can upset Kansas State and make the Sweet 16

As second round play begins in the NCAA tournament, America continues to marvel at UMBC becoming the first 16 seed to knock off a 1. But as Saturday continues to roll on, the question of how UMBC was able to do what it did against Virginia will start to give way to another question: How far can the Retrievers take this thing?

If a team is capable of not just beating the No. 1 overall team in the tournament, but destroying them by 20, then it stands to reason that the same team has at least a puncher’s chance to keep advancing in the Big Dance.

Here are three reasons to believe that UMBC can win on Sunday and remain America’s sweetheart for another week.

There’s obviously no historical precedent to go off here, because before Friday night a 16 seed had never beaten a 1. The closest thing to what we saw from UMBC against Virginia might be the 2012-13 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles.

Like UMBC, the way that FGCU pulled off its first round win was almost more impressive than the victory itself. The 15th-seeded Eagles threw down all over Georgetown in a 78-68 win where they looked like the better team from start to finish.

Dunk City was born in the Georgetown game, but the ride didn’t stop there.

During that first game against the Hoyas, Florida Gulf Coast looked — just as UMBC did on Friday — like a team fully capable of pulling off more than just one upset in the tourney. Appearances were not deceiving in this case, as the Eagles hammered seventh-seeded San Diego State two days later, 81-71. FGCU was eventually knocked out of the tournament by Florida (62-50), and remains the only team seeded 15th or worse to play in the Sweet 16.

Perhaps they’ll have company next weekend.

In order for that to happen, UMBC will have to upset a ninth-seeded Kansas State team that put together an impressive 69-59 first round win over Creighton. Despite that, there’s at least some reason for optimism for fans hoping the Retrievers’ run doesn’t end with a single victory.

Kansas State’s two leadings scorers — Dean Wade (16.5 ppg) and Barry Brown (16.0 ppg) — have both been banged up in recent weeks. Now Brown, who missed time during K-State’s Big 12 tournament loss to Kansas because of an eye injury, played and played very well Friday night against Creighton. Wade, however, remains hobbled by a foot injury and did not see the court against the Bluejays.

With Wade unable to go, Kansas State got an enormous lift from unheralded freshman Mike McGuirl. Entering the game having scored just 13 points all season, McGuirl dropped 17 points in 22 minutes. It was a great March Madness story. It’s also the type of March Madness story that tends to be a one-shot deal.

After the win over Creighton, Kansas Sate coach Bruce Weber didn’t seem overly optimistic about the chances of Wade playing big minutes on Sunday.

“If it improves and he wants to go and give it a shot and we need him, I don’t think it’s going to be major minutes,” Weber said. “But he wants to be part of it. If it helps us have success and move on, I’m sure Dean will be there giving his all.”

If Wade is again sidelined and McGuirl isn’t guided by the Gods of March, then UMBC will be facing a K-State team that is far from full strength.

Kansas State thoroughly outplayed Creighton on Friday night, but the Wildcats were also aided by shooting 25 free-throws to the Bluejays’ five. Part of that disparity is because Creighton was trying to lengthen the game in the final minutes. But even before that, K-State was doing a healthy amount of its damage from the charity stripe.

UMBC sent Virginia to the line only eight times on Friday, which played a big part in the Retrievers’ upset. On the season, opponents are shooting just 68.0 percent from the stripe against UMBC, giving Ryan Odom’s team the 17th-best “free-throw defense” in the country.

Creighton was also done in by some abysmal outside shooting, going 9 for 34 from beyond the arc. UMBC, meanwhile, was 12 of 24 against the best defensive team in college basketball.

It’s hard to imagine Kansas State did a whole lot of scouting on UMBC in the days after the bracket was revealed. Just sayin’.