Every Sweet 16 team’s title chances, ranked

The opening weekend of the NCAA tournament left no bracket unscathed. Two No. 1 seeds are gone. Trendy national title picks in Arizona and Michigan State have been eliminated. The top four seeds in the South have already been knocked out — the first time that’s ever happened before the Sweet 16.

A tournament reset is in order. Who’s best of the teams left standing? This is what the national title picture looks like as March Madness reaches the second weekend.

How they got here: Beat No. 8 Creighton, 69-59; beat No. 16 UMBC, 50-43

Kansas State has made its surprise Final Four run with great defense and even greater luck. The Wildcats only allowed 0.89 points per possession against Creighton in the opener, then held a UMBC team that scored 1.19 points per possession against Virginia’s top-ranked defense to just 0.65 points per possession in the second round.

The Wildcats are at their best when can turn defense to offense and get out in transition:

Still, the Wildcats on Wildcats matchup against Kentucky won’t be easy. The Fightin’ Bruce Webers are struggling to create good looks offensively right now. It’s almost impossible to advance through the bracket with a lifeless offense ... unless you draw a No. 16 seed.

Even after an opening weekend defined by chaos, the Ramblers feel like the one true Cinderella left standing. The Missouri Valley champs needed back-to-back game-winners to get here, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be a pushover in the Sweet 16.

Loyola is hitting its threes, playing tough defense, and has a favorable matchup against seventh-seeded Nevada. The Wolf Pack start three 6’7 players across the front line, so Loyola won’t be a great size disadvantage. Nevada has group of strong, athletic players in the rotation, but Loyola has already proven they beat teams with that profile against Miami and Tennessee.

The key for Loyola will be plugging up driving lanes for Jordan Caroline and the Martin twins. The Ramblers may be tied the lowest seeded team in the field, but they have an honest chance to make the Elite Eight.

It’s wild that this Florida State team is the one to finally breakthrough. The Seminoles have had better NBA talent the last couple years — think Jonathan Isaac, Malik Beasley, Dwayne Bacon — but this group is just a bunch of no frills, hard-nosed veterans who do a little bit of everything well.

Florida State’s greatest asset is its depth. Three bench players have reached double-figures in scoring in both of the team’s tournament games so far. Leonard Hamilton is playing nine or 10 guys right now, which is practically unheard of in March. The ‘Noles were able to come back from a 12-point deficit in the final 10 minutes against No. 1 Xavier by wearing them down physically.

Gonzaga will be the favorite in the Sweet 16 game, but FSU does match up with them well.

How does Syracuse always do this? For the second time in three years, the Orange are the last team selected for the NCAA tournament field, yet here they are in the Sweet 16. Back in 2016, the Orange ran all the way to the Final Four as a double-digit seed. Can they do it again?

Probably not, but Jim Boeheim’s team also should not have beaten Michigan State. It’s just so hard to prepare for that zone defense on such short notice. Duke gets a few days to do it, plus the advantage of playing zone themselves. What would a middle school basketball game look like if played by high-major athletes? We’re about to find out.

(That’s a nice way of saying zone defense is for cowards.)

The Tigers looked ripe for an upset heading into the tournament. Whoops. Clemson just blew the doors off of Auburn on both ends the court in a 31-point win to reach the Sweet 16. Brad Brownell has a trio of junior guards in Marcquise Reed, Gabe DeVoe, and Shelton Mitchell who play with cohesion and don’t take much off the table.

If you watched the way they tore up SEC regular-season champ Auburn, it’s impossible to think this team is done:

Kansas is very good, of course, but there’s something dangerous about a team that feels like it’s playing with house money. That’s Clemson right now.

The comeback kids of March. Nevada needed a 14-point comeback to beat Texas in round one and then erased a 22-point deficit to take out Cincinnati, which goes down as the second-biggest tournament comeback ever.

The Cardiac Pack’s offense is now up to No. 6 in the country, per KenPom. There’s a trio of stars here, with Cody Martin providing all-around scoring, Caleb Martin acting as a swiss-army knife and solid perimeter defender, and Jordan Caroline developing into an interior force. Look out below:

The guess here is Nevada-Loyola is going to be wildly entertaining. KenPom has the Wolf Pack winning by two, which feels like the right line for a game that should be close.

Texas Tech is the best defensive team left in the field. They have senior star in point guard Keenan Evans, who is doing his best Kemba Walker impression to carry the offense right now. They also have one of the tournament’s breakout stars, Zhaire Smith, who might be the most athletic player in college basketball:

Texas Tech’s formula is to lockdown your offense, crash the glass and hope Evans can hit enough pull-ups late to bury you. All things considered, could be worse.

Is it possible Purdue could be better without injured center Isaac Haas? The Boilermakers have gotten themselves in trouble this season when they force feed Haas rather let their perimeter players dictate the action. Now Purdue should be a drive-and-kick team with Carsen Edwards at the controls and shooters dotting the three-point arc around him.

Throw in that America’s new hair idol Matt Haarms is 7’3 and a capable backup who is quicker than Haas defensively, and you can see why it’s not time to write off the Boilermakers just yet. The shooters in Purdue’s four-out offense just need to stay hot.

West Virginia will beat you up and steal your lunch money. The Mountaineers won their first two NCAA tournament games by a combined 40 points. This is always a defense-first team, pressing at every opportunity. So far, so good: WVU forced 34 turnovers across wins over Murray State and Marshall.

West Virginia also has a legitimate star in Jevon Carter. The senior guard is playing his best ball of the year right now, dropping 28 points in round one and 21 points in round two. He is the heart and soul of this team and type of strong lead guard you need to make a surprise run in March.

Bob Huggins is going to dial up the defensive pressure against Villanova and try to get the ball out of Jalen Brunson’s hands. West Virginia-Villanova feels like the best game of the Sweet 16.

The best thing you can say about the ‘Zags at this point is they have survived and advanced. The first two games have been nail biters, saved by Zach Norvell’s hot shooting and the potential emergence of Rui Hachimura.

Killian Tillie feels like the swing guy here. The sophomore forward was on fire heading into the NCAAs, averaging 24 points and 5.3 rebounds per game while making 13-of-14 three-pointers across Gonzaga’s three wins in the WCC tournament. In the NCAA tournament so far, he’s only scored nine total points in two games.

The West feels wide open right now. Gonzaga’s second straight Final Four appearance is there for the taking.

Texas A&M might have the single most impressive win of the tournament so far, blasting North Carolina, 86-65, in the round of 32. The Aggies were ranked No. 5 in the country at Christmas this season, then lost five straight. Now they appear to be rediscovering how to leverage the physical advantages that make this roster so tough to match up with.

The Aggies are huge. Tyler Davis is a 6’11, 260-pound throwback center who wants to give you buckets in the post. Robert Williams is long, strong, and explosive — a future NBA first-round pick who is making above-the-rim plays on both ends right now. D.J. Hogg is tall for a wing at 6’9 and Tonny Trocha-Morelos also plays big minutes off the bench as a 6’10 center.

A team seeded No. 7 or lower has crashed the Final Four the last five years. Texas A&M has the potential to do it this season.

This just doesn’t look like a classic Bill Self team. The two-post offense is gone. There isn’t much depth inside. There’s also no sure-fire first-round pick for a program that has produced 13 of them over the last 10 years.

Instead, the Jayhawks have a great senior point guard in Devonte Graham, three wing shooters next to him and a mammoth 7-foot, 280-pound center in Udoka Azubuike in the middle. The Jayhawks want to drive-and-kick and launch threes. When Azubuike gets the ball, it creates a situation where the defense has to leave a good shooter to cover him. That’s part of the reason he shoots 77.5 percent from the field on the season — the highest mark in DI.

Kansas playing small (around a massive center) is a new reality. The Jayhawks launch threes on 41.1 percent of their possessions — when they won the national title in 2008, that number was only 29.3 percent. If those shots are falling and Azubuike can stay on the floor, KU will have a chance in every game it plays.

What’s better, Jordan Poole’s shot ....

... or Jordan Poole’s reaction?

It’s a toss up, really.

The West feels wide open right now, but we’ll install Michigan as the slight favorites. They’re on an 11-game winning streak. They have one of the game’s best coaches in John Beilein. And shockingly, they’re posting the best defensive efficiency (on the season) of any team left standing in the tournament.

Michigan’s roster is not overwhelmingly talented, but it fits together well. There’s shooters, there’s long, versatile perimeter defenders, there’s a stretch big in Mo Wagner capable of a star turn. No one has beaten this team in six weeks. It’s going to take a hell of an effort to do it.

The Wildcats were not a good team earlier this season, but that has changed over the last month. John Calipari overhauled his lineup and suddenly Kentucky has won nine of its last 10 games. As the top four seeds in the South Region have all been eliminated, Kentucky now looks like it has a clear path to the Final Four.

The biggest development for the Wildcats has been the breakout of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Alexander had relatively little hype coming into Kentucky as a four-star recruit, but now he’s getting hype as a potential top-10 draft pick. He’s a long, agile point guard (6’6, with a 7-foot wingspan) with a shifty handle who finds ways to score at the rim.

Now that Kentucky finally has that future top-10 draft pick it’s accustomed to, the rest of the roster falls into place. Quade Green, Wenyen Gabriel, and Kevin Knox can knock down shots. P.J. Washington is a bull on the inside. Alexander is the creator.

Kentucky still has lots of length and athleticism all over the court. It is still an elite offensive rebounding team. The Wildcats are not without flaw, but they’re playing well and wouldn’t face a higher-seeded team until the Final Four. This doesn’t feel like one of Calipari’s best teams, but it could end up being one of his most successful.

Duke has the highest ceiling of any team in the country. That has been the case from the moment Marvin Bagley III reclassified and joined the team in mid-August and it remains true today. But even with so much talent, the Duke squad that has gotten to this point has largely felt like a work in progress.

Maybe that shouldn’t be a surprise. Duke starts four five-star freshmen and Grayson Allen, making this the youngest team in the country. Duke could not get stops playing man-to-man defense, so Mike Krzyzewski has switched to a full-time zone. Their defensive efficiency has skyrocketed all the way to top-10 territory since the move, but it remains the biggest variable that could sink them in March.

We know Duke’s offense will be ready. Bagley is brilliant as inside scorer, whether he’s overpowering defenders or using his agility to step around them. Allen and Gary Trent are knockdown shooters on the wing. Wendell Carter is a top-10 NBA Draft pick in his own right, a skilled big man who scores efficiently, owns the glass and is learning how to be the zone’s last line of defense.

Duke still has trouble defending high ball screens. It still has a point guard in Trevon Duval that opposing teams will play way off and dare to shoot. It’s still a team that has lost seven games so far and has never really felt as dominant as it could have been.

Will Duke hit its ceiling before the tournament ends? Whether they succeed or fail, it will be fascinating to watch.

Villanova doesn’t just have the No. 1 offense in the country — it has the second most efficient of the KenPom era (since 2002), only behind the Frank Kaminsky-led Wisconsin Badgers of 2015. If you’ve seen the Wildcats in the tournament at all up to this point, you know how amazing that offense can look when it’s cooking.

Villanova took 41 threes against Alabama in the round of 32 and canned 17 of them (41.5 percent). Mikal Bridges looks like Klay Thompson. Donte DiVincenzo is a microwave scorer off the bench. Omari Spellman has given this team the type of dependable center it missed so badly last year. Jalen Brunson remains at the controls, orchestrating this beautiful thing as a point guard who can get his own or set up his talented teammates.

Villanova’s interior defense might still be suspect, which makes a potential Final Four game vs. Duke so intriguing. But ‘Nova checks almost every other box. It has a great coach, a star point guard, shooters everywhere, and enough defensive versatility to get stops.

As this chaotic tournament hits the Sweet 16, Villanova feels like the favorite.