For most of Monday night, this bracket looked remarkably similar to the one published earlier in the day. Sure, I bumped the Iona Gaels up to the 15 line after they claimed the MAAC Tournament title and the UNCG Spartans secured their permanent place in 2018’s bracket by adding the Southern Conference Tournament title to their regular-season crown. (As an aside, it’s difficult to reward a team that goes by an initialism with the ALL CAPS reward I traditionally give auto bid winners.)
Bracketology 2018: St. Mary’s is the ultimate bubble team after loss in WCC tournament
A BYU win over Gonzaga in tonight’s final would pop some unlucky team’s bubble. Meanwhile, Saint Mary’s is teetering on the edge.
Then the second WCC Tournament semifinal happened while most of the country was asleep. In that game, the third-seeded BYU Cougars knocked off the second-seeded Saint Mary’s Gaels, 85-72, thanks in no small part to 33 points from Yoeli Childs. Yesterday, I wrote about the issues with the Gaels’ profile and how they really needed to win the WCC’s auto bid to be safe. Now, there was a silver lining in last night’s result for Saint Mary’s — BYU’s RPI jumped up to 67th (per WarrenNolan.com). That means the Gaels doubled their Group 1 win total by losing, with both victories coming in true road situations.
As a result, I’m keeping Saint Mary’s in, for the moment, but in the First Four. And with 10 of the 12 teams on the wrong side of the cut line set to take the court in the coming days, the Gaels won’t be able to breathe easy for the remainder of the week. Not with 24 of their 28 wins coming against teams from outside of the RPI Top 100.
After Tuesday’s full bracket and rundown, I’ll take a look at today’s bubble schedule, which closes with the WCC final.
1. South (Left) and 2. East (Right)
Atlanta (Thu./Sat.) | Boston (Fri./Sun.) |
|---|---|
| Charlotte (Fri./Sun.) | Pittsburgh (Thu./Sat.) |
| 1. Virginia (ACC) | 1. Villanova |
| 16. SE La./Ark.-Pine Bluff | 16. RADFORD/Hampton |
| 8. Arkansas | 8. Rhode Island (A 10) |
| 9. Butler | 9. Kansas State |
| San Diego (Fri./Sun.) | Boise (Thu./Sat.) |
| 5. Ohio State | 5. West Virginia |
| 12. Arizona State/Alabama | 12. Buffalo (MAC) |
| 4. Texas Tech | 4. Gonzaga (WCC) |
| 13. Vermont (AE) | 13. MURRAY STATE (OVC) |
| Wichita (Thu./Sat.) | Pittsburgh (Thu./Sat.) |
| 6. Texas A&M | 6. Kentucky |
| 11. Texas | 11. Marquette/Saint Mary's |
| 3. MICHIGAN (Big Ten) | 3. North Carolina |
| 14. Bucknell (Patriot) | 14. UNCG (SoCon) |
| Nashville (Fri./Sun.) | Detroit (Fri./Sun.) |
| 7. TCU | 7. Seton Hall |
| 10. N.C. State | 10. St. Bonaventure |
| 2. Cincinnati (American) | 2. Michigan State |
| 15. Harvard (Ivy) | 15. Wright State (Horizon) |
4. West (Left) and 3. Midwest (Right)
Los Angeles (Thu./Sat.) | Omaha (Fri./Sun.) |
|---|---|
| Charlotte (Fri./Sun.) | Detroit (Fri./Sun.) |
| 1. Duke | 1. Xavier (Big East) |
| 16. LIPSCOMB (ASUN) | ↓16. Wagner (NEC) |
| 8. Creighton | 8. Nevada (MW) |
| 9. Oklahoma | 9. Florida State |
| San Diego (Fri./Sun.) | Boise (Thu./Sat.) |
| 5. Florida | 5. Clemson |
| 12. New Mexico State (WAC) | 12. LOYOLA (ILL.) (MVC) |
| 4. Arizona (Pac-12) | 4. Wichita State |
| 13. South Dakota State (Summit) | 13. Louisiana (Sun Belt) |
| Dallas (Thu./Sat.) | Dallas (Thu./Sat.) |
| 6. Houston | 6. Miami (Fla.) |
| 11. USC | 11. UCLA |
| 3. Tennessee | 3. Auburn (SEC) |
| 14. Montana (Big Sky) | 14. College of Charleston (CAA) |
| Nashville (Fri./Sun.) | Wichita (Thu./Sat.) |
| 7. Virginia Tech | 7. Missouri |
| 10. Providence | 10. Middle Tennessee (C-USA) |
| 2. Purdue | 2. Kansas (Big 12) |
| 15. UC Davis (Big West) | ↑15. IONA (MAAC) |
First Four
SOUTH (Automatic) | EAST (Automatic) | SOUTH (At-Large) | EAST (At-Large) |
|---|---|---|---|
| To Charlotte (Wed.) | To Pittsburgh (Tue.) | To San Diego (Wed.) | To Pittsburgh (Tue.) |
| 16. SE Louisiana (Southland) | 16. RADFORD (Big South) | 12. Arizona State | 11. Marquette |
| 16. Ark.-Pine Bluff (SWAC) | 16. Hampton (MEAC) | 12. Alabama | 11. Saint Mary's |
| KEY: ALL CAPS = clinched auto bid | * = new to bracket | ↑ = seed rising | ↓ = seed falling |
Rundown
LAST EIGHT IN | FIRST EIGHT OUT | ALSO CONSIDERED |
|---|---|---|
| Providence | Syracuse | BYU |
| UCLA | Louisville | Oregon |
| Texas | Utah | Nebraska |
| USC | Baylor | Penn State |
| Marquette (Dayton) | Oklahoma State | Mississippi State |
| Saint Mary's (Dayton) | Notre Dame | LSU |
| Arizona State (Dayton) | Washington | |
| Alabama (Dayton) | Boise State |
Bids by Conference
Conference | Bids | Teams (in Seed List Order) |
|---|---|---|
| ACC | 8 | Virginia (auto bid), Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Miami (Fla.), Virginia Tech, Florida State, N.C. State |
| SEC | 8 | Auburn (auto bid), Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Missouri, Arkansas, Alabama (First Four) |
| Big 12 | 7 | Kansas (auto bid), Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Texas |
| Big East | 7 | Villanova, Xavier (auto bid), Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler, Providence, Marquette (First Four) |
| Big Ten | 4 | Michigan State, Purdue, Michigan (auto bid), Ohio State |
| Pac-12 | 4 | Arizona (auto bid), UCLA, USC, Arizona State (First Four) |
| American | 3 | Cincinnati (auto bid), Wichita State, Houston |
| A 10 | 2 | Rhode Island (auto bid), St. Bonaventure |
| WCC | 2 | Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary's (First Four) |
Five teams will secure places in the 2018 NCAA Tournament tonight, though only the evening’s proceedings in Las Vegas will have an impact on the at-large picture. In the 7 p.m. Eastern window, the Horizon League (ESPN), Northeast Conference (ESPN2) and Colonial Athletic Association (CBSSN) will close out their tournaments, while the Summit League (ESPN2) will play second fiddle to the WCC in the 9 p.m. slot.
The ACC Tournament also tips off in Brooklyn this afternoon. You can probably skip the noon Eastern tip (ESPN2/ACC Network) between Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and Boston College Eagles, as the latter’s hopes were dashed by a 1-4 finish to conference play. However, the other games are must-win contests for the higher-seeded participants. The tenth-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish cannot afford a loss to a Pittsburgh Panthers team that went 0-18 in the ACC (approx. 2:30 p.m., ESPN2/ACC Network), though that’s unlikely with Bonzie Colson back on the floor. Then, the Syracuse Orange have to win their rubber match with Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7 p.m., ESPNU/ACC Network) to remain in the hunt and set up a Wednesday night matchup with the North Carolina Tar Heels.
But the most significant game of the night is the WCC final (9 p.m., ESPN), as Gonzaga might be playing for a protected seed and BYU will burst a bubble by pulling the upset. At the moment, that would be the Alabama Crimson Tide’s, though they would have a chance to climb back in when they start SEC Tournament play on Thursday.
On Wednesday, things really kick into gear with the ACC continuing and the Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC all tipping off their postseason events. I’ll be back tomorrow morning with a fresh bracket and look at the matchups with bracket implications, with a day full of play-in games set to further shape the bubble picture.
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