Wednesday play disrupted the morning’s largely static bracket and today’s version features two new entrants and the potential for more change as Thursday unfolds.
Bracketology 2018: Arizona State is living on the edge
The Sun Devils, 8-11 after a 12-0 start, are on their way out after dropping their Pac-12 Tournament opener to Colorado. Meanwhile, Louisville is back in after holding off Florida State in the ACC.
For starters, this projection now features nine ACC teams, as the Louisville Cardinals jump back in following their Wednesday afternoon win over the Florida State Seminoles. Note that the ‘Noles, the N.C. State Wolfpack (who couldn’t complete a furious rally against the Boston College Eagles in the second game of the day in Brooklyn) and Virginia Tech Hokies (who fell victim to a Notre Dame Fighting Irish comeback) all remain in the bracket, though all three lost positioning on the seed list after their losses.
And thanks to the Oklahoma State Cowboys’ Big 12 Tournament win over the Oklahoma Sooners, the prospect of that conference placing 90 percent of its membership in the field of 68 is very much alive. For starters, the league now has eight teams in this projection, as the idle Baylor Bears return. The Sooners, who still own five top 25 RPI wins, are still a good bet for selection after Wednesday’s loss, even if they’ve only won twice since the calendar turned to February. As for the Cowboys, they probably need to defeat the Kansas Jayhawks for a third time, thanks to their RPI of 85. If that happens during the afternoon session and Baylor defeats the West Virginia Mountaineers tonight, Plan 9 from the Big 12 will be very much in play.
With their respective losses to the North Carolina Tar Heels and Oregon State Beavers, the Syracuse Orange and Washington Huskies are almost assuredly headed to the NIT. As for the Arizona State Sun Devils, they’re still in this projection for the moment. This is largely because two of their four wins in their final 10 games came against a pair of fellow Pac-12 bubble teams, the USC Trojans and UCLA Bruins, even if both in Tempe. But with all four teams immediately behind ASU in action today, the Sun Devils shouldn’t feel confident about selection.
As usual for the final days of the Championship Fortnight, I’ll have a conference-by-conference look at the crucial games for the NCAA picture after today’s full bracket and rundown.
1. South (Left) and 2. East (Right)
Atlanta (Thu./Sat.) | Boston (Fri./Sun.) |
|---|---|
| Charlotte (Fri./Sun.) | Pittsburgh (Thu./Sat.) |
| 1. Virginia (ACC) | 1. Villanova |
| 16. SE La./Ark.-Pine Bluff | 16. LIU BROOKLYN/Hampton |
| ↓8. Missouri | 8. Rhode Island (A 10) |
| 9. Butler | 9. Florida State |
| San Diego (Fri./Sun.) | Boise (Thu./Sat.) |
| 5. Ohio State | 5. West Virginia |
| 12. Louisville Arizona State | 12. Buffalo (MAC) |
| 4. Texas Tech | 4. GONZAGA (WCC) |
| 13. Vermont (AE) | 13. MURRAY STATE (OVC) |
| Wichita (Thu./Sat.) | Pittsburgh (Thu./Sat.) |
| 6. Texas A&M | 6. Kentucky |
| ↓11. Providence | *11. Baylor/Saint Mary's |
| 3. MICHIGAN (Big Ten) | 3. North Carolina |
| 14. BUCKNELL (Patriot) | 14. UNCG (SoCon) |
| Nashville (Fri./Sun.) | Detroit (Fri./Sun.) |
| 7. TCU | 7. Seton Hall |
| ↑10. UCLA | ↓10. Oklahoma |
| 2. Cincinnati (American) | 2. Michigan State |
| 15. Harvard (Ivy) | 15. WRIGHT STATE (Horizon) |
4. West (Left) and 3. Midwest (Right)
Los Angeles (Thu./Sat.) | Omaha (Fri./Sun.) |
|---|---|
| Charlotte (Fri./Sun.) | Detroit (Fri./Sun.) |
| 1. Duke | 1. Xavier (Big East) |
| 16. LIPSCOMB (ASUN) | 16. RADFORD (Big South) |
| 8. Creighton | ↓8. Virginia Tech |
| 9. Kansas State | ↑9. St. Bonaventure |
| San Diego (Fri./Sun.) | Boise (Thu./Sat.) |
| 5. Florida | 5. Clemson |
| 12. New Mexico State (WAC) | 12. LOYOLA (ILL.) (MVC) |
| 4. Arizona (Pac-12) | 4. Wichita State |
| 13. SOUTH DAKOTA ST. (Summit) | 13. Louisiana (Sun Belt) |
| Dallas (Thu./Sat.) | Dallas (Thu./Sat.) |
| 6. Houston | 6. Miami (Fla.) |
| ↓11. N.C. State | 11. USC |
| 3. Tennessee | 3. Auburn (SEC) |
| 14. Montana (Big Sky) | 14. COLL. OF CHARLESTON (CAA) |
| Nashville (Fri./Sun.) | Wichita (Thu./Sat.) |
| ↑7. Arkansas | 7. Nevada (MW) |
| ↑10. Texas | ↑10. Middle Tennessee (C-USA) |
| 2. Purdue | 2. Kansas (Big 12) |
| 15. UC Davis (Big West) | 15. IONA (MAAC) |
First Four
SOUTH (Automatic) | EAST (Automatic) | SOUTH (At-Large) | EAST (At-Large) |
|---|---|---|---|
| To Charlotte (Wed.) | To Pittsburgh (Tue.) | To San Diego (Wed.) | To Pittsburgh (Tue.) |
| 16. SE Louisiana (Southland) | 16. LIU BROOKLYN (NEC) | *12. Louisville | *11. Baylor |
| 16. Ark.-Pine Bluff (SWAC) | 16. Hampton (MEAC) | ↓12. Arizona State | 11. Saint Mary's |
| KEY: ALL CAPS = clinched auto bid | * = new to bracket | ↑ = seed rising | ↓ = seed falling |
Rundown
LAST EIGHT IN | FIRST EIGHT OUT | ALSO CONSIDERED | ARRIVALS | DEPARTURES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | Alabama | Nebraska | Baylor | Alabama |
| USC | Oklahoma State | Penn State | Louisville | Marquette |
| N.C. State | Marquette | Mississippi State | ||
| Providence | Notre Dame | Washington | ||
| Baylor (Dayton) | Utah | LSU | ||
| Saint Mary's (Dayton) | Boise State | Georgia | ||
| Louisville (Dayton) | Syracuse | |||
| Arizona State (Dayton) | Oregon |
Bids by Conference
Conference | Bids | Teams (in Seed List Order) |
|---|---|---|
| ACC | 9 | Virginia (auto bid), Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Miami (Fla.), Virginia Tech, Florida State, N.C. State, Louisville (First Four) |
| Big 12 | 8 | Kansas (auto bid), Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Texas, Baylor (First Four) |
| SEC | 7 | Auburn (auto bid), Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Missouri |
| Big East | 6 | Villanova, Xavier (auto bid), Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler, Providence |
| Big Ten | 4 | Michigan State, Purdue, Michigan (auto bid), Ohio State |
| Pac-12 | 4 | Arizona (auto bid), UCLA, USC, Arizona State (First Four) |
| American | 3 | Cincinnati (auto bid), Wichita State, Houston |
| A 10 | 2 | Rhode Island (auto bid), St. Bonaventure |
| WCC | 2 | Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary's (First Four) |
I’ve arranged today’s schedule based on when each conference starts play for the day. All times are Eastern.
ACC Tournament Quarterfinals
ESPN and the ACC Network will air all four games.
No. 9 Louisville Cardinals (20-12, 9-9) vs. No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers (28-2, 17-1), 12 p.m.
If the Cardinals can do what they couldn’t one week ago against Virginia, they’ll find themselves in a far stronger position. As for the Cavaliers, they’ll be on the top line win or lose, but probably need a victory to remain in the chase for the No. 1 overall seed.
Boston College Eagles (19-14, 7-11) vs. No. 4 Clemson Tigers (22-8, 11-7), approx. 2:30 p.m.
Bubble teams will be cheering for the Tigers to knock off the Eagles for a second time this season, as they’re a potential bid thief.
No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (20-13, 8-10) vs. No. 2 Duke Blue Devils (25-6, 13-5), 7 p.m.
As I wrote yesterday, a pair of bad losses with Bonzie Colson in the lineup means that yesterday’s win over Virginia Tech wasn’t going to be enough for the Fighting Irish. Knocking off the hot Blue Devils, who’ve won six of seven, would change that.
No. 6 North Carolina Tar Heels (23-9, 11-7) vs. No. 3 Miami Hurricanes (22-8, 11-7), approx. 9:30 p.m.
This game only has seeding implications, with the Tar Heels still in position to earn a No. 2 seed with a couple of wins in Brooklyn.
Big East Tournament Quarterfinals
FS1 will air all four games.
No. 9 St. John’s Red Storm (16-16, 4-14) vs. No. 1 Xavier Musketeers (27-4, 15-3), 12 p.m.
There’s a good chance both the Musketeers and Villanova find themselves on the top line if they meet in Saturday night’s final.
No. 5 Providence Friars (19-12, 10-8) vs. No. 4 Creighton Bluejays (21-10, 10-8), approx. 2:30 p.m.
The Friars have an interesting profile, as they defeated both Villanova and Xavier at home, but also own a pair of Group 4 losses (Minnesota and DePaul at home) and a road defeat at UMass. Defeating a Bluejay team that has a similar top-tier record of 3-8 — without the bad losses — for a second time this year can only help Providence.
No. 7 Marquette Golden Eagles (19-12, 9-9) vs. No. 2 Villanova Wildcats (27-4, 14-4), 7 p.m.
I bumped the Golden Eagles out last night before they struggled to get past DePaul. Knocking the Wildcats from their top line spot in the national bracket might be the only way for Marquette to get back in.
No. 6 Butler Bulldogs (19-12, 9-9) vs. No. 3 Seton Hall Pirates (21-10, 10-8), approx. 9:30 p.m.
The Bulldogs, who are 3-10 in Group 1 games, can help themselves considerably by knocking off the Pirates for the first time this season.
Big 12 Tournament Quarterfinals
ESPN2 will air all four games.
No. 5 TCU Horned Frogs (21-10, 9-9) vs. No. 4 Kansas State Wildcats (21-10, 10-8), 12:30 p.m.
One of the major factors that has the Wildcats in the field despite a non-conference strength of schedule of 326th is their 10-2 record against the non-KU/Texas Tech/WVU portion of their Big 12 schedule. But one of those two losses came against the Horned Frogs in Fort Worth. Lose this one and things could get tense in Manhattan this weekend.
No. 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys (19-13, 8-10) vs. No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (24-7, 13-5), approx. 3 p.m.
The Jayhawks’ prospects for this tournament took a pair of hits yesterday, first center Udoka Azubuike was ruled out with a knee sprain, then their bogey team knocked off Oklahoma. That combination might make getting back up to the top line a lot more difficult for Kansas.
No. 7 Texas Longhorns (19-13, 8-10) vs. No. 2 Texas Tech Red Raiders (23-8, 11-7), 7 p.m.
The Longhorns took care of business against the Iowa State Cyclones last night to give themselves some breathing room. They can earn a bit more, and possibly dump the Red Raiders out of the protected seed group, by winning the rubber match. Of course, that task will be made more difficult if Mohamed Bamba remains unavailable due to a toe injury.
No. 6 Baylor Bears (18-13, 8-10) vs. No. 3 West Virginia Mountaineers (22-9, 11-7), approx. 9:30 p.m.
The Bears might be fine win or lose, but beating the Mountaineers for the first time this season would all but sew a bid up for Baylor.
SEC Tournament Second Round
SEC Network will air all four games.
No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide (17-14, 8-10) vs. No. 8 Texas A&M Aggies (20-11, 9-9), 1 p.m.
While the Crimson Tide are currently the first team out of this projection, they’ll drop further down the pecking order if they drop their sixth straight and second in a row to the Aggies.
No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs (17-14, 7-11) vs. No. 5 Missouri Tigers (20-11, 10-8), approx. 3:30 p.m.
Are you ready for Michael Porter Jr. to take the court? If the Tigers can make a run in St. Louis with him in the lineup, they could get out of the 8/9 game they’re currently projected into. As for the Bulldogs, they need wins over teams not named “Vanderbilt” to put themselves back into the at-large picture.
No. 10 LSU Tigers (17-13, 8-10) vs. No. 7 Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-10, 9-9), 7 p.m.
This is an elimination game, though both squads are on the fringe anyway.
No. 11 South Carolina Gamecocks (17-15, 7-11) vs. No 6 Arkansas Razorbacks (21-10, 10-8), approx. 9:30 p.m.
The Razorbacks have quietly won six of their last eight to rebuild their profile, but a loss to the Gamecocks could drop them back into a dreaded 8/9 matchup.
Mountain West Tournament Quarterfinals
No. 8 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (20-12, 8-10) vs. No. 1 Nevada Wolf Pack (26-6, 15-3), 3 p.m. (CBSSN)
This is another crucial game for bubble teams, as the Wolf Pack are likely in with or without the Mountain West’s auto bid. While the in-state rivals split their season series, Nevada won the game in Vegas, which is the site of this encounter.
No. 7 Utah State Aggies (16-16, 8-10) vs. No. 2 Boise State Broncos (23-7, 13-5), 9 p.m.
The Broncos couldn’t sweep the Aggies in the regular season and a second loss would end their at-large hopes.
Pac-12 Tournament Quarterfinals
No. 8 Colorado Buffaloes (17-14, 8-10) vs. No. 1 Arizona Wildcats (24-7, 14-4), 3 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks)
The Wildcats are very much in play for a No. 3 seed nationally, but if they can’t defeat the Buffs for a second time, a four or five is much more likely.
No. 5 Stanford Cardinal (18-14, 11-7) vs. No. 4 UCLA Bruins (20-10, 11-7), approx. 5:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks)
I have the Bruins higher on my seed list because of their wins over Kentucky in New Orleans, at Arizona and sweep of USC. But a loss to the Cardinal would push them closer to the cut line, though not necessarily out.
No. 10 Oregon State Beavers (16-15, 7-11) vs. No. 2 USC Trojans (21-10, 12-6), 9 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks)
The Trojans swept the Beavers in the regular season, so an unexpected loss here might lead to some anxiety until Sunday afternoon.
No. 6 Oregon Ducks (21-11, 10-8) vs. No. 3 Utah Utes (19-10, 11-7), approx. 11:30 p.m. (FS1)
The loser of this one drops out of the bid picture entirely.
Conference USA Tournament Quarterfinals
No. 9 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (15-17, 7-11) vs. No. 1 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (24-6, 16-2), 7 p.m. (Stadium/Stadium on Twitter)
The Blue Raiders, a 10 seed in this projection, probably need to reach the final to remain in the at-large pool.
But that’s not all that’s going on today, as 56 conference tournament games are on the schedule for this Thursday. You can find info for all of them at Conference Tournament Central. I’ll be back later today with bubble updates as events warrant.
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