Maryland basketball in the Mark Turgeon era has been defined by unfulfilled promise. The team has recruited well, stocked up with NBA-level talent (four players are in the NBA right now), yet proceeded to underwhelm not only in the NCAA Tournament, but in the regular season as well. Maryland’s made the tournament four times in eight years under Turgeon, but never advanced past the Sweet 16 or ranked higher than a No. 4 seed.
Why Maryland basketball fans should actually be optimistic this time
This Terps team, led by Jalen Smith, looks different than the rest in the Mark Turgeon era.
This year’s preseason hype, where Maryland ranked No. 7 in the AP Poll, felt all too familiar. Fans lived through the 2015-16 team that began the year at No. 3 in the polls only to see it flame out in the NCAA tournament, when a starting lineup of elite recruits never clicked and ultimately fell in the Sweet 16 as a mere No. 5 seed.
But this year, the Terps’ elite ranking looks like it’s for real.
The Terps are currently 9-0, with five wins over KenPom top-100 teams, three of them coming by double-digits. Maryland’s winning confidently with the No. 8 offense and No. 14 defense in the country. This is one of the most balanced teams in America to this point.
For once, this doesn’t look like it’s a trap. Here’s why.
Mark Turgeon’s figured out small lineups are his best lineups
Turgeon’s never been the strongest offensive coach, and some of that has had to do with his idea of the perfect college scoring system. Often, Turgeon’s stacked two traditional bigs side-by-side, packing the paint in a game that’s trending towards the three-point line. It’s resulted in high-turnover rates as the offense stagnates with poor spacing. But this year, he’s found his core unit early, and they’re thriving.
Maryland’s best five include three guards, a wing and a center. Senior point guard Anthony Cowan and sophomore big man Jalen Smith are all-conference talents leading the way, and their play is supplemented by sophomores Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins, and junior Darryl Morsell. Aside from 6’10 Smith, no player stands taller than 6’6.
Playing small has benefited Maryland on both ends of the floor in areas where they’ve never been good. A program notorious for its sloppiness with the ball, Maryland’s turnover rate of just 15.9 percent ranks No. 24 in the nation. With four able ball-handlers, Maryland has a limitless supply of shot-creators able to drive to the rim and kick out. That’s important. The Terps aren’t a great three-point shooting team, but they’re a great offensive rebounding one, making lost possessions matter that much more. Turgeon’s Terps have never ranked better than No. 145 in turnover rate before, and ranked below No. 200 the last three seasons.
Playing smaller has also put the Terps’ best defenders on the floor, instead of merely their tallest. Morsell (6’5) may be the height of a guard, but he’s so quick and strong that he’s able to defend anyone from a point guard to a wing. Wiggins is just 6’6, but his long wingspan helps contest shots from power forwards, and Smith’s 7-foot-1 wingspan is a physical presence in itself. Maryland’s non-steal turnover rate (it means what it sounds like) is No. 52 in the country. That’s the first time it’s ever ranked inside the top-100 under Turgeon, and it was 15th-worst out of all 353 teams last season.
Maryland’s guard are really damn good
The Terps have often been short-handed on guards through the Turgeon era, struggling to find ball-handlers to spell starters. That isn’t a problem this year. Cowan is the team’s best player, scoring 16 points with four assists on 41 percent three-point shooting. He commands the ball for most of the game. But Maryland isn’t toast if he’s sitting out (or playing poorly.)
Morsell is Cowan’s relief passer. He’s come on strong in the past few weeks, finally putting together his off-the-charts athleticism for basketball good. He isn’t an elite scorer, but he’s an okay one, who has instead learned how to create for others. He had three assists in a 21-point win over Marquette, and four in a 21-point win over Notre Dame. He’s quick, gets to the rim, and knows how to distribute.
Ayala is Cowan’s relief scorer. The 6’5 guard can shoot from distance, and pull-up in the paint. He’s scoring 11 points per game on 44 percent from the field, and isn’t even shooting well from distance yet (27 percent after shooting 41 percent a year ago.) If his outside game starts clicking, Maryland’s offense will jump to another level.
Maryland’s blowing out teams, not merely winning. That matters.
A win is a win come tournament time, but a blowout win means a team is really in business. So far, Maryland has been, as their closest win was by seven points against Harvard.
A blowout Orlando Invitational Tournament championship win over Marquette is the Terps’ marquee win to date. Maryland shot the ball fine, but not spectacularly (48 percent from the field, 35 percent from three), and still won by 21 points over a KenPom top-30 team. Defensively, Maryland was sharp, keeping Markus Howard, fresh off 50- and 41-point back-to-back-games, to just six points on 12 shots. This wasn’t an off shooting night for Howard, either. Morsell and Wiggins had his number all afternoon. Maryland won because its system was sharp.
Nothing about the Terps’ first nine games has been a fluke.
Maryland has concerns still
The Terps are firmly in the conversation as the best team in the country, but there are still pieces to put together. The main one is simple: can this team shoot well enough from distance to win against top-ranked teams?
Through nine games, Maryland’s only shooting 31 percent from three-point range, which isn’t good. It ranks No. 233 in the country. Aside from Cowan, nobody’s been consistent. Smith’s shooting form looks improved, but he’s only made 4-of-18 threes. Wiggins was a sharpshooter last year (41 percent), but he’s only made 16-of-51. Ayala’s shooting under 27 percent, and Morsell’s made just 31 percent.
It’s early. The sample sizes are small. But fans shouldn’t be planning a parade route just yet. Free throw shooting percentages are one of the best indicators of how good a shooter really is, simply because everyone takes the same shot from the same distance without any defenders. Wiggins has only made 13-of-20 shots from the line so far (65 percent). Last year, Wiggins made 26-of-30. That’s great, but it’s a small sample. Was Wiggins’ great shooting last season a fluke?
Aside from shooting, Maryland’s also played good, but not great opponents. They’ve yet to play one of KenPom’s top-20, but have three tough games coming up against Illinois (No. 44), Penn State (No. 23) and Seton Hall (No. 14.) How Maryland handles its schedule through the holidays will say a lot about what they’ve built.
This year is a big one for Maryland basketball. Smith is likely headed to the NBA, and Cowan’s set to graduate, with no heir apparent in sight. Through nine games, fans should feel optimistic. This team looks like one that can break out of the old Maryland mold.
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