At this point last season, I reviewed non-conference results in a more traditional way — examining surprises and disappointments, helpful wins and disappointing losses. But for 2020, I wanted to try something different, namely examining which conferences set themselves up for Selection Sunday success through their members’ quality non-conference wins — results that helped establish these teams in the higher reaches NET rankings.
Bracketology 2020: Looking back at non-conference play
Why does it look like the Big Ten is set to dominate the 2020 NCAA tournament? What’s causing the ACC to struggle nationally? It turns out the answer lies in how the two conferences performed in November and December.
Road games take on increased importance in league play, since only home wins against the NET’s top 30 teams qualify for Quadrant 1 status on a team’s selection sheet, and Quad 2 wins are similarly restricted to the top 75. But with away wins over top-75 teams falling under Quad 1 and Quad 2 road wins encompassing teams ranked between 76th and 135th, plenty of quality win opportunities remain for teams in conferences that have teams in these groups. However, for a team to establish itself in the NET’s upper echelon, it needed to virtually run the table during non-conference play or record quality wins during November and December.
Throughout the remainder of the season, I’ll touch on remaining Quad 1 and 2 win opportunities, but for now I’m just setting a baseline for that analysis.
A few words about the NET
Before I wrote any grand pronouncements about the NET, I wanted to look at how the rankings of roughly one year ago (through Jan. 8, 2019) compared to those used on Selection Sunday. This is what stood out when I looked at the top 100 of each:
- Conference representations were largely, but not completely, stable. While 16 leagues saw their total membership in the final top 100 either exactly match their January number or fall within one plus or minus, five conferences saw their totals change by two or more teams. The ACC dropped three teams over the final two months of the 2018-19 season, while the American Athletic an WAC each gained a trio of teams — an impressive statement for the latter conference since it had zero top 100 teams in early January.
- There was also little variation in the split of top 100 membership between the Power 5+Big East+American group and the 25 mid-major conferences. The power leagues saw their top 100 representation drop by just four teams between January and March, from 73 to 69.
- However, both January and Selection Sunday’s top 75s featured the same 54-21 power advantage. While the mid-majors made some late gains in the top 30 (jumping from three teams to five), the number of mids ranked between 76th and 100th rose from six to 10. Teams slotted in that range don’t typically earn at-large bids.
Looking at the NET from Thursday morning (through Jan. 8, 2020), the power conferences boast 73 of the top 100, an increase of one from 2019. However, the top 75 features a more pronounced 58 to 17 major conference advantage.
So, while we don’t have a long track record to look back upon when evaluating the NET, the information we do have makes me feel relatively comfortable about forecasting how it will shake out when March 2020 arrives. With that in mind, let’s take a look at how the power conferences and key mid-majors set themselves up for success or failure over November and December.
Conferences are listed in order of the number of bids projected in Tuesday’s bracket. The NET referenced was published the morning of Jan. 9, 2020, so there may have been changes between then and publication.
Big Ten
Five-tournament (2015–2019) NCAA bid trend: 7–7–7–4–8
NET-ranked teams: 7 (top 30), 5 (31–75), 0 (76–100)
Total number of Quad 1 and 2 non-conference wins (average): 31 (2.21 per team)
Total number of Quad 1 non-conference wins (average): 11 (0.785 per team)
Teams without either a Quad 1 or 2 non-conference win (2): Illinois, Nebraska
Teams without a Quad 1 non-conference win only (2): Minnesota, Northwestern
Tuesday’s projection featured 10 Big Ten teams. And with 12 conference members ranked in the NET’s top 55 on Thursday morning, there’s a non-zero chance that the 2011 Big East’s record of 11 bids could fall on Selection Sunday evening. In its second season scheduling 20 conference games, the Big Ten continued the improvement of its abbreviated non-league slate that was first evident in 2018-19. Nearly all of the conference’s contenders recorded at least two quality wins during their 11 non-league contests. Those victories provide a strong base for the Big Ten’s overall metrics, which translate into its dominant presence in the NET. That’s a factor likely to benefit the two league members that failed to record either a Quad 1 or 2 win in November and December — Minnesota and Illinois.
Three Big Ten teams managed to record four Quad 1/2 victories before league play kicked into full gear, and all of them are surprising names — Indiana, Iowa and Penn State. However, only Ohio State recorded more than one Quad 1 win (over Villanova in the Gavitt Games and Kentucky in Las Vegas).
Big East
Five-tournament NCAA bid trend: 6–5–7–6–4
NET-ranked teams: 3 (top 30), 6 (31–75), 1 (76–100)
Total number of Quad 1 and 2 non-conference wins (average): 29 (2.9 per team)
Total number of Quad 1 non-conference wins (average): 13 (1.3 per team)
Teams without either a Quad 1 or 2 non-conference win (1): Providence
Teams without a Quad 1 non-conference win only (1): Marquette
In 2019, the Big East secured just four bids — a number that equalled its lowest total since the split with the American Athletic. However, 2014’s quartet included a two and three seed, while last year’s group was led by a five and six. That decline was down to a disappointing non-conference performance that saw the Big East finish just one game above .500 in contests against its power rivals. However, an early season resurgence sees the Big East back in the six bid range in early January.
While the conference as a whole recorded just 24 power victories total in November and December 2018, the Big East managed to pick up nearly three Quad 1 and 2 victories per member in 2019. Sure, that’s not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison, but even teams that struggled last fall, like Georgetown and DePaul, were able to grab quality wins this year. And with results like that, it’s no surprise that the 2020 Big East has 90 percent of its membership in the NET top 75 — compared to just 60 percent a year ago. And with Providence, the lone team outside of the top 75 off to a 3-0 start in conference play, it might not be long until all 10 teams make it.
Butler’s six non-conference Quad 1 and 2 wins lead the country, with every Big East team except for Providence owning at least two.
Pac-12
Five-tournament NCAA bid trend: 4–7–4–3–3
NET-ranked teams: 4 (top 30), 5 (31–75), 0 (76–100)
Total number of Quad 1 and 2 non-conference wins (average): 24 (2 per team)
Total number of Quad 1 non-conference wins (average): 9 (0.75 per team)
Teams without either a Quad 1 or 2 non-conference win (4): California, Oregon State, UCLA, Washington State
Teams without a Quad 1 non-conference win only (2): Arizona, Arizona State
The 2019 Pac-12 would have loved to experience the Big East’s one-year dip in form. Over the past five NCAA tournaments, the conference has earned either three or four bids, save 2016’s seven-bid haul. And last season’s three bids felt like a gift, particularly as Oregon needed to win the Pac-12 tournament to get in and Arizona State ended up in the First Four. But the conference has six teams in Tuesday’s projection and nine squads in the current NET top 75 with three of those in the top 30. One year ago, the Pac-12 had no top-30 squads and just three in the top 75.
However, the picture isn’t totally rosy for the Conference of Champions. For starters, while it averaged exactly two Quad 1 and 2 non-conference wins per team, four teams accounted for 16 of those 24 victories. Only Oregon and USC managed two Quad 1 wins, while a pair of preseason contenders, Arizona and Arizona State managed none. Making matters worse, three Pac-12 teams currently rank outside of the NET top 120. With the conference’s unbalanced 18-game schedule, contenders will struggle a bit to rack up the Quad 1 and 2 win totals in league play that their rivals in the Big 12, Big East and Big Ten will accumulate between now and March 15.
SEC
Five-tournament NCAA bid trend: 5–3–5–8–7
NET-ranked teams: 4 (top 30), 5 (31–75), 2 (76–100)
Total number of Quad 1 and 2 non-conference wins (average): 28 (2 per team)
Total number of Quad 1 non-conference wins (average): 12 (0.86 per team)
Teams without either a Quad 1 or 2 non-conference win (1): Vanderbilt
Teams without a Quad 1 non-conference win only (4): Florida, Mississippi State, Missouri, Texas A&M
The SEC looks set to take a slight step back from its recent resurgence, as its current projected bid total of six is one fewer than 2019’s seven and two below 2018’s eight. And while the conference has four top-30 teams and nine top-75 teams for the second January running, you can’t help but feel like that’s a slight disappointment. Maybe it’s because the preseason favorites, Florida and Kentucky , were rather inconsistent in November and December. Or perhaps it’s the fact the league’s top team in the NET, sixth-ranked Auburn can count just one Quad 1 win among their five Quad 1 and 2 non-conference triumphs. Or it could also be the fact that the five teams outside of the top 75 — including Ole Miss, Mississippi State and South Carolina teams that were expected to be better — could create quality win issues for the rest of the league.
However, the majority of the SEC’s contenders will have one last chance at recording a statement non-league win on Jan. 25 in the Big 12 Challenge. Of the 10 teams participating, only Mississippi State and Texas A&M are currently ranked outside of the top 75. Plus, the strongest of the four teams left out, Georgia, picked up a road win over Memphis in the quartet’s mini-challenge with the American Athletic Conference.
Big 12
Five-tournament NCAA bid trend: 7–7–6–7–6
NET-ranked teams: 3 (top 30), 4 (31–75), 3 (76–100)
Total number of Quad 1 and 2 non-conference wins (average): 25 (2.5 per team)
Total number of Quad 1 non-conference wins (average): 16 (1.6 per team)
Teams without either a Quad 1 or 2 non-conference win (2): Kansas State, TCU
The Big 12 will enter their series with the SEC with an advantage in quality wins, thanks to a strong November and December performance that saw six teams record a minimum of two Quad 1 and 2 non-conference victories. And the five Quad 1 and 2 wins Kansas and West Virginia each recorded are fewer than Butler’s total six, the Jayhawks and Mountaineers both own at least one more Quad 1 win than the Bulldogs’ pair — KU has four and West Virginia three. Then there’s Baylor, whose trio of quality non-conference wins are all of the Quad 1 variety.
However, the Big 12 might not be able to match its 2018-19 Quad 1 and 2 win totals in 2020. That’s because just 70 percent of its membership ranks in the current NET top 75, compared to 90 percent last January. While Texas started the season with a 10-2 mark, only the Longhorns’ victory over Purdue could be considered a quality one. Meanwhile, both Iowa State and Kansas State entered Big 12 play at 7-5. Barring rapid improvement by the trio, their struggles are likely to keep dragging the conference’s March fortunes down.
ACC
Five-tournament NCAA bid trend: 6–7–9–9–7
Current NET-ranked teams: 3 (top 30), 4 (31–75), 6 (76–100)
Total number of Quad 1 and 2 non-conference wins (average): 24 (1.6 per team)
Total number of Quad 1 non-conference wins (average): 11 (0.733 per team)
Teams without either a Quad 1 or 2 non-conference win (3): Clemson, Virginia, Wake Forest
Teams without a Quad 1 non-conference win only (4): Boston College, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Syracuse
The ACC’s first 20-game conference schedule has led to some struggles. For starters, thanks to the decision to play a league game on Opening Night to help push the new ACC Network, nearly half of the conference entered the second game of their season both 0-1 overall and 0-1 in the league. Duke, exempt from this folly due to its participation in the Champions Classic, managed to open the season with a great win over Kansas. And that win in New York would be the peak of the ACC’s non-conference performance
Making matters considerably worse, the ACC didn’t copy the Big Ten’s tactic of complementing an expanded conference schedule with beefed up non-league slates. As a result, the ACC team recorded fewer Quad 1 and 2 non-league wins than the other power conferences. Even against those weaker schedules, the majority of the league stumbled through November and December. For example, injury-plagued North Carolina couldn’t build upon a 2-1 Battle 4 Atlantis performance, finishing 7-4 against its non-league slate. And that might have done irreparable damage to the conference’s NET rankings. While 13 of the ACC’s 15 teams ranked in the NET top 100 in both January 2019 and 2020, this year’s top 30 features just three top-30 teams compared to seven one year ago. In 2019, just four ACC teams ranked between 76th and 100th, six do today.
With road wins providing the bulk of Quad 1 opportunities remaining, the ACC teams sitting outside of the top three of Duke, Florida State and Louisville will be hard pressed to catch up. The lone exception might be 2019’s National Champion, Virginia, as they have three home Quad 1 chances left on their schedule.
American Athletic
Five-tournament NCAA bid trend: 2–4–2–3–4
Current NET-ranked teams: 2 (top 30), 3 (31–75), 2 (76–100)
Total number of Quad 1 and 2 non-conference wins (average): 17 (1.42 per team)
Total number of Quad 1 non-conference wins (average): 6 (0.5 per team)
Teams without either a Quad 1 or 2 non-conference win (1): East Carolina
Teams without a Quad 1 non-conference win only (6): Cincinnati, SMU, South Florida, Tulsa, UCF, UConn
The American’s top Quad 1 non-conference win was a holiday gift for the conference.
As usual, the American Athletic continues to occupy an odd purgatory between the mid-major ranks and true power conference status in basketball. While programs like Wichita State, Memphis and Houston found themselves in Tuesday’s projection, three of the conference’s historic basketball powers, Cincinnati, UConn and Temple, didn’t help the American much during non-conference play, while the remainder of the conference isn’t all that close to the field of 68. Granted, Tulane is showing progress in Ron Hunter’s first season and South Florida’s forecast breakout campaign was over before it started thanks to Alexis Yetna’s season-ending knee injury. And that combination means the American’s overall results haven’t been good. While conference members averaged nearly one-and-a-half quality non-league wins, only six of those 17 victories fall under Quad 1, with Memphis earning two of those.
With an unbalanced schedule and just five teams in the NET top 75, the American Athletic is going to struggle to match its four bid total of a season ago. 2018’s total of three is a far more likely scenario at this point.
Mid-Majors
Five-tournament NCAA at-large bid trend: 6–3–3–3–4
Current NET-ranked teams: 4 (top 30), 13 (31–75), 11 (76–100)
Top 75 mid-majors either without a Quad 1 or 2 non-conference win (3): Akron, Furman, Santa Clara
Top 75 mid-majors without a Quad 1 non-conference win only (4): Duquesne, Louisiana Tech, Saint Louis, Yale
The best mid-major non-conference win of the season was the result of the highlight of the season so far.
There was a time this fall when it looked like mid-majordom might meet or exceed 2015’s combined at-large bid total of six — and remember that happened when Wichita State was still in the Missouri Valley. There was hope for as many as six Atlantic 10 bids, up to three for the Mountain West — and even an outside shot at two for the Ivy. But reality and inconsistency struck. Former top-75 fixtures like the New Mexico, Utah State and even Cameron Indoor Stadium-conquering Stephen F. Austin have tumbled. The Lumberjacks’ case is particularly instructive for how devastating conference play can be for quality mid-majors. Kyle Keller’s squad ranked 43rd in the NET before Wednesday’s home game against then-318th-ranked Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. SFA’s 73-72 loss dropped them 36 places in the NET, down to 79th. That one-point loss might have cost the Lumberjacks both their at-large hopes and maybe a seed line should they win the Southland’s auto bid.
Defeats like that make it more likely the mid-majors will again struggle to collectively earn more than four at-larges in 2020. Sure, Gonzaga looks as good as usual and surprising Dayton and San Diego State have spent time in the NET top 10 alongside the Bulldogs, but none of their respective conference rivals have yet been able to consistently establish themselves in the top 30.
Still, VCU, BYU and Saint Mary’s have come close to cracking that group. And their quality is why the Atlantic 10 and West Coast conferences look like the best source for mid-major at-larges this March. Otherwise, it might take Championship Fortnight losses by San Diego State or ASUN favorite Liberty to improve the mid-majors’ fortunes. And with the bubble looking as confounding as ever, that may not be a bad thing for neutrals.
There’s one interesting thing about the 34 Quad 1 and 2 non-conference wins recorded by the 18 mid-majors most likely to challenge for an at-large — just one of those victories, VCU’s over LSU, came at home. That fact could serve as a major boost for these teams during the Selection Committee’s deliberations.
I’ll be back with a full bracket projection on Tuesday.
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