Loyola-Chicago is no Cinderella in the men’s NCAA tournament

It was easy to bemoan Loyola-Chicago’s bad luck when the men’s NCAA tournament bracket was announced on Selection Sunday. The Ramblers went to the Final Four in 2018, and had an even better resume this year. Loyola was a top-10 team in the country according to KenPom’s efficiency standings and the NET rankings, yet it still got stuck with a No. 8 seed from the committee.

It’s not just that Loyola was badly under-seeded. The Ramblers had a tough first round matchup with ACC tournament champion Georgia Tech in their opening round game. Their prize if they won was a showdown with in-state rival Illinois, a team that looked like a legitimate national championship favorite after dominating the second half of their schedule and winning the Big Ten tournament.

If it felt like the Ramblers got a raw deal for their placement in the bracket, it was also true that the teams in their path had their own misfortune. Illinois learned that lesson the hard way on Sunday.

Loyola dismantled the best Illinois basketball team in 15 years with the world watching in the round of 32, coming away with a convincing 71-58 win that felt like anything but a fluke. The Illini were going to have to beat good teams eventually after entering the tournament with national championship aspirations, but they didn’t expect to see a team this good this soon.

When the Ramblers went to the Final Four in 2018, they needed to win the Missouri Valley tournament just to make the field. That wouldn’t have been the case this year: Loyola had a strong case for an at-large after winning the conference in the regular season, but they went out and won the MVC tournament anyway.

Loyola has again broken into the Sweet 16, but this time they aren’t catching anyone by surprise. The Ramblers are a mid-major, yes, but they aren’t a Cinderella. If they make the Final Four again this year, it’s because they are truly one of the best teams in the sport.

Loyola entered the NCAA tournament with the No. 1 rated defense in the country according to KenPom. They proved it against Illinois.

The Ramblers held Illinois to just 0.88 points per possession. It was the Illini’s worst offensive showing of the season by far, and only the second time all year were held under one point per possession on offense (the other time was in a Jan. 2 win over Purdue when they scored .96 points per possession).

Loyola’s defense is good in every aspect, but they are truly elite in two areas: keeping opponents off the offensive glass, and avoiding sending players to the foul line. Both areas again shined vs. the Illini: Loyola finished with two more offensive boards than the Illini, and shot nine more free throws.

Given that Illinois had arguably the tournament’s most hulking presence in Kofi Cockburn, both are incredible accomplishments for Loyola. Head coach Porter Moser has a defense that travels, and that will be the case regardless of who they face as long as they’re alive in the tournament.

Cameron Krutwig and Lucas Williamson will go down as two of the greatest players in Loyola history. As freshmen, Krutwig started at center and Williamson became the sixth man on the Ramblers’ Final Four team in 2018. Now as seniors, they’re powering the program on another deep NCAA tournament run.

Krutwig is a college basketball superstar by any definition. A graduate of suburban Jacobs High School, Krutwig won Missouri Valley Player of the Year this season by putting together a monster campaign on both ends of the floor. The big man places in the top-five in the country in KenPom’s Player of the Year algorithm, and ranks top-10 in all-in-one stats like BPM and PER according to Sports Reference.

Krutwig is so good because he’s a tremendous post scorer while also being one of the best passing centers in the country. He graded out as ‘excellent’ on post-ups throughout the year by scoring in the 87th percentile on one of the biggest diets of attempts in the country. His scoring ability makes his passing even more dangerous. Loyola’s entire offense is built around Krutwig’s ability to hit cutters in tight windows, and it worked against Illinois again and again.

Williamson is less of a household name, but he’s just as vital to the Ramblers’ success. He won Defensive Player of the Year in the Missouri Valley this year and gives Loyola a lockdown 6’4 wing who can bully bigger players with his strength. On offense, Williamson is a smart cutter who has worked hard to turn himself into a reliable spot-up shooter, hitting 35.9 percent of his threes this year on 117 attempts.

It’s an incredible luxury to have two players with Final Four experience under their belt. Loyola is making the most of it.

Porter Moser is on his way to building a sustainable winner at Loyola, and his work against Illinois showed just how sharp he can be as an in-game coach. Moser came out with a perfect game-plan to take advantage of Illinois’ shortcomings, and his counterpart Brad Underwood failed to make the necessary adjustments to swing the game back in his team’s favor.

Moser helped stymie the Illini offense by blitzing ball handlers off the pick-and-roll and having his team scramble to recover to the open man. It helped force Illinois into 17 turnovers and took their best players out of rhythm. It worked in part because the Illini did not have a big who could act as a release valve passer in those situations — for as good as Cockburn is, he finished the season with five assists in 31 games. Illinois kept running into the same problem possession after possession.

Moser deserves to be at the top of a power conference team’s wish list this offseason, but it’s worth noting he already turned down an offer from St. John’s a few years back. A native of the Chicago suburbs, it sure seems like Moser would need the right opportunity to leave. If not, Loyola should continue being winner in the MVC even after Krutwig and Williamson depart.

The Ramblers won’t have an easy game against No. 12 seed Oregon State in the Sweet 16, because the Beavers might be the hottest team in America this side of Gonzaga right now. But Loyola should feel confident going into that matchup regardless of how well Oregon State is playing at the moment.

If Loyola can win that game, they’ll face the winner of No. 2 seed Houston vs. No. 11 seed Syracuse. We’ve seen the Ramblers go to the Final Four only a few years ago. Why can’t it happen again with two key players from that squad leading the way?

In a tournament that has already had so many upsets, it makes no sense to put a ceiling on what this Loyola team can accomplish. The numbers have suggested this is an elite team all season long. Beating Illinois does, too. Loyola might be a No. 8 seed and they might still be a mid-major, but this team is far too good to be called a Cinderella.