Over the last decade or so, every single national champion has brought in more four- and five-star recruits than two and three stars over the previous four recruiting cycles.
The 2015 Playoff field could have more non-elite recruiting schools than elites
TCU, Baylor, Utah and Michigan State -- step on up.
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
In the preseason, I wondered if that might change due to the College Football Playoff, which brings in double the competitors as the BCS did. In theory, this would make it easier for a non-blue blood program to get a shot at a title, but tougher to actually win once it gets there.
The chances already look better than 2014. Three of the four teams in the inaugural field (Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State) were elite recruiters. This year, we could have the inverse: three non-elite recruiting teams in the field of four.
The 12 programs that qualify as having elite recruiting, going by the standard set above: Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA and USC.
Let’s take a look at the current national title odds from Bovada Sportsbook.
Four of the top eight schools in the title odds are from the SEC, but it’s unlikely the league lands more than one team in the field. In all, six of the top nine teams in the national title odds are still from the super elite recruiters group, despite three of them already suffering a loss.
Despite some suspect play, Ohio State has the best title odds due to an awesome collection of talent and a cakewalk of a schedule (plus some likely built-in bias of being the defending national champ). If Ohio State runs the table and one of the expected SEC favorites wins its league, the playoff will still probably be won by an elite recruiting school.
These teams will be adding more losses, however. There are nine games remaining between the 12 elite recruiting schools.
Of the teams that don't meet the recruiting standard, Baylor has looked awesome. TCU is clearly not the team it was expected to be thanks to injury after injury on defense, but now Oklahoma seems like much more of a contender for the Big XII title than previously thought. With the Big XII champion being someone other than Texas, it is a lock that the league's representative will not meet the previous national title recruiting standard.
The Pac-12 also seems somewhat likely to crown a champion that falls short of the recruiting standard, with Utah and Stanford leading the way, though USC or UCLA could still win the league. And questions exist about whether the Pac-12 champion would be selected by the committee if it has two losses, which is quite possible and perhaps even probable.
Clemson is going to be favored in all of its remaining games, and should perhaps be even higher on the odds list, though the Tigers barely squeaked by Notre Dame despite being plus four in turnovers.
Michigan State’s path now seems much harder thanks to the Spartans’ pedestrian play and the emergence of Michigan earlier than expected in the Jim Harbaugh era. But it is conceivable to think the Spartans could run through the Big Ten, and they won’t face a quality opponent from the West should they make the Big Ten Championship Game.
There’s a very good reason to expect the elite recruiting teams to remain in playoff contention: they’re usually very, very good. Even with struggling outliers like Texas and Auburn, those 12 programs are 42-9 against non-elite recruiting schools.
And there is another thing to consider: depth. As injuries mount, the programs who recruit at the highest level likely have somewhat better capabilities to weather injuries, as their players are likely more physically ready to play as freshmen and sophomores.
But early returns this season show we could end up with more non-elite recruiters in the final field than the usual crowd. Do you think this is the year the recruiting giants fail to take home the title? Vote in the poll and let us know in the comment section.
