Ohio State might not be able to take a big enough 2017 class to end Alabama’s streak of crooting titles. But the Buckeyes have a chance to do something special either way: have arguably the most selective recruiting class ever.
Ohio State’s 2017 recruiting class might be nothing but blue-chips from top to bottom
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The OSU class, which ranks No. 1 on the 247Sports Composite near the halfway-ish point between Signing Days, is made up of three five-stars, 10 four-stars, and the country’s No. 1 kicker. That’s 13 blue-chips out of 14 commits. That only three-star is the kicker, since specialists won’t ever be rated higher than that. But he’s a five-star in Kicker World, and teams have to take kickers, so let’s say 14-of-14.
Over Alabama’s six-year reign as the No. 1 recruiter, the Tide have averaged 19.7 blue-chips per class, if we count No. 1 kickers and punters as blue-chips. If OSU takes about five more four-/five-stars and calls it a 2017 but adds no other players, that’s probably not a nation-leading class, though it’s a whole other kind of impressive. I’ll refer to Bud Elliott’s blue-chip ratio, a solid long-term national championship predictor.
At this point in the cycle, there’s logic behind focusing more on blue-chips than on entire classes, as Bud explains. Florida has a small group of only 10 commits and ranks No. 24, but half are blue-chips. Tennessee ranks No. 11 with 17 commits, but only two are blue-chips. UF’s class has a stronger foundation and more room to grow, while UT’s is establishing a ceiling.
If we based the early rankings on nothing but blue-chip commits, the top 20 would look like this, with current Composite rank in parentheses:
1. Ohio State (1): 14, with more likely coming soon
2. Alabama (2): 13, counting the No. 1 long snapper
3. Oklahoma (3): 11, counting the No. 1 punter
4. Florida State (9), Georgia (6), Notre Dame (8): 8
7. Clemson (14), LSU (5), Michigan (4): 7
10. Texas A&M (7): 6, after the country’s two most recent 2017 blue-chip commits
11. Auburn (19), Florida (24), Miami (10): 5
14. Maryland (28), Nebraska (25), North Carolina (16), Penn State (40), Washington (29): 4
19. Arizona (12), USC (23): 3
Falling out of the top 20 would be the Vols, No. 13 Mississippi State, No. 15 Rutgers, No. 17 Iowa, No. 18 Northwestern, and No. 20 South Carolina.
This erases too much nuance, overlooks the difference between No. 1 recruit Najee Harris and the country’s 300th-best player, and treats the 350th-best player like a dramatically lower grade of athlete. So, it’s got clear flaws.
But I think it’s at least as useful for identifying classes likely to finish strong as the overall June rankings are. So, let’s come back to this in February.
And yeah, this stuff matters.
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