Why Alabama’s No. 1 recruiting streak might end at 7 years

The Alabama Crimson Tide have signed the top-ranked recruiting class in college football seven years running. The class that got to campus this summer is, by average player rating, Bama’s best yet. But its run of Signing Day supremacy is in more danger in the class of 2018 than it has been in years.

Alabama’s class stands at 57th in the country, according to the industry-consensus 247Sports Composite, because Bama has just six verbal commitments: five four-stars and the country’s top-ranked punter. The Tide’s class is ranked low because Nick Saban and his staff have moved slowly, waiting on top players instead of taking commitments from players lower on their board. Their remaining targets list is chock full of blue-chips, and the Tide will land a lot of them.

That the Tide will finish with a top-five class is as sure as water staying wet. They’ll probably finish in the top three. But getting to their customary perch at No. 1 might not be possible this year, because of math.

Saban’s desired number: 22.

FBS teams are limited to 85 scholarships at a time, and managing those is a years-long process. In the past few seasons, Bama’s brought on larger classes: 29, 23, 24, 24, and 26.

If you sign roughly 25-man classes every year, you’re going to bump up against the scholarship ceiling, even at a program that regularly sends players to the NFL draft with college eligibility remaining.

Bama’s quality remains high. The average Composite player rating of its current commits is 0.91, and that’s dragged down by having a rated punter. Last year’s average Alabama commit was rated a 0.94.

To finish No. 1, a team needs lots of good players. Last year, Bama finished No. 1, but No. 2 finisher Ohio State had a slightly higher average player rating. Yet the Tide finished Signing Day with 29 signees to Ohio State’s 21, so for the purpose of determining winners, Alabama got the top slot.

Bama’s class last year was so packed that the nation’s No. 93 overall player, defensive end Jarez Parks, spurned offers from all over the country and took a grayshirt in Tuscaloosa. That means he won’t enroll until January, and Alabama gets to decide whether to count his scholarship toward this year’s class or next year’s.

None of Alabama’s No. 1 classes has had fewer than 23 players, and only one had that few. Pulling a No. 1 class with 22 is unlikely.

The Buckeyes currently have the No. 1 class with 15 commitments, and their average rating is a 0.95. If that held, the Buckeyes would finish with the highest average player rating for a full class in the rankings era.

It’ll probably decline, but if Ohio State takes something like 23, it’ll have a great shot to be the team that dethrones Bama.

After the Buckeyes, the picture gets murkier. Clemson is expected to take a small class. Current No. 2 Miami and No. 3 Penn State aren’t likely to finish atop the heap, and powers like Florida State, Michigan, and Georgia have a lot of ground to make up.

It’d be preposterous for Texas to sign the No. 1 class in Tom Herman’s first full year, but it’s not impossible. The Longhorns are No. 6 with just 12 verbal commitments, while no one else in the top eight has fewer than 15 verbals. If Texas’ class gets to around 23 or 24, it could challenge for the top spot.

In public, coaches insist they don’t care about stars and haven’t seen the rankings, because those things can’t measure a kid’s character. Those are stock statements coaches use to defend their classes. Some just want five-star hearts.

Alabama probably won’t finish No. 1 this year, though betting against the Tide is dumb. If the Tide end up at No. 2, Saban will be asked about this as soon as February’s Signing Day (there’s now one in December, too) is over. When Saban says he’s not concerned about the Tide’s ranking, it’ll be a lot more believable than when other coaches say it.

Bama’s class won’t be a usual Bama class because of arithmetic. That won’t do anything to change the Tide’s status as a singular recruiting power.