A 4-4 week brings my season record to 115-106 (52 percent, +$234). Yuck. 55 percent is the goal and the line at which a nice profit is made, and I’ll need a big run to get back to that mark. Visit OddsShark.com for trends throughout the week.
Week 14 college football picks: Bama runs over Auburn, Trojans over Bruins
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With a short slate, I’ll discuss all games, instead of the regular custom of ranked teams.
- I think Texas A&M's defense is absolutely terrible, and that Missouri's could have some trouble stopping Johnny Football. Let's have an old-fashioned Big 12 shootout to decide the SEC East.
- Auburn has been incredibly lucky this year, winning five games by single digits. I look for Alabama to be able to run the football, and for Auburn to be unable to take enough advantage of the Tide's corners. A.J. McCarron is a winner, and isn't going to lose to Auburn as a starter.
- USC seems to be playing up to its talent level, and its excellent defensive line matches up quite nice with the young, inexperienced offensive line of the UCLA Bruins.
- I do not think Nebraska should be favored over Iowa. While I don't think Iowa is a great team, it does have a distinct advantage on both lines of scrimmage, and Nebraska is overvalued due to a large amount of recent luck.
- Stanford's offense might look ahead to the Pac-12 title game, but I don't think its defense will take the day off. I look for a game played in the 40s against Notre Dame.
- Ole Miss has mounting offensive line concerns, and Mississippi State has trouble scoring. This could be an ugly, physical Egg Bowl played in the 40s.
- I think Georgia Tech should be favored over Georgia. The Bulldogs have an undisciplined defense, and are limping into this game without Aaron Murray. And I think the Yellow Jackets will have the motivation edge here, having lost 10 of 11 to Mark Richt.
- Arizona State's defense is underrated, and it is without Marion Grice. Combine that with an underrated Arizona defense, and there is value in the under.
- TCU can play the sort of man coverage that can disrupt Baylor's offense a bit, and I can't imagine Baylor, which just lost one of the biggest games in program history, will be up for this one like it was for last week.
- I think San Jose State can take down Fresno State. The longer Fresno stays undefeated despite not playing like an elite team, the more value is created against the Bulldogs.
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