2013 Big 12 football team preview countdown by Bill Connelly

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

The F/+ Progression chart below looks like a flatline -- a high flatline, but a flatline. The offense and defense have seen plenty of ups and downs in the process, and close-game record has dictated overall success (OU went 1-4 in one-possession games in 2009 and finished 8-5, went 6-0 in such games and finished 12-2 in 2010, and went 10-3 in each of the last two seasons), but the overall product has been almost exactly the same: very good, never quite elite, and prone to random breakdowns.

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

The numbers love Oklahoma State. When the Football Outsiders Almanac 2013 is released next month, it will project Oklahoma State sixth in the country with a 30 percent chance of winning the Big 12.

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

That’s how I defined success for the 2012 Texas Longhorns in last year’s preview. Win eight or nine games again? Check. Solidify a top 25 F/+ ranking? Check. Failing to view that as a success? Big, big check.

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

I spend a decent amount of time talking up mid-majors. I could chew year ear off for 10 minutes on all the ways that last year’s Utah State team was good enough to win the Pac-12 South. I will argue the merits for San Jose State and Fresno State in that race, as well. I will talk up 2010 Nevada, 2011 Toledo, a few different recent BYU teams, this year’s UL teams (-Lafayette and -Monroe), etc.

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

Generally speaking, college football is cold and slow to handle change. You are what you are, and while your short-term fortunes can change, well, the term regression toward the mean was meant for college football. But sometimes the ground changes beneath your feet, and you don’t even realize it until it’s already happened.

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

At one point in his career, Kansas State quarterback Michael Bishop was 22-1 as a starter. He was the perfect Bill Snyder quarterback: powerful, nearly perfect on the option, and capable of throwing the ball about 150 yards sitting down. He would pound away off-tackle, pitch to Eric Hickson, and throw bombs to Darnell McDonald and Aaron Lockett.

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

It’s not like the Tommy Tuberville era was bad. Texas Tech went to (and won) two bowls in three years and went 21-17; those certainly aren’t awful marks for a program that, for instance, went to two bowls and had just four winning seasons from 1979-92. And it’s not like Mike Leach left the cupboard filled to the brim with breakthrough talent. You can do a lot worse than Tuberville did from 2010-12 at Tech, and he should do just fine now that he’s left for Cincinnati.