One Vegas sportsbook thinks that the hypothetical suspension of Johnny Manziel due to his autograph scandal would turn Texas A&M from one of the top title contenders to a team barely even in the mix for a BCS National Championship.
How a Johnny Manziel suspension would alter the national championship race
Sports betting analyst RJ Bell reports that the Las Vegas Hotel’s sportsbook would drop the Aggies -- who he says have received the most action to win the national title -- down to 100/1 shots to win the national title. They had opened at Bovada at 10/1, and before being dropped from boards were at 13/2 -- tied for second with Ohio State, and behind only Alabama. With the uncertainty surrounding Manziel, they’re at 18/1.
100/1? It’s a long way down.
Here’s the area of the board we’re dealing with:
20. Notre Dame: 50/1
20. UCLA: 50/1
22. TCU: 66/1
22. Wisconsin: 66/1
25. Boise State: 100/1
25. Michigan State: 100/1
25. Oregon State: 100/1
28. Ole Miss: 125/1
28: North Carolina: 125/1
They’d be far from randos in the quest for the national title, but they’d go from legit contenders to longshots. As for their place in the SEC, they’d be sixth in the conference, behind Alabama, Georgia, LSU, South Carolina and Florida.
So basically, without Manziel, Texas A&M remains a good football team in Vegas’ eyes -- somewhere around the bottom of the top 25 -- but not a team with a real shot at bringing home the crystal football.
Of course, this isn’t the only way last year’s Heisman winner not playing a down in 2013 would effect lines. Presumably, other teams’ chances would get bumped up, and we’ve already seen lines spring up around Manziel’s potential suspension, such as whether Johnny Football will play Week 1 and whether he’ll win another Heisman. As noted in that post, Vegas has set Manziel’s worth to the Aggies in point spreads at eight points, turning the Aggies from merely 6-point underdogs against Alabama to two full touchdowns.
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