The top 4 matchups in Auburn-Mississippi State, the game of the century of the week

Around 1 p.m. local time on Thursday, a pretty significant line will form at the campus Barnes & Noble. Around 8 a.m. on Saturday, students and alums alike will have their signs and cowbells ready for the first-ever Starkville episode of college football’s gypsy roadshow, College GameDay. And around 2:30 p.m. on Saturday, Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson will be on the scene for kickoff.

It’s all happening. Starkville is hosting the game of the week.

We’re not very good with history. We always want to proclaim something the biggest or best ever, be it a game, a win, a single-game performance. College football’s been around for a while now, and at this point, few occurrences are truly of a “first ever” nature. And to that end, Starkville has been the site of plenty of big games, even of the non-Egg Bowl variety.

In November 1998, the Bulldogs beat No. 9 Arkansas to position themselves for a surprising SEC West title. In November 1994, MSU, winners of four straight, hosted No. 6 Alabama and fell in a 29-25 nailbiter. In November 1992, No. 16 MSU fell to No. 2 Alabama, 30-21. In 1986, an MSU team ranked in the teens hosted No. 7 Auburn and No. 8 Alabama in back-to-back weeks. (The Bulldogs were outscored a combined 73-9.)

Still, MSU’s propensity for maxing out around 15th in the polls, combined with the old habit of playing lots of home games in Jackson (including the win over No. 1 Alabama in 1980), means the Bulldogs perhaps really haven’t played a game at Davis Wade Stadium bigger than this one. In fact, Davis Wade has never hosted a game in which MSU was a top-five team, period.

If big-game magnitude plays a role on Saturday, that says good things for No. 2 Auburn’s chances. The Tigers have played five games against top-15 teams in the last 12 months, and only two of them were at home. They’re 2-1 against top-5 teams in that span. But if No. 3 MSU is relaxed and ready -- and signs point toward relaxation, at least -- then not only does this game feature some fascinating matchups, they’re matchups MSU could win.

Key stat No. 1: Mississippi State’s offense ranks second in overall success rate -- second in rushing, 14th passing, third on standard downs, third on passing downs.

Key stat No. 2: Auburn’s defense ranks 38th in overall success rate -- 38th rushing, 38th passing, 33rd on standard downs, 49th on passing downs.

A&M scored a couple of touchdowns and made a couple of stops in the fourth quarter to make both the score and full-game averages look respectable, but when the game was even slightly in doubt, MSU’s offense was devastatingly efficient.

For all of its strengths, Auburn’s defense has been malleable, particularly on standard downs. The Tigers stiffen as well as anybody in the red zone, and they’ll send a scary pass rush at you on passing downs, but you can find some opportunities to move the ball if your attack is diverse.

Though it feels like ages ago, Prescott had one of the first big games of his career against Auburn last September, rushing for 133 yards and throwing for 213. He’ll need to match those numbers on Saturday. And then he’ll also have to figure out how to actually put the ball in the end zone. That’s easier said than done against AU.

Key stat No. 3: Auburn’s defense allows 2.6 points per scoring opportunity*, fourth in the country.

Key stat No. 4: MSU’s offense averages 5.2 points per scoring opportunity, 18th.

* Scoring opportunities are defined as possessions in which the offense either scored or had a first down inside the opponent’s 40.

Despite decent efficiency numbers, Auburn is allowing just 14.4 points per game this year because of its almost otherworldly (and/or unlikely) ability to make stops when the end zone is within reach. The Tigers tease you by giving you opportunities to score, then taking them away. The game changes when the field behind the defense shrinks, and Auburn’s defense is as good as any in these situations.

Add to that the fact that Auburn’s offense is also elite in this regard -- 5.4 points per opportunity (eighth in the country) -- and you see how Auburn gets ahead. The Tigers convert their opportunities better than you do, and they beat you because of it. Their per-opportunity scoring margin is the best in the country.

Mississippi State isn’t chopped liver; the Bulldogs average 5.2 points per opportunity and allow just 3.3 (15th). But in a game that will provide each team at least five or six chances to score, the difference between field goals and touchdowns could be huge.

The team that punches the ball into the end zone more, wins. This game is pretty simple to analyze sometimes, isn’t it?

Key stat No. 5: Mississippi State’s defense ranks 10th in rushing success rate. Opponents are rushing just 50 percent of the time on standard downs (116th in the country) and 27 percent on passing downs (96th)*.

Key stat No. 6: Auburn’s offense ranks 46th in rushing success rate. The Tigers are rushing 77 percent of the time on standard downs (eighth) and 32 percent on passing downs (58th).

* Standard downs and passing downs figures do not include garbage time, in which the losing team tends to pass constantly.

Marshall might have to have another big passing day to pull out the win in Starkville.

Still, to date, opponents have figured out more ways to force Auburn to pass this year. And everybody has to pass on Mississippi State. Its run defense doesn’t allow much of anything.

Granted, there is a bit of an opponent adjustment required with MSU’s run numbers. Running backs for Southern Miss, UAB, and South Alabama combined for just 3.2 yards per carry, while LSU and Texas A&M backs managed 5.5. But if you remove a 48-yard run by A&M’s Trey Williams, that average sinks to 4.3. Auburn struggled against Kansas State’s sound defensive front -- Artis-Payne and Grant: 90 yards in 28 carries -- and MSU’s run defense is better than KSU’s, if only by a little bit (current Rushing S&P rank: MSU fourth, KSU sixth).

To beat Auburn, you have to force Marshall to throw. The problem is, Marshall can beat you. Over his last nine quarters (the LSU game, the Louisiana Tech game, the fourth quarter against Kansas State), Marshall is 29-for-46 passing (63 percent) for 459 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions with just two sacks. Yards per pass attempt, including sacks, in that span: 9.2.

It won’t be enough for MSU to force him to pass. The Bulldogs will have to stop his passing, too.

Key stat No. 7: MSU opponents have only intercepted two passes in 2014, but have broken up 20 more.

Key stat No. 8: Auburn has picked off seven of 26 defensed passes (27 percent).

Prescott has been incredible. He has not only led MSU into the top five, he has looked good doing it. He’s completing 64 percent of his passes at nearly 16 yards per completion, and he’s thrown 13 touchdown passes to just two picks. Even including a 6.2 percent sack rate that is a bit higher than you’d like (a lot of mobile quarterbacks have higher sack rates, because they trust their legs to get them out of trouble), and despite missing leading receiver Jameon Lewis during the Texas A&M game, he’s averaging 9.0 yards per pass attempt. Anything over 8.0 is good; anything over 9.0 is fantastic.

Toss in his running ability -- 77 non-sack carries for 512 yards and six touchdowns -- and you can see why he’s risen to the No. 2 spot behind Georgia’s Todd Gurley on a lot of Heisman lists.

Still ... he’s been a little bit lucky. On average, about 22 to 23 percent of passes defensed (interceptions plus break-ups) result in interceptions. For Mississippi State this season, that percentage is 9.1. Those 22 defensed passes should have resulted in closer to five picks, not two.

Mississippi State’s receiving corps is deep and exciting. Lewis is a quality No. 1 (23 targets, 15 catches, 223 yards). De’Runnya Wilson and Fred Brown have provided outstanding intermediate and deep options (39 targets, 23 catches, 420 yards, six touchdowns, 20 first downs).

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Really, the key factors in this game are the key factors in every game -- whoever wins the turnover margin, whoever better finishes drives, whoever better avoids passing downs will win.

But there are a lot of unique dynamics, not even including the whole “biggest game ever in Starkville” thing. Can Auburn slow down Prescott in a way nobody has come close to doing in 2014? Can MSU slow down Auburn’s rush like Kansas State did? And will it matter if Williams and Coates are coming up big? Can the Bulldogs make that one final stop like they didn’t in Auburn last year?

The game of the century of the week is a big one -- it always is -- but even putting the stakes and unique GameDay locale aside, the matchups make this one you don’t want to miss.