Mississippi State and Florida State aren’t the only undefeated FBS teams left standing. Marshall has made easy work of their opposition so far this season, bolting to a 9-0 start with an average margin defeat of 47.8-16.6. The problem? The Thundering Herd’s weak schedule, with this week’s game against Rice standing as their toughest matchup of the year by a sizable margin.
Computer says Marshall would go 7-5 against Mississippi State’s schedule
Florida State’s schedule is a different story entirely.
Michael Shroyer-USA TODAY Sports
Marshall's still really good
Marshall's still really good
As a result, Marshall been largely neglected in the polls, remaining shut out of the Playoff rankings in favor of teams like three-loss Texas A&M, who fell 59-0 against Alabama. We’ve seen this before in the BCS with teams like Boise State and TCU, but what if Marshall played the same schedule as their undefeated big school counterparts?
PredictionMachine.com set out to answer this very question, simulating Marshall with Mississippi State’s schedule 50,000 times. It found the Herd would, on average, finish with a 7-5 record.
PredictionMachine also simulated Marshall against Florida State’s schedule, and found Marshall would be favored in every game except road trips to Louisville and Miami. When simulating Marshall and Florida State directly head-to-head, the Seminoles won 55% of the time, by an average score of 31-28.
Previously, the simulation software predicted Florida State would go 8-4 with Mississippi State’s schedule.
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