The Big Ten’s game of the year (non-championship edition) took place last Saturday in East Lansing, with Ohio State running through and throwing over Michigan State.
Nebraska-Wisconsin likely a trenches battle for the Big Ten West
The Huskers-Badgers winner will probably win the division. Can anybody slow down Melvin Gordon and Corey Clement? Wisconsin’s barely even pretending to pass, and still nobody can stop them. (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC.)
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One could make the case that the league’s second-biggest game kicks off Saturday in Madison, when No. 16 Nebraska and No. 20 Wisconsin battle to become the Big Ten West’s likely champion.
Sure, there is a three-way tie for first in the West right now, and No. 25 Minnesota controls its own destiny in the battle. But Jerry Kill’s Gophers face some incredible degree of difficulty down the stretch -- they host Ohio State this weekend (win probability: 15 percent) then travel to both Nebraska (19 percent) and Wisconsin (21 percent). If they can go 2-1 in these games, either beating Nebraska and Wisconsin or taking down Ohio State and the NU-UW winner, they’ll win the division.
There is a very small chance that happens. Like, four percent. So yeah, it’s probably the NU-UW winner.
So who wins on Saturday? Thanks to Wisconsin’s stellar recent play, the odds have shifted in favor of the Badgers, whom F/+ projects to win by two or three points and whom Vegas currently favors by 6.5. But these teams are quite similar at the moment, and we’ll find the winner when we get the answer to a couple of questions.
1. Which Nebraska front shows up?
The Husker defense ranks just 48th in Rushing S&P+. Nebraska has a top-notch pass defense, but that only matters so much against a Wisconsin team that really doesn’t want to pass. The Badgers have run the ball 68 percent of the time on standard downs (20th in the country) and 47 percent on passing downs (ninth).
Whether the quarterback is Joel Stave or Tanner McEvoy, Wisconsin's success will be derived from how well the Badgers move on the ground.
Nebraska's season rush defense numbers aren't great, but the Huskers have had their moments. Northwestern's Justin Jackson and Illinois' Josh Ferguson combined for 189 yards on 33 carries (5.7 per carry), and Miami star Duke Johnson had 93 on 18 (5.2), but Purdue's Akeem Hunt, Rutgers' Justin Goodwin and Desmon Peoples, and Michigan State's Jeremy Langford totaled just 240 on 75 (3.2).
The more the run is a focus of your offense, it seems, the better Nebraska performs. But performing well against Melvin Gordon and Corey Clement could mean allowing six yards per carry. The two have been devastating this year, and as the featured back, Gordon continues to post inconceivable numbers. A year after gaining 1,609 yards in just 206 carries (7.8), he's gained 1,501 in 198 (7.6) this season. He and Clement have combined to gain more than 200 rushing yards -- again, with minimal threat of the pass -- in seven straight games.
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2. What happens when Nebraska falls behind schedule?
Nebraska's stats are predictably similar to Wisconsin's in a lot of ways, but while both teams play solid defense and both run the ball on standard downs, Nebraska trusts quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. more than Wisconsin trusts Stave and McEvoy. Nebraska rushes 74 percent of the time on standard downs (12th in the country) but runs only 31 percent of the time on passing downs (77th).
Armstrong is rewarding the faith. Nebraska ranks 22nd in Passing Downs S&P+, and even if the passing is a bit all-or-nothing (Amstrong is completing just 47 percent on third-and-4 or more, but he's averaging 18.3 yards per completion), there have been enough alls to make it work. Nebraska rarely falls behind schedule with Ameer Abdullah carrying the load, but when the Huskers do, Armstrong is sometimes capable of making a play.
Armstrong is going to have to make passes in the face of an active Wisconsin front seven, however, especially if Abdullah isn't 100 percent healthy. (Abdullah injured his knee in the first quarter of Nebraska's last game against Purdue.) Wisconsin ranks third in Adj. Sack Rate, led by linebackers Vince Biegel and Derek Landisch, and has picked up the pace in recent weeks -- 13 sacks in the first five games, 15 in the last four.
Defensive coordinator Dave Aranda is figuring out the right buttons to push, and despite quite a bit of turnover in the offseason (Wisconsin had to replace four of its top six on the defensive line and all four starting linebackers), the Badgers are back up to 10th in Def. F/+. Aranda is doing an incredible job.
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If Abdullah is good to go, and if Nebraska is able to make at least a few plays in the passing game, the Huskers’ defense (16th in Def. F/+) could be more than good enough to win this game. But between the Camp Randall effect, Wisconsin’s recent improvement, and Abdullah’s injury, one has to figure the Badgers have a slight edge overall.
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