The committee ranks 25 teams each week, even though the Playoff will only include its top four teams. It ranks more than four teams in part because its final rankings also decide which teams go to the four BCS 2.0 games and in part because weekly top 25s are good for business.
Marshall’s not in the Playoff rankings. OK. Why not Boise State or Colorado State?
The Playoff committee’s top 25 doesn’t include any non-power teams, even though at least one or two have records that stack up.
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So the committee matches up six games. That’s 12 teams. But, among another concern or two, one of 12 spots is reserved for the highest-ranking non-power-conference champion. That team will often rank outside the top 12, so 25 it is.
Since East Carolina ranked No. 23 a month ago, the committee hasn’t ranked a non-power. Chairman Jeff Long said Tuesday that 10-0 Marshall is “very close,” but didn’t express how close. (An AP Poll-esque “Also Receiving Votes” group would help. The Herd rank No. 18 in that poll, with Colorado State No. 22 and Boise State the unofficial No. 28.)
The case against Marshall is simple: its schedule might be the country’s easiest. It’s blown away bad teams as a ranked team should, and the polls and computers approve. But let’s use the committee’s rules, which favor wins over teams with winning records and discount margin of victory.
That case isn’t as strong against the other two top mid-majors:
| Team | vs. ranked teams | vs. unranked teams | vs. FBS | vs. .500+ FBS* | vs. power-conference | Playoff ranking |
| Boise State | 0-1 | 8-1 | 8-2 | 5-2 | 0-1 | NR |
| Clemson | 1-3 | 6-0 | 6-3 | 4-3 | 6-3 | 22 |
| Colorado State | 0-0 | 9-1 | 8-1 | 3-1 | 2-0 | NR |
| Louisville | 0-2 | 7-1 | 6-3 | 3-2, plus Virginia loss | 5-3 | 24 |
| Marshall | 0-0 | 10-0 | 9-0 | 3-0** | 0-0 | NR |
| Minnesota | 0-2 | 7-1 | 6-3 | 3-2, plus Illinois loss | 4-3 | 25 |
| Missouri | 0-1 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 5-1, plus Indiana loss | 5-2 | 20 |
| Nebraska | 0-2 | 8-0 | 7-2 | 2-2 | 5-2 | 23 |
| Oklahoma | 0-3 | 7-0 | 7-3 | 4-3 | 5-3 | 21 |
| USC | 1-2 | 6-1 | 7-3 | 4-3 | 6-3 | 19 |
** Marshall beat Ohio, which was .500 until losing post-rankings.
- CSU and Marshall haven’t played ranked teams. But Boise State gave No. 8 Ole Miss 45 tough minutes in SEC country and a much better challenge than, say, No. 20 Missouri gave No. 10 Georgia at home or No. 23 Nebraska gave No. 16 Wisconsin.
- Boise State and Marshall haven’t beaten powers (the Broncos pounded BYU, but the Cougars are closer to a non-power under the current setup). But CSU won at ACC bowl-bound Boston College, which beat No. 19 USC, and beat the Pac-12’s Colorado, which took No. 9 UCLA to double overtime. And Boise State beat CSU by two scores.
- Marshall hasn’t beaten decent teams. But Boise State plays zero FCS teams and has beaten more .500 or better FBS teams than Nebraska’s played.
- Boise State lost to 8-2 Air Force on the road in a seven-turnovers catastrophe. But, like, No. 20 Missouri lost to 3-7 Indiana at home while losing the ball only once.
Not every weekly ranking requires a non-power. The Playoff committee’s under no obligation to include one. The AP doesn’t always.
If it comes down to it in December, the committee will rank beyond 25 until it finds a mid-major it deems worthy of having a number by its name. Maybe Boise State’s 27th or so in the invisible part of this week’s rankings, with the others nearby. Would be nice to know either way.
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