From a national perspective, Week 13 is a letdown. Of your seven primary contenders -- Florida State and the six one-loss teams (Alabama, Oregon, Mississippi State, TCU, Ohio State, Baylor) -- FSU’s home game against Boston College is the trickiest. Sure, two-loss contenders like Ole Miss, UCLA, and Georgia, could creep into the race in Week 14. But for now, those teams wait for help.
Ole Miss vs. Arkansas still has plenty on the line for both teams
The No. 8 Rebels hope to stay in the title race. The Razorbacks want to break a bowl drought. Besides, you like it when rocks smash together, right?
Luckily, college football can be big for reasons other than contention. It is one of the sport’s strengths. The biggest prize isn’t the only prize.
Ole Miss rues its devastating loss to Auburn, and Arkansas hoped for more than 5-5 in Bret Bielema’s second season. But when the Rebels and Hogs kick off in Fayetteville (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS), they’ll have plenty on the line.
For Arkansas, it’s simple: get to six. Since winning the 2011 season’s Cotton Bowl, the Razorbacks lost coach Bobby Petrino, then went 7-17. They have rebounded (current F/+ rank: 30th), but a 1-3 record in one-possession games has kept their season tamped down in the brutal SEC West. A bowl is the only reward remaining, but it’s a good one for a team going through a drought.
Meanwhile, this might be the best-ever Ole Miss team that wasn’t coached by John Vaught. (Sort by SRS, which stands for Sports Reference’s Simple Rating System, and you’ll see 2014 grades out fifth among 109 teams.)
The Rebels were perhaps the nation’s best team before a tough loss at LSU. They were still in position to make a run but lost to Auburn because of late red zone fumbles and an injury to star Laquon Treadwell. It was one of the most painful losses imaginable, and after two bye weeks (a game against Presbyterian, followed by an actual week off), the Rebels look to finish strong.
Beating Arkansas and Mississippi State next weekend would give the Rebels only their second 10-win season since 1971 and secure a lofty bowl position. Plus, it would knock rival MSU out of the title race. And it might position them in both the SEC race (if Alabama loses to Auburn) and the title race (if a couple of one-loss teams suffer upsets).
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Let’s look at some of the key matchups.
Hogs vs. leverage
Key Stat No. 1: Arkansas runs the ball 72 percent of the time on standard downs, 15th in the country. The Razorbacks average 41.6 carries (not including sacks) and rank 22nd in Rushing S&P+.
Key Stat No. 2: Ole Miss’ defense ranks fifth in Passing Downs S&P+, second in Passing S&P+, and first in Havoc Rate among defensive backs.
The thought of Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen attempting to find receivers against one of the nastiest pass defenses in the country has to be a terrifying one for Arkansas fans and coordinator Jim Chaney.
The Rebels leverage you into passing downs, then take your head off. Cornerback Mike Hilton has four tackles for loss and 10 passes defensed, corner Senquez Golson has two and 16, nickel back Tony Conner has six and two, and free safety Cody Prewitt has 3.5 and three. They play you tight near the line of scrimmage and cut off deep balls.
Arkansas can exploit size advantages with its heavy use of tight ends -- Hunter Henry and A.J. Derby are the Hogs' No. 2 and 3 targets, combining for 77 targets, 51 catches, and 707 yards -- but their best chance comes on the ground.
Ole Miss is good against the run, too. The Rebels rank 10th in Rushing S&P+ and third in Standard Downs S&P+. But while Arkansas' passing game has all sorts of issues (and while Arkansas passes more than you think), handing to Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins (combined: 30.5 carries per game, 6.0 yards per carry) is the security blanket. First downs should be like rocks smashing together, with Williams, Collins, and a big line plunging into the Ole Miss front.
Luckily, Ole Miss has had a couple of weeks to heal. Players like Prewitt and star tackle Robert Nkemdiche suffered injuries that kept them out late against LSU and limited them against Auburn. The Rebels should near full speed this week, and if Arkansas can't run the ball, the Hogs certainly won't be able to pass.
Arkansas is building something
Arkansas is building something
Vince Sanders and Cody Core vs. higher weight classes
Key Stat No. 3: Arkansas’ defense ranks eighth in Rushing S&P+ and second in Adj. Line Yards; Ole Miss’ offense ranks 45th and 43rd, respectively, in those categories.
Key Stat No. 4: Ole Miss receiver Laquon Treadwell averaged 8.3 targets per game and 8.4 yards per target.
Through seven games, Ole Miss' passing game was underrated, because of Bo Wallace's "he could self-destruct at any time" reputation (usually unfair), and effective, because of a foursome of lovely targets. Vince Sanders and Cody Core have averaged 10.6 yards per target over about nine targets per game; that's excellent, and sophomore tight end Evan Engram (394 yards, 9.9 yards per target) means mismatch opportunities.
The Rebels’ passing game clicked because these explosive options teamed with a steady No. 1. Laquon Treadwell wasn’t as explosive (13.2 yards per catch, 8.4 yards per target), but he was physical and occupied No. 1 cornerbacks. Sanders and Core have upside, but they now go against top defenders.
Passing will be huge for Ole Miss, because Arkansas has one of the country's best run defenses. The Hogs rank eighth in Rushing S&P+ and second in Adj. Line Yards and handle strong run games better than most. LSU's Terrence Magee, Darrel Williams, and Leonard Fournette combined to gain 49 yards in 18 carries (2.7 per carry) last week. On November 1, Mississippi State's Dak Prescott and Josh Robinson gained 125 in 32 carries (3.9). Alabama's T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry combined for 108 in 27 (4.0).
The Hogs have one of the most active lines in college football. Tackle Darius Philon and end Trey Flowers have combined for 20.5 tackles for loss, and only 5.5 were sacks.
Among good offenses, Ole Miss has one of the worst run games. They lean heavily on the pass, rushing 58 percent of the time on standard downs (68th in the country) and 21 percent on passing downs (118th), and with reason: they rank seventh in Passing S&P+ but 45th in Rushing S&P+. They run to keep defenses honest, but it’s not going to get anywhere. The Rebels have to pass, and that puts the spotlight on Sanders and Core.
Arkansas vs. the length of the field
Key Stat No. 5: Ole Miss ranks 25th in Special Teams Efficiency, and Arkansas ranks 103rd.
Key Stat No. 6: Ole Miss’ field position margin (average starting field position minus opponents’ average) is plus-4.4 yards per possession, 26th in the country. Arkansas’ is plus-1.1 yards, 54th.
You can see how Arkansas wants to win. The Hogs want to pound on the ground, prevent you from doing the same, slow the game, tilt the field, and wait for you to fall over. This would be easier if they were more effective in special teams.
Hog punter Sam Irwin-Hill is a fair catch machine -- only 13 of his punts have been returned, and for just 4.4 yards per return. He is a weapon, as is sophomore kick returner Korliss Marshall. But the Hogs rank 108th in Field Goal Efficiency, 120th in Kickoff Efficiency, and dead last in Punt Return efficiency.
Ole Miss’ kicking and punting are phenomenal. The only thing worse than trying to move the ball on Ole Miss is trying to move the ball a long way.
Both teams vs. the end zone
Key Stat No. 7: Ole Miss averages 4.5 points per scoring opportunity* (55th) and allows 3.2 points (third), a margin of plus-1.4 points per opportunity (seventh). Arkansas averages 4.7 points (38th) and allows 4.1 points (43rd), a margin of plus-0.6 (34th).
* Scoring Opportunities are defined as drives with a first down inside the opponent’s 40. And yes, touchdowns count as first downs.
It feels redundant putting “finishing drives” here, because I do in almost every preview, but that’s how important it. Both teams will probably create four to seven scoring opportunities. If one team finishes those chances, a close game becomes a blowout.
Neither Arkansas nor Ole Miss has been stellar at place kicking. Arkansas is 4-for-4 on field goals under 40 yards and just 1-for-4 outside of 40; Ole Miss is 5-for-7 under 40 and 2-for-5 over 40. This isn’t an extreme weakness, but it’s not a strength, and it underlines the importance of scoring touchdowns.
That could be an issue for Arkansas, because nobody scores touchdowns on Ole Miss. The Rebels don’t allow many opportunities, and they don’t allow you to convert the ones you have.
Last week, Arkansas dominated LSU in efficiency and field position and created four scoring opportunities (not including one that ended the game in victory formation) to LSU’s three. The Hogs scored two touchdowns, kicked a field goal, and punted once; that opened the door for LSU to stay in the game. That the Tigers blew all of their opportunities with two missed field goals and a turnover created Arkansas’ 17-0 margin. Red zone execution could have made that an Arkansas blowout or an LSU win. It will be equally important on Saturday.
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