2014 FCS playoffs bracket breakdown: Snubs and first-round picks

The final week of the FCS regular season saw several teams on the bubble fall, while a couple of other teams snuck into the field by stealing autobids. Two chaotic conference races were forced into arcane tiebreakers, and both conferences got the short end of the playoff stick.

Eight teams are seeded in the 24-team field and will host against lower seeds or unseeded teams regardless of travel concerns. The first round is unseeded, as the committee takes travel into consideration, and those matchups are also geared toward limiting travel into the second round.

Via the NCAA

James Madison, Montana, Richmond, and Fordham should get through without much trouble. Northern Iowa and Eastern Kentucky are favorites.

That leaves two games that are really up in the air. South Dakota State at Montana State is tough to call, largely because we never know from one week to the next which version of the Jackrabbits is going to show up. But they’ve still got running back Zach Zenner. In his career, Zenner has accounted for 6,163 yards and 55 touchdowns on the ground. To put that in perspective, in FBS, that’d be fifth all-time, with Charles White and Ricky Williams in Zenner’s viewscreen. A run by the Jackrabbits could give Zenner the all-time FCS record; he’s 396 yards shy.

More importantly, quarterback Austin Sumner was injured in the season opening loss against Missouri. He returned at the start of the month, and while that return was in an expected loss to North Dakota State, the Jackrabbits haven’t lost since. With Sumner, South Dakota State’s a much better team and should be slight favorites against the Bobcats.

The other tough call is Southeastern Louisiana-Sam Houston State. The conference rivals did not play; the Southland’s an 11-team league playing an 8-game conference schedule. Both suffered head-scratching losses -- SLU to Southeast Missouri State and Sam Houston to D2 playoff team Colorado State-Pueblo. Neither won a game it shouldn’t have, and their scores against common opponents are eerily similar. Southeastern looks a hair stronger and had higher expectations coming in, but the game’s in Huntsville, and all of SLU’s losses have come on the road. So if forced to pick, I’d recommend Sam Houston State.

All of that sets up a second round like this:

Half the second-round would be intra-conference rematches. Oh, boy.

Also, let’s see how we got here and who got hosed.

Autobid: No. 4 Eastern Washington (10-2)
At-large: Montana State (8-4), Montana (8-4)
Burst bubbles: Northern Arizona (7-5, lost last weekend), Idaho State (8-4, won but snubbed)

Eastern Washington handled business with a 56-34 win over Portland State, securing the automatic bid. Montana destroyed Montana State 34-7 in the Brawl of the Wild; both earned bids. Northern Arizona suffered a 22-14 loss to 2-10 Southern Utah, costing a bid. Idaho State did its job with a 46-28 win over Weber State, but the Bengals’ resume came up short.

Autobid: No. 1 New Hampshire (10-1)
At-large: No. 6 Villanova (10-2), James Madison (9-3), Richmond (8-4)
Burst bubble: William & Mary (7-5, lost)
New Hampshire secured No. 1 with a 20-12 win over Maine, Villanova earned a bye by beating Delaware 35-28, and James Madison crushed Elon 59-27 to earn the right to host a first-round game. The Colonial added a fourth bid, as Richmond met William & Mary in essentially a play-in game. The Spiders prevailed, 34-20.

Ivy

Autobid: Harvard (12-0, declined)

The Ivy has an autobid, but they traditionally decline it. That’s okay, though. With a hand from Liberty, Harvard secured the distinction of being the only unbeaten FCS team in 2014 with a 31-24 victory in The Game against Yale.

Autobid: Morgan State (7-5)
At-large: none
Burst bubbles: North Carolina A&T (9-3, lost), Bethune-Cookman (9-3, won but snubbed)

A&T failed to capitalize, falling 21-14 to North Carolina Central. South Carolina State dispatched Norfolk State 30-20 and Bethune-Cookman beat Florida A&M 18-17, while Morgan State crushed Delaware State 69-7. The end result? A five-way tie for first place, and the autobid ended up going to 7-5 Morgan State based on record in games among the tied teams.

Something stinks here. There is a 7-5 team in the field as an at-large (Indiana State) while two 9-3 teams (BCU and NCA&T) sit home. One would be justified in questioning the continued bias against HBCUs. The MEAC holds up well in competition against outside foes.

Autobid: No. 2 North Dakota State (11-1)
At-large: No. 5 Illinois State (11-1), Northern Iowa (8-4), South Dakota State (8-4), Indiana State (7-5)
Burst bubbles: Youngstown State (7-5, lost), Southern Illinois (6-6, lost)

Indiana State should have found itself on the outside looking in after losing its finale to 5-6 Western Illinois 34-20, but the Sycamores still got in.

Autobid: Sacred Heart (9-2)
At-large: none
Burst bubble: Bryant (8-3, lost)

Bryant stumbled, falling 23-30 to Wagner and, in the eyes of most prognosticators, costing itself an at-large. Sacred Heart, which had already secured the autobid, was idle.

Autobid: No. 3 Jacksonville State (10-1)
At-large: Eastern Kentucky (9-3)
Burst bubbles: none

Autobid: Fordham (10-2)
At-large: none
Burst bubble: Bucknell (8-3, lost)

In matters having nothing to do with the playoffs, up at Yankee Stadium, Lafayette trounced ancient rival Lehigh 27-7 in their 150th meeting.

Autobid: San Diego (9-2)
At-large: none
Burst bubble: none

San Diego lost to Cal Poly-SLO 34-3, but it didn’t matter; the Toreros were already in. The Pioneer had an absurd title situation again this year:

In 2013, two days before the season finale, San Diego withdrew from consideration for the PFL title because an internal investigation determined the Toreros might have used ineligible players. That’s a good trick for a league that doesn’t allow scholarships to begin with. It led to Butler receiving the league’s autobid.

This year, two days before a win that would have clinched the autobid, Jacksonville withdrew from contention for the same reason. San Diego’s win over Valparaiso earned the Toreros the playoff spot they missed out on last season. Go figure.

Autobid: No. 8 Tennessee-Chattanooga (9-3)
At-large: none
Burst bubble: Samford (7-4, lost), Western Carolina (7-4, lost)
Those two burst bubbles were prayers, as Samford lost to Auburn 31-7 and Western Carolina fell to Alabama 48-14. Chattanooga, 45-19 winners at Furman, earned the eighth seed.

Autobid: Sam Houston State (8-4)
At-large: Southeastern Louisiana (9-3), Stephen F. Austin (8-4)
Burst bubble: McNeese State (6-5, lost)
Southeastern pasted Nicholls State 62-3 on Thursday, then waited. Sam Houston knocked off Central Arkansas 38-31, forcing both the Bearkats and Lions to wait some more. When Stephen F. Austin polished off Northwestern State 27-24, Sam Houston State won the autobid. Southeastern Louisiana was getting in anyway, but the committee -- perhaps with a sense of justice and hilarity -- decided they’d settle the tie themselves: SLU and SHSU meet in the first round.
The Lumberjacks played their way in, which is not egregious, given their record. They travel for the first round against another team that did more stumbling than dominating, Northern Iowa. McNeese State had a shot at an at large, but blew it by losing 27-24 at home to Lamar.

Autobid: undetermined (declined)
At-large: none
Burst bubbles: none

The SWAC considers the Bayou Classic and its championship game more important than the FCS playoffs, and therefore doesn’t bother to participate. (Winning one game in the I-AA playoffs in more than 20 tries has nothing to do with it, I’m sure.) The only SWAC teams with resumes worth considering are still playing, and thus couldn’t participate anyway. Grambling State meets Southern on Saturday in the Bayou Classic; the winner plays Alcorn State the following week in the SWAC Championship at NRG Stadium in Houston.