LSU as spoiler: is there any scarier set of words?
LSU as Alabama’s Playoff spoiler? Now that’s terrifying.
Alabama’s path to another national title leads through Baton Rouge on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, CBS). Can the Tide move the ball efficiently against the Tigers? Can LSU (or anybody) run the ball on Bama?
No. 5 Alabama controls its own destiny in the national title race. With home games against Mississippi State (No. 1 in the Playoff rankings) and Auburn (No. 3), it is impossible to craft a scenario in which Alabama wins out and doesn’t make college football’s first-ever final four.
But while those loom, the Tide must first head to Baton Rouge.
Yes, there are doomsday scenarios in which No. 16 LSU itself re-enters the national title race. Big wins down the stretch, combined with a giant SEC West tie at 6-2 (which is the best record LSU can manage), could position the Tigers well if other one-loss teams -- the Kansas State-TCU winner, Michigan State, et cetera -- lose.
But it would take quite a bit for that to happen, so until otherwise noted, LSU’s just a young team peaking late and hoping to cause collateral damage down the stretch. “If we can’t win the title, neither can you.” The Tigers already ended Ole Miss’ perfect season two weeks ago; now it’s on to another big fish.
Since his return to the SEC in 2007, when he became Alabama’s head coach, Nick Saban has lost 16 games -- six in 2007 and 10 in the six and a half seasons since. He has lost to only one head coach more than once in that time: Les Miles. He has beaten Miles’ Tigers three straight times since their 9-6 win over Bama in 2011, but Miles’ specific brand of crazy has been tough for the Tide to handle.
Can LSU knock Bama out of the race? Let’s look at some of the questions that will help us find an answer.
Can LSU run the ball?
Our blogs on these schools
Leonard Fournette’s career isn’t going to include four Heismans, but the freshman is proving an increasingly reliable piece for a sledgehammer of an LSU run game. After some September iffiness, the Tigers are bludgeoning opponents.
LSU's four-headed running-back stable of Fournette, seniors Terrence Magee and Kenny Hilliard, and freshman Darrel Williams combined for 39 carries, 209 yards and three touchdowns against Florida, 41 for 257 and three scores against Kentucky, and 48 for 251 against a tremendous, banged-up Ole Miss defense two weeks ago.
After a bye week to let the bruises heal, LSU will try to pound away at Alabama. It’s what they do; the Tigers are rushing 75 percent of the time on standard downs, 10th most in the country. They are as dedicated to the run as just about any team in the country that doesn’t run the flexbone.
(Hmm, a flexbone with Fournette and Magee as slotbacks and Hilliard as fullback? Get offensive coordinator Cam Cameron on the phone. I’ve got something to run by him.)
One problem: Alabama's run defense is just about as good as it's ever been. The Tide rank first in Rushing S&P+. In eight games, opposing running backs have averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, 3.4 if you take away a single, 44-yard run by Tennessee' Marlin Lane. Arkansas' bruising duo of Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins combined to gain just 96 yards in 26 carries, leaving the Hogs to try and beat Bama through the air.
Sophomore Anthony Jennings and freshman Brandon Harris have alternated at quarterback. (Jennings is currently listed as the first-stringer.) Both have brought decent run threats to the table -- 70 non-sack carries for 385 yards -- but the passing game has been all-or-nothing. The two have completed just 51 percent of their passes (with a far-too-high eight percent sack rate), but their completions are averaging 16.9 yards. Travin Dural and Malachi Dupre are catching just 4.2 balls per game, but at 24.6 yards per catch.
Alabama’s secondary is far from terrible, but if LSU can run the ball just well enough to set up a couple of deep balls, the Tigers could score enough to win. But without the run, the pass won’t work either, and nobody’s run really works against Alabama.
Can Alabama pass the ball?
Alabama's offensive approach has been what you would expect when you picture offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin working his sets with a new starting quarterback. The Tide attempt balance on standard downs, rushing 61 percent of the time (almost exactly the national average). And on passing downs, they keep things conservative, rushing 43 percent of the time (17th in the country) and throwing occasionally to Amari Cooper (and only Cooper -- he's been targeted 29 times on passing downs, as many as the next four Tide players combined).
With Alabama's talent, this has worked just fine. Quarterback Blake Sims is completing 66 percent of his passes with 15 touchdowns to three interceptions, Cooper is on pace for 120 catches and 1,900 yards, and the tandem of T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry is on pace for 550 carries and 1,900 yards.
One problem (okay, more than one): the pace has been dropping, Yeldon has been hurt, and the offensive line has been pretty banged up.
Oh, and LSU has one of the best pass defenses in the country. Alabama’s offense ranks second in Passing S&P+, but LSU’s defense ranks fifth in the same category, and Sims’ completion rate has been only 57 percent over the last three games. Granted, that’s with a 7-to-0 TD-to-INT ratio and quite a few big plays, but efficiency has dropped, and everybody’s inefficient against LSU.
After averaging 7.5 yards per pass attempt (including sacks) with three scores and no picks against Alabama, Ole Miss quarterback Bo Wallace averaged 4.8 with a score and a late interception against LSU. The Tigers are pretty young out wide, with two sophomores starting at cornerback (Rashard Robinson, Tre'Davious White), but they're two really good sophomores.
LSU’s pass rush is nonexistent, which might give Sims time to find somebody (okay, find Cooper) deep. But the Tide want to throw short, quick passes as frequently as possible.
Via Roll Bama Roll
Because Cooper is so talented, and because his blocking is good, the behind-the-line passes might continue to work. But LSU is fast, aggressive, and built to stop things like that.
If LSU is able to neutralize Cooper to some degree, that will put pressure on either other potential receiving targets (DeAndrew White, Christion Jones, tight end O.J. Howard, the running backs) or on a running game that has been inconsistent since the Ole Miss game -- Henry and Yeldon combined to average 4.3 yards per carry against Ole Miss, 3.0 against Arkansas, 8.0 against Texas A&M, and 4.3 against Tennessee. Yeldon is expected to play despite a foot injury, but starting left tackle Cam Robinson is still working through an ankle sprain. Center Ryan Kelly returned from his own injury in time for the Tennessee game, but the line itself has been in quite a bit more flux than normal this season.
LSU is good, not great, against the run (19th in Rushing S&P+), but if Alabama has to lean on the run because the pass isn’t working, the Tide’s score will probably remain low.
See More:
