You’ve noticed how fun the Big 12 is again this year, right? The conference of the Midlands (and West Virginia) is a place for happy football and happy stories, at least if you don’t live in Stillwater or Lubbock.
Kansas State vs. TCU might be the best part of a loaded college football Saturday
Expect fun tactics and tight matchups when No. 6 TCU and No. 9 Kansas State square off to decide who will become the Big 12’s favorite down the stretch. (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, Fox.)
Jim Cowsert-US PRESSWIRE
Oklahoma is fast and just about as good as advertised. Baylor is still really fast and aggressive. West Virginia is not only exciting on offense again; the Mountaineers are also mean as hell on defense. Texas is a completely different team every week, which is entertaining in its own way. Mark Mangino is doing some tactically interesting things as Iowa State’s offensive coordinator, albeit without the talented personnel to pull it off. Kansas ... well ... until the Bob Stitt-for-Kansas dream dies, it’s still alive, and that’s pretty fun, too.
And the two teams with the best chances of the conference title are also great stories. Kansas State is once again Kansas State. Lots of new pieces on defense? Who cares? The Wildcats have put a top-15 D on the field regardless, shutting down Auburn, which doesn’t happen. And the offense is starting to hum, too.
Meanwhile, in a single offseason, TCU renovated its offense to a rather unimaginable level. Now the Horned Frogs have the same top-10 defense they always have, only with an efficient offense that doesn’t hold them back like it did in 2012-13.
There’s a huge helmet game going on in Baton Rouge on Saturday (Alabama-LSU), and we’ve been waiting for Michigan State-Ohio State since the moment the last Michigan State-Ohio State game ended. Arizona State-Notre Dame is a unique title elimination game out West. Baylor-Oklahoma will start Saturday off right.
But if we’re looking for the game that might have the best combination of importance and watchability, it kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday night. Kansas State at TCU will tell us who the Big 12’s favorite is. It will also offer some fascinating tactics-and-personnel matchups.
TCU vs. good health vs. efficiency
TCU’s offensive turnaround has been stunning. After ranking in the Off. F/+ top 20 for three straight years from 2009-11, the Horned Frogs fell to 70th in 2012 and 94th in 2013.
But new offensive co-coordinators Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie have been able to not only stem the bleeding, but completely turn things around. Trevone Boykin, an athletic, inefficient quarterback for the last two years, has been the head of an impressive offense in 2014.
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He's had help. His own legs have brought efficiency to the run game, and he's had some solid possession receivers in guys like Deante' Gray (67 percent catch rate, 16.8 yards per catch), Ty Slanina, and David Porter (combined: 12.5 targets per game, 69 percent catch rate, 13.7 yards per catch). But he's also been surrounded by three home run threats: running back B.J. Catalon and his two favorite receivers, Josh Doctson and Kolby Listenbee.
Catalon left the West Virginia game with an upper torso injury, and hasn’t practiced all week. Doctson was banged up and ineffective against West Virginia. Injuries have begun to sneak up on the Frogs, and while efficiency options are still on the table, explosiveness might be minimal against KSU.
Of course, explosiveness is always minimal against KSU. The Wildcats are fourth in IsoPPP (which measures the magnitude of successful plays allowed) and 76th in success rate allowed; they are the ultimate bend-don’t-break defense, giving you plenty of six-yard gains but stuffing you in short-yardage and getting aggressive when you cross midfield. This is a defense built to force spread offenses to work methodically. Most can’t.
Even if Catalon can't go, Boykin and backup Aaron Green should be able to move the ball four to six yards at a time on the ground*. But TCU wants to use the entire field, which means passing a lot.
We’ll see if Boykin is able to take what is given to him; in conference play, he’s become much more of an all-or-nothing passer -- he’s averaging 16 yards per completion but completing just 52 percent. He doesn’t throw many risky passes (he’s thrown just four interceptions in 316 tries), but he wants to look downfield, and he probably won’t find many open men.
* TCU might want to think about throwing the ball in short-yardage situations, however: KSU’s defense ranks fifth in Power Success Rate; the Frogs’ offense ranks 111th.
Jake Waters vs. the 4-2-5
Kansas State’s offense has been rather inconsistent. The Wildcats looked great against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (combined: 6.6 yards per play) and thumped bad UTEP and Texas Tech defenses appropriately. But the well was pretty dry against Texas (23 points, 5.0 per play) and Auburn (14 points, 4.1).
Since receiver Tyler Lockett returned to full health, the passing game has been stellar, with quarterback Jake Waters producing a passer rating of at least 158.0 in four of his last five games. But the performance against Texas was a bit alarming, considering the caliber of defense KSU will be facing on Saturday.
It’s easy to say that TCU’s defense is awesome and leave it at that; it’s a foregone conclusion at this point that, no matter who Gary Patterson loses from year to year, his defense is going to be very good. But how is it good this year? What exactly are the Frogs doing so well?
- Efficiency. TCU's defense is the anti-KSU. Break-don't-bend. The Frogs aren't going to allow many successful plays, though the ones they allow could be pretty big. They create chaos near the line of scrimmage, and they disrupt your gameplan. Breakdowns are both significant and nearly non-existent.
- No running room. This goes along with the first one, but TCU is better against the run than the pass; the Frogs are 18th in Rushing S&P+ and 37th in Passing S&P+. KSU can't run the ball very well -- backs Charles Jones and DeMarcus Robinson are averaging just 4.4 yards per carry, and while Waters is pretty effective on the ground, he should only be taking so many hits. KSU still attempts balance, running about 59 percent of the time on standard downs, almost right at the national average, but the Wildcats are more effective through the air. In fact, they might want to all but abandon the run on Saturday; it's probably not going to get them anywhere.
- Just enough of a pass rush. TCU ranks 27th in Adj. Sack Rate and 16th in Passing Downs S&P+. This isn't the Frogs' best pass defense, but it's good enough. Linebacker/wrecking ball Paul Dawson, end Mike Tuaua, and tackle Davion Pierson have combined for 11.5 sacks, and harried quarterbacks have allowed TCU to break in a rather young set of cornerbacks. Senior Kevin White is a stellar corner (he helped to limit WVU's Kevin White to three catches and 28 yards), but redshirt freshman Ranthony Texada and true freshmen Torrance Mosley and Nick Orr are playing key roles. One assumes it will be White vs. Lockett on Saturday, but there will be a freshman on KSU's Curry Sexton, who has caught at least eight passes in four games this year and showed some explosiveness against Oklahoma State last week (nine catches, 159 yards).
Kansas State’s offense is brilliant when it comes to highlighting and exploiting numbers and matchup advantages. But those advantages still have to exist, and they’re hard to find against TCU.
Both teams vs. the length of the field
Here are your top 15 teams in terms of field position margin (your average starting field position minus your opponent’s):
- Ohio State (plus-14.2 yards)
- Memphis (plus-11.0)
- TCU (plus-9.7)
- Nebraska (plus-8.9)
- Georgia (plus-8.8)
- Baylor (plus-8.3)
- Georgia Southern (plus-8.2)
- Stanford (plus-7.6)
- Duke (plus-7.2)
- Miami (plus-7.1)
- Utah (plus-6.8)
- Kansas State (plus-6.5)
- Michigan State (plus-6.1)
- Notre Dame (plus-6.0)
- Marshall (plus-5.8)
In a game that features two excellent defenses and potentially inefficient offenses, field position will tell even more of the story than usual. Whoever gets more short fields probably wins.
Lockett vs. the spotlight vs. Kevin White
This is the biggest game Lockett has played in since Auburn came to Manhattan. Lockett has been one of college football’s best receivers over the last two to three years, but he chose a bad time for one of his worst performances. He caught just six of 12 passes for 45 yards and dropped a sure touchdown in the first half.
Lockett has rebounded since a frustrating September that included both the poor Auburn game and a lingering injury, and in five conference games he has caught 38 of 54 balls for 544 yards and four touchdowns. He will probably play quite well against TCU, but TCU’s White (with safety help) held WVU’s White to season lows last week. Will Lockett be able to produce? And if he doesn’t, can Sexton or (gulp) the running game give KSU enough threats?
***
By the time TCU and KSU kick off, we’ll know what we need to know about the Big 12 race. If Baylor upsets Oklahoma, we’ll have a thrilling two-team race (between BU and this game’s winner) down the stretch. But if the favored Sooners prevail, the TCU-KSU victor will be a heavy conference favorite.
TCU does have a conference loss, and KSU does still have to play at West Virginia and Baylor, so Saturday night won’t outright decide the title. But the winner will have both odds and a lofty Playoff ranking on its side.
I’ve actually found myself leaning toward KSU in this one, but that might have to do with recency effect (KSU looked much better last week, and therefore KSU is better). TCU has been the better team for the season as a whole, and if Doctson is healthy, he and Listenbee might give the Frogs just enough big-play capability to puncture the umbrella that is the KSU defense. This is a fascinating, important game, and it should be wonderfully entertaining to boot.
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