The big 2014 AAC football preview countdown, from Memphis to the contenders

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Tommy Tuberville has been an FBS head coach for 18 seasons -- four at Ole Miss, 10 at Auburn, three at Texas Tech, and one at Cincinnati. Through these nearly two decades, the 59-year-old Southern Arkansas grad has thoroughly, systematically taken apart any possible way to get a read on him. His teams start slow and finish fast one year, then start fast and finish slow the next. They enter a season with no expectations and surge up the rankings, then they start a season with elite expectations and crumble.

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There have been setbacks, of course. In 2006, after an 8-5 breakthrough, UCF went 4-8. The Knights bounced to 10-4, then dropped to 4-8. They went 19-8 in 2009-10, then lost six one-possession games and fell to 5-7. But the slope was positive. Each time UCF improved under George O’Leary, the bar got raised. And in the last two years, the setbacks have been minimal, and the bar has only gone higher.

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On average, a team will recover about 50 percent of all fumbles in a given season. Houston recovered 63 percent of all fumbles (27 of 43) in 2013.

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It’s happened every few years. Since 2003, when Steve Kragthorpe took over the Tulsa football program, the Golden Hurricane have had random sketchy seasons. An 8-5 campaign in 2003 was followed by 4-8 in 2004. Four increasingly impressive seasons (culminating with 11-3 in 2008) under Kragthorpe and Todd Graham followed by a 5-7 dud in 2009. A 29-11 record from 2010-12 followed by a 3-9 stinker in 2013.

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I tried as hard as I could to talk myself into UConn’s hire of Paul Pasqualoni three years ago. I really did. He’s got a good defensive mind, and he knows the northeast. But hires that feel underwhelming often feel that way because they are indeed underwhelming, and sometimes going against the grain simply means going against what is most likely to work.

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The offense never came around. The defense had a strange “one bad game for every two good ones” thing going on for much of the year. USF lost by 18 at home to FAU, 25 at Rutgers, 31 at home to Louisville, and, of course, 32 at home to McNeese State. USF fans argued about the definition of “rock bottom.” Only brief bouts of competence in two games in October prevented a winless year.

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You’ve got a decent offense, but your defense is lagging behind. You’ve been to two bowls in three years, but the quality of your team overall needs a boost. Hire a new defensive coordinator!

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Temple went 4-42 from 2003-06. We all have a pretty good understanding of how tough this job was in the not-too-distant past, but in case you needed a reminder, there it is. And as a fan of a school that was once bad, then became good, I know that there is a nagging feeling in your gut even when things are going well.

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On Wednesday, we discussed a team undergoing a relatively impressive rebuild; two years in, Memphis’ Justin Fuente has raised Memphis’ F/+ ranking by almost 40 spots, and while the wins haven’t come yet (and might not in 2014 because of a tough schedule), the Tigers are undeniably moving in the right direction.

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At first, growth can be hard to notice, at least from an outsider’s perspective. To said outsiders, Memphis’ second season under Justin Fuente was a lot like the first. The Tigers beat some bad teams and conquered the mighty UT-Martin team that felled them in 2012, but they finished 3-9, one game behind where they were the year before.