The big 2014 Pac-12 guide countdown, from Colorado to Oregon

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When you never slip, any regression feels like a pretty large stumble. And when you never have an off week, even a single knockdown feels like a knockout.

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Until otherwise noted, Stanford is a part of college football’s ruling class, and none of the Pac-12’s up-and-comers is there yet.

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It is in our nature to see the outliers first. It is also in our nature to try to discount anything that doesn’t match our own perceptions. In this way, numbers are anti-social. They disagree with you, and they never back down when they do so. You can say, “Yeah, but...” as many times as you want; the same numbers are going to just keep staring back at you.

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Nobody ever accused Dennis Erickson of failing to attract athletes. From Washington State to Miami to Oregon State to Arizona State, Erickson fielded teams that more than passed the eyeball test. They had swagger and speed in abundance.

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Arizona picked the wrong year to prove itself. The Wildcats improved rather dramatically in 2012, Rich Rodriguez’s first year in charge. But with the departure of their starting quarterback, an injury to their No. 1 (by far) receiver, and some rebuilding to do on the offensive line, it was logical to expect a step backwards on offense. And with a lot of tough road games on the schedule, a bit of a step backwards could have been expected.

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In 2006, Oregon State went 10-4 and ranked 35th in the F/+ rankings. 2007: 9-4 and 27th. 2008: 9-4 and 30th. There was some variation after that -- 8-5 in 2009 with a No. 20 ranking (0-4 vs. teams with 9+ wins, 8-1 vs. everybody else), 5-7 in 2010 with a No. 46 ranking (0-4 and 5-3, respectively). The schedule was getting more difficult, but 2010 aside (when the schedule featured TCU, Boise State, Oregon, and Stanford teams that combined to go 49-3), the results were pretty consistent.

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In terms of F/+ ratings, Utah had regressed every year since 2008. The Utes ranked 11th in the country that year, at plus-24.3 percent (above average). That became plus-12.6 in 2009, then plus-11.6 in 2010. It began to fall more rapidly, to plus-1.2 percent in 2011, then minus-3.8 in 2012.

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Stanford replaced Walt Harris with Jim Harbaugh, then David Shaw. UCLA replaced Rick Neuheisel with Jim Mora. Washington State replaced Paul Wulff with Mike Leach. Arizona State replaced Dennis Erickson with Todd Graham. Arizona replaced Mike Stoops with Rich Rodriguez. Colorado replaced Jon Embree with Mike MacIntyre. Washington replaced Ty Willingham with Steve Sarkisian. USC replaced Lane Kiffin with Steve Sarkisian, as well.

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College football is a glacier. Things change very slowly. It took about 40 years of debate to create a four-team playoff. The top 20 teams one year are more or less the top 20 the next.

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Well, that wasn’t very well-timed.

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There are no shortcuts when you fall as far as Colorado fell.