A 7-8 mark in Week 3 brings me to 23-20, +$100 as we enter Week 4. There are few marquee games this week, but winning wagers on low-profile games spends just as well as prime-time dollars. All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. Visit SB Nation odds partner Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMBLING: Week 4’s 14 best bets, with lots of defense
Welcome back to our weekly college football gambling column. It’s called COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMBLING.
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1. Clemson at Florida State Under 61 points: Did you know that Jameis Winston got suspended for the first half? FSU's backup is very capable, but he's not Jameis. And the bigger reason for this wager is that both defenses in this game are underrated.
2. Oklahoma -7 at West Virginia: A scary square pick, to be sure, but Oklahoma could be the best team in the country.
3. Florida at Alabama Under 52.5: Two very good defenses, two offenses that have not been able to go downfield much at all, and potentially a lot of third-and-long situations? Hope for ugly. Take Alabama, too, if you can get under 14. Watch the offensive tackles in this game get embarrassed.
4. Mississippi State at LSU Under 50.5: The Bulldogs defense is better than it has played this year, and LSU’s is one of the best in the country. There is no reason to trust either offense as of yet.
5. Miami at Nebraska -7: The Cornhuskers killed Florida Atlantic, almost lost to McNeese State, and then dominated Fresno State. Do you trust Miami’s freshman QB Brad Kaaya on the road? The Hurricanes defense seems to be for real, however.
6. Virginia at BYU -14: The value on betting Virginia seems to be gone, and BYU wants revenge from last year’s loss in Charlottesville. The Cougars also have extra rest and play great defense.
7. Rutgers at Navy -5.5: This is a potential hangover spot for Rutgers. Did they really focus this week in practice on stopping Navy’s attack? Navy QB Keenan Reynolds is probable, so this is a go.
8. Maryland +1 at Syracuse: Terrell Hunt is not nearly as good at throwing the ball around as Clint Trickett, so don't expect the 'Cuse to be able to exploit the Terps like West Virginia did last week.
9. Marshall -9 at Akron: Marshall’s breakout game, as long as the Thundering Herd hold on to the football.
10. San Diego State +10 at Oregon State: It wouldn’t be surprising if the Aztecs won outright.
11. Indiana +14 at Missouri: Missouri has played quite well so far in 2014, but that sometimes leads to line inflation. Look for Indiana to run the football a lot to neutralize the pass rush from the Tigers. Mizzou also has a lookahead spot here with a divisional game at South Carolina on deck.
12. Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech -7.5: The Hokies stop the run pretty well, and it’s doubtful that Georgia Tech can throw all over them.
13. Cal at Arizona -9: Arizona is a lot better than any team Cal has played so far, and the value on Cal thanks to its early season record may be gone.
14. Louisiana-Lafayette +17 at Boise State: ULL has been the victim of some horrible fumble luck early this season.
I want to take Auburn to cover Thursday night at Kansas State, but ...
There have been 4 times more bets placed on Auburn, but 2 times more money has been bet on Kansas St @LVSuperBook. ht @golfodds
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) September 18, 2014 Playoff odds -- not the best weekend in Los Angeles
Last week, I discussed how Vegas regarded Alabama as much more likely to make the College Football Playoff than Georgia. Then Georgia lost to the Gamecocks, and people looked to replace Georgia in their Playoff picks with another team, while Vegas continues to maintain that Florida State, Alabama, Oregon, and Oklahoma are way more likely than any other teams to be the final four.
Perhaps more intriguing, however, is the next group of four bunched so tightly together: Texas A&M, Baylor, LSU and Auburn. Four of the top eight teams according to the Vegas odds to make the playoff are from the SEC.
Interestingly, there are still no odds for South Carolina, and USC is completely off the board. Also, despite UCLA’s undefeated record, Las Vegas is clearly no longer buying its act. The Bruins have the worst odds of any listed undefeated team.
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