Iowa is a deserving top-5 team right now, and 3 other College Football Playoff rankings takeaways
The full top 25 is here! Let’s talk about Iowa, the Big 12, what to do with the non-powers and that weird “body clocks” thing Jeff Long talked about on the rankings show.
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
by Jason Kirk
ESPN is very good at this.
Each week, the College Football Playoff committee reveals its top 25. It does this on a television show. The television show unveils that top 25 team-by-team, building to a point of drama in the rankings. The three previous sentences could all be met with a “Why?” and the answer to each “Why?” would be that it’s dramatic TV.
This week, the drama point came at Nos. 4 through 6. We knew Clemson would be No. 1, and we knew Alabama and Ohio State would follow in some order. ESPN revealed Notre Dame was No. 4, and then heavy lessons about the committee and modern football ideologies and two put-upon geographic regions hung in the balance.
The Iowa Hawkeyes’ logo appeared at No. 5, with Baylor’s showing up at No. 6. Drama gave way to emotion. American fullbacks raised on starch triumphed over the rowdy Texas bullies who’ve played nobody. Or the gritty Texas underdogs were disrespected yet again by the committee in favor of a bigger school. Your choice.
The case for Iowa at No. 5 is simple. The Hawkeyes are undefeated, as are the Bears, but are 9-0 against a much better schedule. Beating Illinois, Northwestern, Pitt and Wisconsin gives Iowa four wins over teams with winning records. Baylor has zero of those. Zero of those in mid-November. The Bears have put a billion points on the scoreboard, and their scheduling strategy is actually brilliant, but the thing of it is that it relies on other teams messing up. Iowa hasn't messed up.
Now the discussion starts flipping, as Baylor welcomes No. 12 Oklahoma, followed by trips to No. 8 Oklahoma State and No. 15 TCU, while Iowa’s schedule is no big deal at all until the likely Big Ten Championship. We’ll see how things stack up in December, but on Nov. 11, Iowa’s a good No. 5.
| Playoff committee ranking | S&P+ ranking | Best win, per S&P+ | Worst loss, per S&P+ | If the season ended today | |
| 1 | Clemson (9-0) | 1 | Notre Dame | Orange Bowl vs. Notre Dame | |
| 2 | Alabama (8-1) | 2 | LSU | Ole Miss | Cotton Bowl vs. Ohio State |
| 3 | Ohio State (8-0) | 4 | Penn State | Cotton Bowl vs. Alabama | |
| 4 | Notre Dame (8-1) | 6 | USC | at Clemson | Orange Bowl vs. Clemson |
| 5 | Iowa (9-0) | 20 | at Wisconsin | Rose Bowl vs. Stanford | |
| 6 | Baylor (8-0) | 7 | West Virginia | Sugar Bowl vs. SEC | |
| 7 | Stanford (8-1) | 14 | at USC | at Northwestern | Rose Bowl vs. Iowa |
| 8 | Oklahoma State (9-0) | 16 | TCU | Fiesta or Peach | |
| 9 | LSU (7-1) | 8 | Florida | at Alabama | New Year's bowl, perhaps Sugar |
| 10 | Utah (8-1) | 24 | Michigan | at USC | Fiesta or Peach |
| 11 | Florida (8-1) | 9 | Ole Miss | at LSU | New Year's bowl, perhaps Sugar |
| 12 | Oklahoma (8-1) | 5 | West Virginia | Texas | |
| 13 | Michigan State (8-1) | 29 | at Michigan | at Nebraska | |
| 14 | Michigan (7-2) | 3 | BYU | Michigan State | |
| 15 | TCU (8-1) | 13 | West Virginia | at Oklahoma State | |
| 16 | Florida State (7-2) | 11 | Louisville | at Georgia Tech | |
| 17 | Mississippi State (7-2) | 22 | Louisiana Tech | at Texas A&M | |
| 18 | Northwestern (7-2) | 40 | Stanford | Iowa | |
| 19 | UCLA (7-2) | 19 | BYU | Arizona State | |
| 20 | Navy (7-1) | 17 | at Memphis | at Notre Dame | Fiesta or Peach |
| 21 | Memphis (8-1) | 39 | Ole Miss | Navy | |
| 22 | Temple (8-1) | 37 | Penn State | Notre Dame | |
| 23 | North Carolina (8-1) | 32 | Duke | vs. South Carolina | |
| 24 | Houston (9-0) | 35 | at Louisville | ||
| 25 | Wisconsin (9-2) | 26 | at Illinois | Iowa |
Remain patient, Big 12
by Pete Volk
The Big 12 was left out of the Playoff last year despite having two very good teams. This year, the conference has four, and it still might not be enough.
For the second straight week, the conference failed to crack the top five despite having multiple undefeated teams. A marquee 49-29 home win by undefeated Oklahoma State over undefeated TCU didn’t help, either. The two nearly traded spots: the Cowboys went from No. 14 to No. 8, while the Frogs went from No. 8 to No. 15.
Since the Playoff is still giving teams credit for suffering injuries (committee chairman Jeff Long praised Notre Dame for what it's overcome this year), that's a pretty steep slide for the Horned Frogs. TCU's defense has been battered all year, and star receiver Josh Doctson left Saturday in the second quarter with an injury.
There are four Big 12 teams in the top 15. For three, the best win by S&P+ is West Virginia. The Mountaineers are 4-4 and appear to be a decent team, but it's not a resume-defining victory. Weak non-conference schedules and a back-loaded conference slate have made ranking the Big 12 difficult, as Long alluded.
“It’s really hard to judge those teams at this point of the season,” he said. “That’s why I think you see Baylor staying where they were even though they win a game. Their strength of their schedule is still in front of them, so they have opportunity. ”
The committee values wins over .500 teams, and hey, West Virginia counts! And there is that back-loaded slate, with each of the top three teams playing each other. If Baylor or Oklahoma State can emerge unscathed, it’ll have a worthy resume. But with five teams in front and only two (Ohio State and Iowa) set to possibly play each other, will that be enough?
The non-powers are basically out of Playoff contention, and that’s a shame
by Steven Godfrey
The good news for No. 24 Houston, the Group of 5’s last undefeated team, is that the Cougars have home games against ranked Memphis and Navy still left, and they could play another in the American Athletic Conference championship.
The bad news is that it doesn’t look like a clean sweep will matter much at all for Playoff consideration. The entire AAC has been relegated to the 20s, and the committee doesn’t think much of the Cougars shutting out Vanderbilt at home, despite the Commodores’ near-upset of Florida last week.
Houston (and the rest of the AAC) has a Fiesta or Peach to play for, and that’s huge for the program. Still, it’s disconcerting that the committee has seemingly ruled out any possible chance of a G5 contender in the Playoff four.
The committee’s latest amazing explanation provides a lifehack opportunity
by Rodger Sherman
Stanford’s No. 7 is pretty reasonable. The Cardinal are 8-1, and their only loss was a season opener to No. 18 Northwestern. They’ve crushed both ranked Pac-12 teams they’ve played.
The only unreasonable thing about their ranking is something Long said about their ranking:
Jeff Long, on whether "body clocks" are a factor in the rankings (re: Stanford’s loss at Northwestern: "Absolutely."
— Jake Trotter (@Jake_Trotter) November 11, 2015 The committee would've been justified to say Stanford is ranked No. 7 based only on its resume. Instead, it's saying Stanford is ranked No. 7 in part because its first game was at 12 p.m. Eastern, which felt like 9 a.m. to Stanford's players.
It’s reasonable to expect Stanford’s players should’ve been ready to play a game at 9 a.m. West Coast time. For starters, most teams practice before classes start. And the game was in Week 1, before classes started anyway, so the team had the whole offseason to prepare. Coaches are supposed to think about this stuff before they send players to play at those times. Change things up if you need to.
And Stanford just played a game at Colorado that kicked off at 1 p.m. ET -- 10 a.m. noon on the Cardinal’s horribly maladjusted body clocks -- and smoked the Buffaloes, 42-10. Doesn’t that prove body clocks weren’t an issue?
But let’s ignore those facts. The Playoff committee has told us that potential circadian body clock issues factor into their rankings. This is your in, coaches. Schedule all your games for freaky times. If Alabama had scheduled its game against Ole Miss at 4 a.m., surely the Tide would be No. 1 right now.
Last week, my colleagues debated the pros and cons of taking the job as Hawai’i’s head coach. Their answers are now rendered irrelevant. It’s clear that Hawai’i is our nation’s best job. Not only do you get to play teams with maladjusted body clocks, but every road loss will be mitigated by your own team’s sleep issues. The Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors may be 2-8 this year, but they’re basically 10-0, if you really think about it.
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