Has UNC football finally turned the corner?

Every year, usually around July, maybe early August, you start thinking it. You might have learned to dismiss it, maybe even quickly, but the thought runs across your brain and you let it roll around. Maybe this is the year North Carolina puts it together.

The idea has been carried by inertia for a while now, but as Bill Connelly wrote in his 2015 Tar Heels preview, there’s a reason we keep thinking North Carolina is poised to turn the corner:

UNC seems to always return last year’s two deep and is always welcoming a new top-30 class. Since 2010, the 247Sports Composite has only once graded UNC’s class outside of that range.

Meanwhile, since 2008, the Heels have won between six and eight games every year and have ranked between 33rd and 57th in F/+ all but once. They are stable despite in no way resembling a stable program. No matter who’s coaching, they’re competitive, athletic and never particularly good.

North Carolina hasn’t won double-digit games since 1997, Mack Brown’s last season in Chapel Hill. Not even when Butch Davis was loading UNC’s roster with NFL Draft picks did the long-proclaimed “sleeping giant” make any serious noise in the ACC.

With their only loss being a turnover-influenced fluke in week one against South Carolina, the Heels are already assured of improving on last year’s 6-7 record. If they beat Miami on Saturday, they’ll have their first nine-win mark since that ‘97 season. They’re on track to finish well ahead of last year in F/+ (No. 70, compared to No. 23 this year). Any way you slice it, this year is a significant step forward for head coach Larry Fedora.

Defensively, UNC’s 62nd in Defensive S&P+ under Gene Chizik a year after being No. 99. It’s not amazing, but it’s not dreadful. And as we’ve seen, a lot of highly ranked teams are only good on one side of the ball. North Carolina’s defense is not a liability, and against most teams, that’s good enough.

Those are all reasons to think this isn’t a blip. Now, here’s where I walk it back.

The Heels are 8-1, but they’ve amassed that against the 70th-toughest schedule in the country, according to Jeff Sagarin. There are several challenging games remaining, and that doesn’t even yet include a potential date with Clemson in the ACC Championship. They host Miami this week, and then go on the road to face Virginia Tech and then NC State. The Wolfpack are the only one of those teams rated higher than 50th in F/+, but there could be a loss hiding in that stretch. Fair or unfair, this is a team that needs to prove it.

As a long-term proposition, there are reasons to remain wary. The Heels are losing some big contributors next year, mainly Williams. Fedora has already interviewed for one other job during his time in Chapel Hill, and that was before this year’s success. And while UNC’s recruiting has improved over the last few years, currently ranking fourth in the ACC in the 247Sports Composite, it’s not quite Playoff-level good.

But UNC’s first-ever ACC Coastal championship would be the first step to raising the Heels’ profile in the eyes of recruits. And though Fedora’s looked around, there should be very few jobs on this year’s market that would rank ahead of the Heels. Next year’s roster gives him plenty to work with anyway, despite the loss of Williams, as it returns most of its starters on both sides of the ball.

Barring a collapse, North Carolina should have a chance to win its first conference title since Jimmy Carter was president. Whether this will be a high water mark or the start of something bigger remains to be seen.