Notre Dame’s got a Big 12 problem, and 3 other College Football Playoff ranking takeaways

by Bill Connelly

Of the top four seeds, Notre Dame easily has the toughest road ahead, and for a couple of reasons.

First, there’s the remaining schedule: the Irish must survive Boston College’s stout defense, then head west to face Stanford’s rugged offense. S&P+ says they only have a 41 percent chance of winning both games.

Beyond that, they could suffer the wrath of the conference title bump.

Notre Dame “remains strong in the four,” committee chair Jeff Long said on ESPN, but he added that the committee sees “Big 12 teams emerging” from the conference’s backloaded schedule.

An undefeated Oklahoma State with late wins over Baylor in Week 12 and Oklahoma in Week 13 would be a prime candidate to pass an 11-1 Notre Dame, both because of résumé and the unlikely odds of the committee leaving out an undefeated power conference champion.

Oklahoma could pass the Irish, too, though that case would be interesting. The Sooners would have the same conference wins as Oklahoma State, but a) they’d have beaten Baylor and OSU on the road, and b) they also boast a road win over Tennessee.

They also c) lost to Texas, which could make things blurry both because Texas is bad and because Notre Dame crushed the Longhorns to start the season.

I don’t know, do you think an 11-1 Notre Dame team sliding out of the top four would cause a bit of a ruckus?

by Steven Godfrey

Iowa started out in the committee ranking cycle as the lowest-ranked undefeated from a power conference. That created consternation from Hawkeye fans, and a jump to No. 5 in the second rankings last week didn’t help much. After all, Baylor lurked one spot below with the strength of its backloaded Big 12 schedule still ahead.

Now with more teams out and the Big 12 again on the outside, the committee’s endorsement of the Hawkeyes’ less-than-convincing domination of the Big Ten West and a non-conference schedule that boasts Pittsburgh means that the Hawkeyes are in the destiny-controller club.

When Long was asked whether Iowa’s better or just more deserving than Oklahoma, he said, “Better.”

Win out. Beat Ohio State (or Michigan State or Michigan). Show up to December 13-0, and you’re in.

That’s it. Disrespect and “brand name” conspiracy theories are bunk. You’re not 2014 Baylor: you’re the 2014 Baylor that likely gets to actually play No. 3 Ohio State before the field is set. Win that, and Go Iowa Awesome goes from tongue in cheek to Playoff.

by Pete Volk

When Stanford and Utah both lost to unranked opponents to reach two losses, it looked like the Pac-12’s Playoff hopes were finished.

But Stanford’s still relatively high at No. 11, and the schedule provides a clear Playoff path. David Shaw’s squad plays 6-4 Cal at home, and the committee looks favorably on wins against teams with .500 records or better. The Cardinal finish with a home date against No. 4 Notre Dame, giving Stanford the opportunity to knock out one direct Playoff competitor. And Stanford can do it, too. The Cardinal have looked as good as anybody at points this year, and Christian McCaffrey is a dang freak.

Then there’s the Pac-12 Championship, where Stanford will likely face No. 13 Utah or No. 24 USC, potentially giving the Cardinal another ranked win. An 11-2 Cardinal would boast seven wins against teams with winning records and three against teams currently ranked in the Playoff Top 25. And both teams Stanford has lost to are now ranked (No. 20 Northwestern, No. 23 Oregon).

Throw in either a North Carolina win over Clemson in the ACC Championship or enough Big 12 chaos that no team emerges unscathed, and that’s a Stanford with a case for the top four.

by Jason Kirk

Every week when these come out, one of the things we all rush to do is find the exact contention cutoff point.

Potential SEC champion Florida at No. 8? Potential Big Ten champion Michigan State at No. 9? Baylor’s only five spots from where it finished last year, with two big games to go. Maybe even two-loss Michigan or the Pac-12?

The answer to each is, “Sure!”

The committee showed I (and others) was hasty in declaring the Pac-12 dead, and Michigan’s road loss to No. 13 Utah and fluke loss to No. 9 Michigan State could be trumped by wins against current No. 3 Ohio State and No. 5 Iowa. And anyone who thinks the average one-loss power conference champion has no shot or needs major help just does not know what the hell they’re talking about.

I don’t think the two-loss teams after Utah are even longshot contenders, which brings us to the No. 17 Tar Heels, who are not the average one-loss potential power conference champion.

UNC’s only loss was a fluke away from home against South Carolina, and it’s pulverizing people on the scoreboard (average game all year: UNC, 42-19) and on the ground (No. 3 in the country in yards-per-play differential against FBS teams, ahead of Ohio State).

The schedule is a problem. Long said the committee is “aware” the Heels played two FCS opponents. The Heels have only four wins over .500-plus teams (that’s only one behind Ohio State, but, well, you know). However, they could add two more at Virginia Tech and at NC State before their likely shot at No. 1 Clemson.

So here’s everything still on the table for UNC:

Add all that together, and it’s not at all far-fetched that No. 17 could scream all the way to No. 4 in three weeks.