Not having a Big 12 title game could actually help Oklahoma, and 3 other Playoff ranking takeaways

by Bill Connelly

Using S&P+ win probabilities, here are the odds of winning out for each of the 13 teams in the new top 25 most likely to qualify for the College Football Playoff (i.e., the top 12 and North Carolina):

* For teams that haven’t yet clinched a spot in the conference title game -- Alabama, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan -- these odds represent the odds of winning if they end up there.

Note to the Big 12: this is why not having a title game could be a good thing. I understand everybody flipped out last year when Ohio State passed Baylor and TCU after destroying Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, but the “destroyed Wisconsin” part was the most important. A 13th game is a 13th opportunity for a loss.

If Oklahoma had to play in a Big 12 title game against, say, Baylor, a week after beating Oklahoma State, the Sooners’ odds of winning out would be around 35 percent. As it stands, the Sooners have the second-best chance of winning out.

Iowa faces a tough game at Nebraska, but the Hawkeyes have a better than 50 percent chance of finishing 12-0. Their main problem is that they only have a 20 percent chance of finishing 13-0. That might even out for the conference if Michigan State is the team vanquishing the Hawkeyes, but what if it’s two-loss Michigan? What if the Big Ten’s spot ends up going to Notre Dame?

by Bud Elliott

With a clear top three and a noticeable drop off in quality after, the No. 1 seed is a big advantage beyond playing in a game closer to home.

Clemson could well be close to a Vegas tossup against Oklahoma, which has multiple excellent performances on the season, but would likely be favorites of at least a touchdown against Iowa, Michigan State and an injury-riddled Notre Dame if recent line trends hold. Advanced stats agree; Oklahoma’s No. 4 in S&P+, ahead of the Irish and well ahead of the top two Big Ten contenders.

Plus, if Alabama is as good as power ratings indicate, avoiding Nick Saban’s club for as long as possible is for the best. Clemson should be big Florida State fans this weekend, as an FSU win over Florida will both boost the Tigers’ resume and reduce Alabama’s, should both the top two seeds win out.

by Pete Volk

There are 15 teams still in contention for a power conference title. If your team is one of them and is in the top 20, it probably has at least a long shot at the Playoff. Add in No. 6 Notre Dame, too.

All will play at least one game against a ranked opponent before the committee’s final ranking. Nine are playing ranked opponents this week. Seven of the top eight teams play road games. Things are going to happen.

That includes two top-10 matchups this weekend (No. 8 Ohio State at No. 10 Michigan, No. 6 Notre Dame at No. 9 Stanford) and a set of rivalry games.

Even the top teams not playing ranked opponents have some potential difficulties ahead, and late November is the time of upsets. No. 4 Iowa has only a 52 percent chance of beating Nebraska, per S&P+, No. 5 Michigan State hosts one of the best defenses in the country in Penn State, and No. 1 Clemson and No. 2 Alabama travel to face hated rivals.

And then there’s conference title weekend. Basically, there’s a whole lot of really important football left to be played, and every single serious contender has at least one major game left.

by Jason Kirk

The Playoff committee explaining its weekly rankings by having one member answer questions for a couple minutes is not working.

“Oklahoma’s body of work, they added to it this past week with another top-25-ranked team. They’ve done that over the last two weeks,” chairman Jeff Long said on ESPN as the top 25’s reveal showed the Sooners jumped from No. 7 to No. 3 after beating then-No. 18 TCU. Okay, with you so far.

“It was more about the performance of Oklahoma and Michigan State against top-ranked teams that propelled them ahead of Notre Dame,” he said when asked whether Notre Dame’s slog against Boston College helped OU. Got it.

But then Long said this off the air:

Now you’ve lost us all.

Oklahoma won by only a few yards against TCU, which was without starting quarterback Trevone Boykin for the entire game. Even if Mayfield had missed the whole game (he played a full half, and his injury didn’t cause OU to give up an 86-yard score or a 12-play touchdown drive in the fourth), the Frogs still would’ve had more injury issues. The other win cited by Long came against Baylor, which was down to its true freshman backup quarterback, who himself got hurt against OU.

Why does Mayfield’s injury give Oklahoma extra credit and turn a one-point home win against a much lower-ranked team into a major resume boost, but the bigger injuries of the teams it’s beating apparently don’t matter? And why is Notre Dame no longer getting injury points, considering the Irish are about as banged up as TCU, are down to their original third-string QB and lost yet another starter or two last weekend?

Ranking Oklahoma No. 3 and ahead of Notre Dame is reasonable. OU’s beaten good teams and blown away bad teams. The Irish are just getting by. The computers love the Sooners.

But every week, the committee’s explanations by Long only confuse, distract and raise doubt. We’ve started doing a weekly prediction of what baffling thing he’ll say. Long is terrible at this part of his job, and I don’t know if anyone would be good at it. This made-for-TV event should instead publish a weekly written explanation of its rankings, incorporating thoughts from every member.

That will only happen if public understanding of what these 12 people do in quiet control of the country’s second most popular sport is actually a goal.