Can Cal overcome frustration and Air Force’s aggression in the Armed Forces Bowl?

In September, California played like a legitimate top-25 team, treating Grambling poorly (73-14), whipping what turned out to be a pretty good San Diego State, and surviving road trips to Texas and Washington, another opponent that turned out to be pretty good.

In October, Cal hit the skids. A narrow win over Washington State moved the Golden Bears to 5-0, but losses at Utah and UCLA and a frustrating home loss to USC killed the good feelings.

In November, Cal was bipolar: great against Oregon State and good enough against Arizona State and not nearly good enough at Oregon and Stanford.

The result: a season of undeniable growth -- seven wins and a top-50 S&P+ ranking for the first time since 2011 -- in the most frustrating way possible.

Rearrange the months, and you get a different sentiment. Start with October, then November, then September, and you have a budding program that finished strong and built for the future. Instead, you’re looking at a team that hit a low ceiling. Star quarterback Jared Goff is almost certainly off to the pros, and head coach Sonny Dykes seemed to interview for every open job under the sun before settling in on a contract extension from Cal.

This was a pretty negative good season, one for which full-season averages can only tell us so much. What we likely know is this is the last time we’ll get to watch Goff playing college football. That, along with his occasionally brilliant receiving corps, is reason enough to tune in. Goff threw for 4,252 yards and 37 touchdowns; his footwork is unmatchable, and his command of Cal’s efficiency-first passing game is fun.

It will be interesting to watch how Air Force chooses to attack. The Falcons have found a defensive identity through unabashed attacking. Defensive backs Weston Steelhammer and Roland Lapido have combined for 15 tackles for loss, eight interceptions, and 23 break-ups, and we’ll see if Air Force can disrupt Goff’s timing. A few Pac-12 opponents were able to, but only a few.

Air Force was one of the biggest surprises in the country in 2014, rebounding from 2-10 to 10-3 and from 114th to 48th in the F/+ rankings in one season. The Falcons had to replace their quarterback and nearly every defensive play-maker this offseason, so it was fair to assume some regression. Instead in 2015, they came within three points of their first conference title since 1998.

Head coach Troy Calhoun has found something. The offense, you know. Though they incorporate zone blocking techniques and wrinkles different than that of the Navy-Georgia Tech option, they run the ball more frequently than almost anyone, and they’re super steady with it. They don’t produce a ton of big plays, but they never lose ground. They convert in short-yardage, they move the chains, and they keep your offense off the field. And when they do pass, they go big: quarterback Karson Roberts has completed only 70 passes this year, but he’s averaging nearly 21 yards per completion.

The most interesting developments have come on the defensive side. Despite the lack of size requisite for a service academy, Air Force has figured out how to become an almost Michigan State-style efficiency defense; the Falcons are fifth in the country, allowing just a 33 percent success rate and forcing teams into second- and third-and-long.

They are willing to risk big plays for three-and-outs, and the successful plays they do allow are the biggest in the country. But the risks pay off. With only a couple of linemen topping 265, the Falcons rank 21st in Adj. Line Yards and 13th in Adj. Sack Rate

Air Force has an efficiency-first defense, and Cal has an efficiency-first offense. What does that mean for the Armed Forces Bowl? I’m not sure. I can’t wait to find out if or how Air Force can stop Cal ... and whether Cal’s improving-but-flawed defense can handle the Falcons’ “run at you from every angle” offense.

Check out the monstrous stat preview here.

How frequently does the dam break for either defense? That will tell us most of what we need to know.

It’s more important, though, when Cal’s offense is on the field. The Bears have big-play potential, but Goff throws short frequently. Can Air Force tackle well enough or get hands on enough passes to prevent a four-yard pass from becoming a 20-yard gain?

And once into passing downs, will Goff have enough time to look downfield before Alex Hansen, D.J. Dunn Jr., and a wave of Air Force pass rushers comes crashing in? The answers could dictate a blowout in either direction.