Why Michigan State is a Playoff team without recruiting like one

It’s well-established that recruiting rankings are generally predictive of success. Teams that finish higher in the recruiting rankings generally win more games, and players that are rated higher have a better chance of being drafted into the NFL.

As expected, the College Football Playoff participants of the past two seasons have been among the best recruiters in the country.

Seven of the eight Playoff teams have averaged top-16 recruiting over their five previous classes, according to the 247Sports Composite ratings. Four averaged top-seven classes.

Here are those recruiting averages compared to S&P+, which measures on-field quality and does not include any recruiting ratings in its formula at this point in the season.

The exception, Michigan State, should be a borderline top-25 team, according to the recruiting rankings. But after consecutive wins in the Rose Bowl and Cotton Bowl the last two seasons, this year’s team is in the top 10 of S&P+ and in the Playoff.

The Spartans are likely the worst team in this year’s Playoff, which is hardly a bad thing to be. They absolutely have a chance to win the whole thing. The advanced stats think they’re better than last year’s Florida State, which ranked 22nd in 2014 S&P+.

So how does MSU do it? The Spartans might not recruit at an elite level, but they maximize their potential by developing top talent at key positions to play with America’s elite. Michigan State has recruited only seven top-200 recruits since 2011, but almost all of them have panned out.

McDowell, the only five-star of the bunch, has been a force since coming to East Lansing, and he’s a future All-Big Ten player. Scott was the star of this year’s Big Ten Championship Game, leading a final drive for the ages to beat Iowa, while Burbridge is the best receiver in the Big Ten. Thomas rounds out the top 100, and while he hasn’t been a star, he has been solid at linebacker, defensive tackle and defensive end.

That’s an incredible hit rate for elite recruits.

The Spartans can get elite defensive line recruits, and even running back or secondary recruits, given their track record of producing talent for the NFL. But it’s hard to recruit top players at key positions that are so sought-after by other programs. That’s particularly true at quarterback, as MSU has only gotten one four-star quarterback in the past four years, with so much competition from neighboring powers for the few top quarterbacks that come out of the region.

That’s where the Spartans work furiously to develop players. They found the sixth best-quarterback in Ohio, Connor Cook, in 2011, while Ohio State took the best pro-style (Cardale Jones) and dual-threat (Braxton Miller) prospects in the state that year. They found a quarterback with a big frame and a great arm who missed out on much of the camp circuit.

Before that, the Spartans thrived with Kirk Cousins, who ranked as the 64th-best overall quarterback in the country, out of a small Division 4 high school in Holland, Mich.

Recruiting rankings matter, and it’s no shock that some of Michigan State’s best and most promising players are top recruits. That’s not due to random chance. But the Spartans have gotten the most out of their best recruits and developed players in key positions they can’t recruit as well.