Big plays will be the key to the Iowa-Stanford Rose Bowl

This year’s Iowa-Stanford Rose Bowl will be pitched as a physical battle between two teams that prefer to play in a phone booth, rather than stretch the field. That’s mostly true, as Iowa and Stanford are about as resistant to the spread offense as they come.

Iowa has more offensive linemen drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft than any team since 2004. Stanford likes to play with ALL THE LINEMAN, in what essentially looks like this to opposing defenses.

So rest assured, there will be old school football in this year’s Rose Bowl. But it won’t necessarily be three yards and a cloud of dust. This year’s Rose Bowl could be decided by big plays, as both teams will need to test the opposing defense vertically to win.

It would be a mistake to call either team “explosive.” Stanford ranks 20th nationally in the S&P+ IsoPPP metric, while Iowa ranks 48th. But both have the potential to break big plays against their opponents.

The Hawkeyes took their foot off the gas with incredibly conservative game plans as they coasted to a 12-0 season, but before that, against the meat of its schedule, Iowa was a master of big plays. Through seven games, the Hawkeyes had 12 plays of 40 yards or longer, which ranked 11th nationally and first in the Big Ten. They finished with 17 such plays — still better than any other season under offensive coordinator Greg Davis.

Iowa has become more explosive under new quarterback C.J. Beathard and a dominating offensive line that opens up holes for quick, shifty running backs. Even as Iowa kept things close to the vest in the final two games, the Hawkeyes’ most important plays were the big ones — a touchdown run of 68 yards by Jordan Canzeri against Nebraska and an 85-yard touchdown pass from Beathard to Tevaun Smith against Michigan State.

Iowa has to hit at least one long play, and maybe more, to beat an elite Stanford offense, but the Cardinal aren’t great at defending those plays the Hawkeyes have shown an ability to hit. Stanford’s defense ranks 58th nationally in opponent-adjusted IsoPPP, and the Cardinal are 54th in defending plays of 40-plus yards.

The Hawkeyes took far too long to test Michigan State deep. If they test Stanford, we could get a bit of a shootout.

That’s because on the other side of the ball, Stanford’s ability to keep up will hinge on its ability to break big plays on the Hawkeyes. Iowa will attempt to control the tempo and keep everything in front with their classic bend-don’t-break, opportunistic defense. They’ll let Stanford have short gains, but they won’t let anything over the top.

Iowa doesn’t have a player like McCaffrey, and the Hawkeyes also haven’t faced one like him all season. If he can break this defense like no other offense could, then Stanford will win. But considering how he has performed against similar teams, that’s not necessarily a given.

McCaffrey was dominant against a very good Washington defense, due mostly to long catches. However, he was held mostly at bay against Northwestern and Notre Dame, and that resulted in a loss and a near-loss.

Both of these teams will run the ball between the tackles, and both will try to push their way down the field with brute force. This is Iowa and Stanford after all. But both the Cardinal and the Hawkeyes can have success with big plays. Whichever team is the most explosive will win.