The Stanford-Iowa Rose Bowl should be the ultimate in beautiful, happy slugfests

Above all else, you search for enthusiasm in bowl season. You want to see players, coaches, and fans who care and who want to be involved with their bowl. You want to know teams are taking this seriously. It makes for a better experience, and, though it is a lesser concern, it makes games a little easier to predict.

The Rose Bowl won’t be a concern, not with Iowa involved. Not with fans allegedly attempting to black-and-gold stripe the Pasadena stands like it’s a home game.

This has been a blessed season in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes rode to a 12-0 start and a Big Ten West title, winning five games by one possession with a combination of timely offense, big-play prevention, and opportunism. They forced mistakes, made few, rendered you one-dimensional, and eventually eased by you.

Iowa fans, who could have put pressure on their athletic director and struggling head coach in leaner times by not showing up, showed up in droves. They invaded Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game, and they sold out their allotment of Rose Bowl tickets in the time it took me to type the phrase “Rose Bowl tickets.” Pasadena will be black and gold, and the team will be ready to shine in its first Rose Bowl since January 1991.

The question is whether that’s enough. Iowa ranks a paltry 34th in S&P+ despite a 12-1 record, and while that’s a bit of an outlier, it’s not much of one. Other measures that dial into the per-play level see something similar. ESPN’s FPI ranks the Hawkeyes 28th, and Ed Feng’s Power Rank slots them 29th. I delved into these ratings toward the end of the season -- the tl;dr version: their best win came against S&P+ No. 28 Wisconsin, and they only topped the 90th percentile in two games (as seen here) -- so there’s no need to rehash much.

Regardless, Stanford grades out better, though not as well as Michigan State, which nearly fell to the Hawkeyes.

Both teams are going to be perfectly comfortable. The Cardinal and Hawkeyes rank 81st and 98th in adjusted pace, and they rank 126th and 102nd in possessions per game. They both run on standard downs, take away the opponent’s run, and force you to gang tackle. There will be no contrast in styles; the winner will be decided by who executes this style better.

And if home-field advantage tips this, that might benefit the team from 1,900 miles away.

A year after falling to 8-5 -- Stanford’s first season with fewer than 11 wins under David Shaw -- in part because of almost unsustainably bad red zone execution (3.9 points per scoring opportunity, 109th in FBS), the Cardinal went to Evanston and failed in familiar ways. In three scoring opportunities, they kicked two field goals and threw an interception. They also punted from the Northwestern 16-6. And despite only allowing 4.2 yards per play to the Wildcats, they began 0-1 with a 16-6 loss.

Same old, same old, right? Not so much. The Cardinal turned things around instantly.

They blazed past USC in the Coliseum two weeks later, then beat Arizona, UCLA, and Washington -- bowl teams -- by an average of 47-22. Despite a slovenly tempo, Stanford scored 30 points in each of its final 12 games, ranking seventh in Off. S&P+ and fourth in points per scoring opportunity (5.6).

Stanford lost only one more game, and that was mostly on a defense that has struggled with depth and inexperience. The Cardinal rank 54th in Def. S&P+ and allowed 38 points and 9.1 yards per play to a smoking hot Oregon, which knocked them out of the title race. But they responded with wins over rival Cal, Notre Dame, and USC again in the Pac-12 title game.

Win or lose in Pasadena, Stanford has now won 11 or more games in four of five years under Shaw and five of six overall. They are making their third Rose appearance in four years and fifth major bowl appearance in six. They have produced the Heisman runner-up in four of the last seven seasons.

Stanford has, with Oregon, become the Joneses of the new Pac-12, one that is still waiting for UCLA and USC to get their acts together. Shaw has proven one of the best coaches in the country, even with Jim Harbaugh’s recruits cycling out and Shaw constantly losing top assistants.

This year’s runner-up, Christian McCaffrey, gives Stanford a weapon unlike any Iowa has faced. His ability to carry a feature back’s load (25 carries per game) and roast linebackers as the offense’s No. 3 receiver (11.2 yards per target) contradicts itself -- he’s fast for such a load carrier.

But the Cardinal’s ability to create mismatches might be negated if Iowa can take advantage of Stanford’s shortcomings on defense, namely big plays allowed on the ground (eight rushes of 30-plus yards allowed, 62nd in FBS) and efficiency allowed through the air (122.9 passer rating allowed, 53rd). Iowa running back Jordan Canzeri is a big-play threat, and quarterback C.J. Beathard had a 61 percent completion rate. Beathard’s availability is questionable because of an ongoing hip issue; if he can’t go, then Canzeri might shoulder more of the big-play pressure.

Check out the monstrous stat preview here.

I was tempted to go with rushing here since both offenses are run-heavy on standard downs, and since opponents elected to attack these defenses through the air because running was harder.

But really, with this game so defined and likely low on possessions, the impact of field position and finishing drives will be substantial.

Stanford is the poster child for the effect of drive finishing on your bottom line, and both teams were good at field position -- Stanford because of offensive efficiency and kick returns, Iowa because of defensive efficiency and kick returns. Any advantage in these categories will be magnified by the fact that there won’t be many scoring opportunities.