2015 Armed Forces Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Air Force vs. California
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
December 29 ( 2:00 PM ET, ESPN ), Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth
Spread: California -7
S&P+ Projection: California 33.3, Air Force 32.8
Team Sites: California Golden Blogs, MWC Connection (Air Force)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | California | Air Force | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 41 | 46 | ||
| Category | California offense | Air Force defense | Air Force offense | California defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.67 (9) | 5.24 (57) | 6.20 (21) | 5.60 (91) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 531.8 (8) | 334.2 (20) | 450.9 (32) | 436.4 (100) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.77 (23) | 1.86 (48) | 2.62 (34) | 2.30 (84) |
| Category | California offense | Air Force defense | Air Force offense | California defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 38.9 (17) | 27.5 (63) | 34.6 (30) | 31.3 (87) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 112.6 (25) | 106.4 (44) | 114.8 (20) | 98.8 (73) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 127.3 (9) | 103.5 (54) | 132.7 (5) | 90.4 (98) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 118.5 (15) | 99.2 (66) | 115.8 (18) | 94.0 (89) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 137.2 (8) | 107.7 (45) | 100.1 (66) | 101.3 (66) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 114.6 (35) | 88.0 (106) | 104.2 (63) | 101.4 (56) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 128.8 (11) | 130.2 (8) | 111.2 (40) | 93.4 (90) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 134.7 (3) | 105.4 (56) | 118.4 (27) | 98.6 (73) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 117.1 (17) | 112.1 (31) | 119.3 (16) | 92.3 (101) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
California
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 13 offense vs. No. 119 defense)
- Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 9 offense vs. No. 99 defense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 33 offense vs. No. 101 defense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 6 offense vs. No. 59 defense)
- Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 15 offense vs. No. 66 defense)
Air Force
- Run Stuffs (No. 5 offense vs. No. 104 defense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 2 offense vs. No. 99 defense)
- Passing S&P+ (No. 5 offense vs. No. 98 defense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 20 offense vs. No. 103 defense)
- First Down S&P+ (No. 11 offense vs. No. 91 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | California offense | Air Force defense | Air Force offense | California defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.31 (41) | 1.65 (128) | 1.33 (30) | 1.23 (56) |
| EFFICIENCY | 49.3% (10) | 33.0% (5) | 46.0% (23) | 45.8% (105) |
| FIELD POSITION | 28.6 (101) | 29.0 (51) | 28.7 (96) | 29.9 (69) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.7 (78) | 4.7 (72) | 5.3 (17) | 5.0 (98) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: California 0.94 (62) Air Force 1.72 (55) | ACTUAL California 2 (52) Air Force -3 (87) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | California offense | Air Force offense |
| Adj. Pace | 2.6 (34) | 4.9 (25) |
| Plays per game | 79.7 (22) | 72.8 (68) |
| Possessions per game | 13.2 (60) | 12.8 (77) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 46.8% (122) | 86.9% (4) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 18.5% (126) | 66.7% (4) |
| % of solo tackles | 71.1% (95) | 70.4% (96) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | California defense | Air Force defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 62.7% (41) | 66.4% (15) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 30.0% (102) | 33.6% (68) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 13.9% (100) | 18.8% (24) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 6.9% (114) | 10.6% (37) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 6.8% (47) | 8.0% (16) |
| PD to INC | 34.8% (45) | 32.4% (68) |
When California has the ball…
Standard Downs
| California Offense | Air Force Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 118.5 | 15 | 99.2 | 66 | California big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 51.7 | 19 | 37.1 | 5 | Air Force |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.20 | 25 | 1.10 | 128 | California big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.03 | 46 | 2.48 | 16 | Air Force |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.1% | 50 | 5.2% | 57 | |
Passing Downs
| California Offense | Air Force Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 137.2 | 8 | 107.7 | 45 | California |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 43.1 | 1 | 26.1 | 25 | California |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.64 | 96 | 1.75 | 102 | |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 4.43 | 3 | 2.75 | 25 | California |
| PD Sack Rate | 4.6% | 19 | 11.9% | 10 | |
When Air Force has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Air Force Offense | California Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 115.8 | 18 | 94.0 | 89 | Air Force big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 50.8 | 26 | 51.6 | 112 | Air Force big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.22 | 21 | 1.55 | 68 | Air Force |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.27 | 15 | 3.24 | 112 | Air Force big |
| SD Sack Rate | 2.8% | 25 | 5.7% | 41 | Air Force |
Passing Downs
| Air Force Offense | California Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 100.1 | 66 | 101.3 | 66 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 31.1 | 61 | 30.9 | 71 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.87 | 40 | 1.90 | 63 | Air Force |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.56 | 33 | 3.49 | 92 | Air Force big |
| PD Sack Rate | 0% | 1 | 8.4% | 41 | Air Force |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| California | Jared Goff | 6'4, 215 | JR | 316 | 492 | 4252 | 37 | 13 | 64.2% | 25 | 4.8% | 7.8 |
| California | Chase Forrest | 6'2, 190 | FR | 10 | 18 | 162 | 1 | 1 | 55.6% | 1 | 5.3% | 8.3 |
| Air Force | Karson Roberts | 6'0, 195 | SR | 70 | 134 | 1446 | 9 | 10 | 52.2% | 2 | 1.5% | 10.6 |
| Air Force | Nate Romine | 5'11, 195 | JR | 7 | 18 | 143 | 2 | 1 | 38.9% | 0 | 0.0% | 7.9 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| California | Vic Enwere | RB | 6'1, 230 | SO | 98 | 486 | 7 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 38.8% |
| California | Khalfani Muhammad | RB | 5'9, 170 | JR | 78 | 539 | 1 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 48.7% |
| California | Tre Watson | RB | 5'10, 195 | SO | 75 | 424 | 3 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 44.0% |
| California | Daniel Lasco | RB | 6'1, 205 | SR | 65 | 331 | 3 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 41.5% |
| Air Force | Jacobi Owens | RB | 6'0, 202 | JR | 188 | 1013 | 6 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 39.4% |
| Air Force | Karson Roberts | QB | 6'0, 195 | SR | 150 | 679 | 9 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 40.7% |
| Air Force | D.J. Johnson | RB | 5'10, 235 | JR | 82 | 425 | 6 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 40.2% |
| Air Force | Benton Washington | RB | 5'11, 205 | SO | 55 | 321 | 4 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 52.7% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| California | Kenny Lawler | WR | 6'3, 195 | JR | 78 | 47 | 583 | 10 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 60.3% |
| California | Bryce Treggs | WR | 6'0, 185 | SR | 67 | 41 | 794 | 6 | 19.4 | 11.9 | 61.2% |
| California | Darius Powe | WR | 6'3, 220 | SR | 62 | 43 | 490 | 6 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 69.4% |
| California | Stephen Anderson | TE | 6'3, 230 | SR | 59 | 40 | 460 | 2 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 67.8% |
| California | Trevor Davis | WR | 6'2, 185 | SR | 52 | 38 | 653 | 2 | 17.2 | 12.6 | 73.1% |
| California | Maurice Harris | WR | 6'3, 195 | SR | 50 | 36 | 510 | 6 | 14.2 | 10.2 | 72.0% |
| California | Khalfani Muhammad | RB | 5'9, 170 | JR | 27 | 17 | 189 | 2 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 63.0% |
| Air Force | Jalen Robinette | WR | 6'4, 215 | JR | 50 | 21 | 572 | 4 | 27.2 | 11.4 | 42.0% |
| Air Force | Garrett Brown | WR | 5'9, 180 | SR | 38 | 26 | 534 | 1 | 20.5 | 14.1 | 68.4% |
| Air Force | Garrett Griffin | TE | 6'4, 240 | SR | 17 | 12 | 208 | 3 | 17.3 | 12.2 | 70.6% |
| Air Force | Timothy McVey | RB | 5'9, 190 | SO | 10 | 9 | 250 | 3 | 27.8 | 25.0 | 90.0% |
| Air Force | Ryan Reffitt | TE | 6'5, 230 | SO | 8 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7.0 | 1.8 | 25.0% |
| Air Force | Bryan Driskell | RB | 5'8, 190 | JR | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 50.0% |
| Air Force | Alex Ludowig | WR | 5'11, 170 | SR | 3 | 2 | 45 | 1 | 22.5 | 15.0 | 66.7% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| California | Hardy Nickerson | LB | 6'0, 225 | JR | 74.0 | 10.5% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| California | Damariay Drew | S | 5'11, 200 | JR | 51.0 | 7.2% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| California | Kyle Kragen | DE | 6'2, 245 | SR | 48.5 | 6.9% | 7.0 | 6.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| California | Jalen Jefferson | LB | 6'2, 240 | SR | 46.5 | 6.6% | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| California | Darius White | CB | 6'0, 180 | SR | 46.5 | 6.6% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| California | Stefan McClure | S | 5'11, 205 | SR | 40.5 | 5.7% | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| California | Darius Allensworth | CB | 6'0, 190 | SO | 34.0 | 4.8% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| California | Luke Rubenzer | S | 6'0, 195 | SO | 30.5 | 4.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| California | Cameron Walker | DB | 5'10, 185 | JR | 27.0 | 3.8% | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| California | James Looney | DT | 6'3, 280 | SO | 23.0 | 3.2% | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| California | Devante Downs | LB | 6'3, 240 | SO | 21.0 | 3.0% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| California | Raymond Davison | LB | 6'2, 225 | SO | 19.5 | 2.8% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| California | Griffin Piatt | S | 6'3, 205 | JR | 18.0 | 2.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Air Force | Weston Steelhammer | DB | 6'2, 200 | JR | 63.0 | 10.5% | 10.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Air Force | Roland Ladipo | DB | 5'10, 185 | JR | 61.0 | 10.2% | 4.5 | 1.0 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 0 |
| Air Force | Alex Hansen | DL | 6'3, 260 | SR | 49.0 | 8.2% | 15.5 | 7.5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Air Force | Claude Alexander III | LB | 6'1, 225 | JR | 45.0 | 7.5% | 10.5 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Air Force | Brodie Hicks | DB | 6'2, 200 | JR | 44.0 | 7.4% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Air Force | Grant Ross | LB | 6'0, 220 | SO | 40.0 | 6.7% | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Air Force | D.J. Dunn, Jr. | LB | 6'3, 240 | JR | 35.5 | 5.9% | 12.5 | 6.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Air Force | Jesse Washington | DB | 6'0, 185 | JR | 29.0 | 4.8% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Air Force | Patrick Healy | LB | 6'1, 225 | JR | 25.5 | 4.3% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Air Force | Lochlin Deeks | DL | 6'4, 265 | JR | 22.5 | 3.8% | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Air Force | Connor Healy | LB | 6'0, 225 | SR | 22.0 | 3.7% | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Air Force | Jacob Onyechi | LB | 6'1, 195 | JR | 21.5 | 3.6% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Air Force | Jack Flor | LB | 6'2, 225 | SO | 17.0 | 2.8% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| California | Cole Leininger | 6'1, 210 | SR | 35 | 41.5 | 1 | 19 | 11 | 85.7% |
| California | Jared Goff | 6'4, 215 | JR | 6 | 34.8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 50.0% |
| Air Force | Steve Brosy | , | 0 | 33 | 37.0 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 69.7% |
| Air Force | Brett Dunn | 5'10, 190 | SR | 13 | 41.5 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 76.9% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| California | Matt Anderson | 6'0, 185 | SO | 77 | 56.4 | 15 | 19.5% | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| California | Noah Beito | 6'0, 185 | JR | 4 | 57.8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Air Force | Luke Strebel | 5'10, 170 | SO | 42 | 62.3 | 24 | 57.1% | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Air Force | Drew Oehrle | 6'0, 175 | SR | 32 | 64.3 | 23 | 71.9% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| California | Matt Anderson | 6'0, 185 | SO | 43-45 | 16-19 | 84.2% |
| California | Noah Beito | 6'0, 185 | JR | 2-2 | 0-0 | #DIV/0! |
| Air Force | Luke Strebel | 5'10, 170 | SO | 33-33 | 10-11 | 90.9% |
| Air Force | Drew Oehrle | 6'0, 175 | SR | 18-20 | 3-5 | 60.0% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| California | Trevor Davis | 6'2, 185 | SR | 27 | 21.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| California | Kanawai Noa | 6'0, 175 | FR | 4 | 23.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Air Force | Tyler Williams | 5'10, 185 | SO | 12 | 22.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Air Force | Bryan Driskell | 5'8, 190 | JR | 4 | 13.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| California | Kanawai Noa | 6'0, 175 | FR | 4 | 3.8 | 0 | 6 | 1 (1) |
| California | Trevor Davis | 6'2, 185 | SR | 4 | 6.8 | 0 | 10 | 0 (0) |
| Air Force | Garrett Brown | 5'9, 180 | SR | 15 | 9.3 | 1 | 19 | 0 (0) |
| Air Force | Andrew Smith | , | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
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