2015 Arizona Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Colorado State vs. Nevada
Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports
December 29 ( 7:30 PM ET, ASN ), Arizona Stadium, Tucson
Spread: Colorado State -3.5
S&P+ Projection: Colorado State 33.7, Nevada 25.6
Team Sites: MWC Connection (Nevada), MWC Connection (CSU)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | Nevada | Colorado State | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 100 | 83 | ||
| Category | Nevada offense | Colorado State defense | Colorado State offense | Nevada defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.22 (85) | 5.51 (86) | 5.64 (48) | 5.35 (69) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 376.3 (84) | 399.3 (69) | 412.3 (54) | 388.5 (59) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.06 (85) | 2.12 (72) | 2.38 (54) | 2.28 (83) |
| Category | Nevada offense | Colorado State defense | Colorado State offense | Nevada defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 23.9 (96) | 31.4 (89) | 29.0 (64) | 34.5 (104) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 98.3 (81) | 89.9 (103) | 106.8 (51) | 92.8 (92) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 87.6 (103) | 93.1 (89) | 105.2 (50) | 88.9 (103) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 91.4 (106) | 94.9 (85) | 107.1 (46) | 92.2 (95) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 93.7 (90) | 78.4 (122) | 98.7 (74) | 88.1 (105) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 88.4 (108) | 94.1 (86) | 116.1 (31) | 98.9 (64) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 94.6 (93) | 89.2 (102) | 99.9 (73) | 81.9 (119) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 90.5 (102) | 90.5 (101) | 106.4 (56) | 96.5 (83) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 103.5 (65) | 94.4 (87) | 105.8 (51) | 94.2 (91) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Nevada
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 69 offense vs. No. 126 defense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 61 offense vs. No. 110 defense)
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 78 offense vs. No. 126 defense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 90 offense vs. No. 122 defense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 22 offense vs. No. 54 defense)
Colorado State
- Field Position (No. 23 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 22 offense vs. No. 118 defense)
- Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 25 offense vs. No. 115 defense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 21 offense vs. No. 110 defense)
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 43 offense vs. No. 125 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Nevada offense | Colorado State defense | Colorado State offense | Nevada defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.18 (106) | 1.34 (101) | 1.20 (96) | 1.22 (49) |
| EFFICIENCY | 41.8% (68) | 40.2% (59) | 46.8% (18) | 43.1% (82) |
| FIELD POSITION | 26.5 (124) | 27.5 (23) | 30.8 (46) | 31.8 (106) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.0 (49) | 4.7 (73) | 4.7 (72) | 4.6 (59) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Nevada 2.56 (46) Colorado State -7.25 (115) | ACTUAL Nevada 8 (18) Colorado State -11 (114) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Nevada offense | Colorado State offense |
| Adj. Pace | -0.1 (60) | -0.8 (66) |
| Plays per game | 72.1 (76) | 73.2 (64) |
| Possessions per game | 12.7 (86) | 12.7 (86) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 71.4% (13) | 63.5% (40) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 35.2% (51) | 40.7% (27) |
| % of solo tackles | 73.1% (79) | 70.4% (98) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Nevada defense | Colorado State defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 59.9% (63) | 66.8% (12) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 41.0% (11) | 36.4% (41) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 14.6% (93) | 16.5% (51) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 11.2% (29) | 10.9% (32) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 3.4% (127) | 5.6% (86) |
| PD to INC | 38.0% (24) | 26.1% (118) |
When Nevada has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Nevada Offense | Colorado State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 91.4 | 106 | 94.9 | 85 | Colorado State |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 46.0 | 73 | 44.0 | 46 | Colorado State |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.07 | 83 | 1.01 | 86 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.92 | 64 | 2.74 | 42 | Colorado State |
| SD Sack Rate | 2.6% | 22 | 5.3% | 54 | Nevada |
Passing Downs
| Nevada Offense | Colorado State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 93.7 | 90 | 78.4 | 122 | Nevada |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 32.2 | 49 | 32.3 | 87 | Nevada |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.55 | 115 | 1.95 | 104 | Colorado State |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.41 | 46 | 3.17 | 60 | Nevada |
| PD Sack Rate | 9.8% | 100 | 7.2% | 70 | Colorado State |
When Colorado State has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Colorado State Offense | Nevada Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 107.1 | 46 | 92.2 | 95 | Colorado State |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 51.5 | 21 | 48.8 | 89 | Colorado State big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.11 | 60 | 1.14 | 27 | Nevada |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.30 | 11 | 3.14 | 99 | Colorado State big |
| SD Sack Rate | 1.6% | 7 | 6% | 34 | Colorado State |
Passing Downs
| Colorado State Offense | Nevada Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 98.7 | 74 | 88.1 | 105 | Colorado State |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 34.9 | 30 | 30.1 | 59 | Colorado State |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.54 | 116 | 1.90 | 113 | |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.47 | 42 | 3.42 | 85 | Colorado State |
| PD Sack Rate | 5.6% | 33 | 6.4% | 83 | Colorado State |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Nevada | Tyler Stewart | 6'4, 220 | JR | 180 | 313 | 2065 | 15 | 7 | 57.5% | 21 | 6.3% | 5.7 |
| Nevada | Hunter Fralick | 6'2, 205 | FR | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Colorado State | Nick Stevens | 6'3, 205 | SO | 189 | 305 | 2369 | 21 | 12 | 62.0% | 12 | 3.8% | 7.2 |
| Colorado State | Coleman Key | 6'4, 220 | FR | 21 | 44 | 251 | 3 | 3 | 47.7% | 2 | 4.3% | 5.1 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| Nevada | Don Jackson | RB | 5'10, 210 | SR | 222 | 1029 | 8 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 29.7% |
| Nevada | James Butler | RB | 5'9, 200 | SO | 185 | 1157 | 8 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 40.5% |
| Nevada | Tyler Stewart | QB | 6'4, 220 | JR | 73 | 458 | 4 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 58.9% |
| Nevada | Blake Wright | RB | 5'10, 200 | FR | 4 | 8 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 25.0% |
| Colorado State | Dalyn Dawkins | RB | 5'9, 175 | SO | 156 | 805 | 2 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 44.9% |
| Colorado State | Jasen Oden, Jr. | RB | 5'11, 220 | SR | 146 | 695 | 5 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 32.2% |
| Colorado State | Izzy Matthews | RB | 6'0, 215 | FR | 85 | 503 | 5 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 47.1% |
| Colorado State | Nick Stevens | QB | 6'3, 205 | SO | 26 | 105 | 2 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 46.2% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| Nevada | Jerico Richardson | WR | 5'11, 190 | JR | 105 | 64 | 703 | 5 | 11.0 | 6.7 | 61.0% |
| Nevada | Hasaan Henderson | WR | 6'5, 220 | JR | 86 | 51 | 702 | 4 | 13.8 | 8.2 | 59.3% |
| Nevada | Wyatt Demps | WR | 6'4, 195 | SO | 45 | 27 | 232 | 0 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 60.0% |
| Nevada | Jarred Gipson | TE | 6'1, 240 | JR | 28 | 19 | 247 | 5 | 13.0 | 8.8 | 67.9% |
| Nevada | Don Jackson | RB | 5'10, 210 | SR | 12 | 7 | 77 | 1 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 58.3% |
| Nevada | James Butler | RB | 5'9, 200 | SO | 12 | 7 | 44 | 0 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 58.3% |
| Nevada | Victor Gonzalez | WR | 6'0, 170 | FR | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 25.0% |
| Colorado State | Rashard Higgins | WR | 6'2, 190 | JR | 92 | 66 | 933 | 8 | 14.1 | 10.1 | 71.7% |
| Colorado State | Joe Hansley | WR | 5'10, 180 | SR | 52 | 26 | 384 | 6 | 14.8 | 7.4 | 50.0% |
| Colorado State | Xavier Williams | WR | 6'4, 215 | SO | 33 | 19 | 231 | 2 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 57.6% |
| Colorado State | Kivon Cartwright | TE | 6'4, 245 | SR | 32 | 18 | 279 | 2 | 15.5 | 8.7 | 56.2% |
| Colorado State | Dalyn Dawkins | RB | 5'9, 175 | SO | 30 | 21 | 143 | 1 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 70.0% |
| Colorado State | Jordon Vaden | WR | 6'3, 195 | JR | 19 | 9 | 160 | 0 | 17.8 | 8.4 | 47.4% |
| Colorado State | Deionte Gaines | WR | 5'8, 180 | SO | 19 | 13 | 112 | 1 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 68.4% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Nevada | Asauni Rufus | DB | 6'0, 190 | FR | 74.5 | 11.1% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Nevada | Jordan Dobrich | LB | 6'2, 240 | SR | 69.0 | 10.3% | 5.5 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Nevada | Matthew Lyons | LB | 6'2, 220 | SR | 54.0 | 8.0% | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nevada | Dameon Baber | DB | 5'11, 180 | FR | 48.5 | 7.2% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nevada | Bryan Lane Jr. | LB | 6'4, 220 | SR | 43.5 | 6.5% | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Nevada | Lenny Jones | DE | 6'3, 270 | SR | 39.5 | 5.9% | 11.5 | 6.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Nevada | Faigofie Faaituala | LB | 6'1, 230 | SR | 35.5 | 5.3% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Nevada | Kendall Johnson | DB | 6'0, 185 | SO | 33.0 | 4.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nevada | Ian Seau | DE | 6'3, 250 | SR | 30.5 | 4.5% | 15.5 | 9.0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Nevada | Elijah Mitchell | DB | 5'8, 180 | JR | 27.0 | 4.0% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Nevada | Ahki Muhammad | DB | 5'9, 185 | FR | 26.0 | 3.9% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nevada | Rykeem Yates | DL | 6'2, 280 | SR | 24.0 | 3.6% | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nevada | Alex Bertrando | LB | 6'2, 225 | JR | 24.0 | 3.6% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Colorado State | Kevin Davis | LB | 6'3, 240 | JR | 68.5 | 10.4% | 14.0 | 3.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Colorado State | Kevin Pierre-Louis | DB | 6'1, 215 | SR | 67.0 | 10.2% | 4.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Colorado State | Trent Matthews | S | 6'3, 210 | SR | 59.5 | 9.0% | 3.5 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Colorado State | Deonte Clyburn | LB | 6'1, 230 | JR | 52.0 | 7.9% | 7.0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Colorado State | Cory James | LB | 6'0, 245 | SR | 46.5 | 7.1% | 10.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colorado State | Tyree Simmons | DB | 5'11, 185 | JR | 33.0 | 5.0% | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 |
| Colorado State | Kiel Robinson | LB | 6'2, 225 | SO | 30.5 | 4.6% | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Colorado State | Tre Thomas | LB | 6'1, 215 | FR | 27.0 | 4.1% | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colorado State | Preston Hodges | DB | 5'11, 200 | JR | 26.5 | 4.0% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Colorado State | DeAndre Elliott | DB | 6'1, 185 | SR | 25.5 | 3.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Colorado State | Josh Watson | LB | 6'2, 230 | FR | 25.0 | 3.8% | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colorado State | Nick Januska | DB | 6'2, 210 | SR | 23.0 | 3.5% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Colorado State | Joe Kawulok | DL | 6'6, 250 | SR | 22.5 | 3.4% | 6.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Nevada | Alex Boy | 6'3, 200 | JR | 63 | 42.3 | 4 | 27 | 18 | 71.4% |
| Colorado State | Hayden Hunt | 5'11, 220 | JR | 50 | 46.3 | 1 | 17 | 22 | 78.0% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| Nevada | Brent Zuzo | 5'10, 180 | JR | 60 | 62.1 | 25 | 41.7% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Colorado State | Braxton Davis | 5'11, 170 | FR | 63 | 63.4 | 26 | 41.3% | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Colorado State | Kyle Jacobs | 5'8, 175 | FR | 4 | 62.3 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Nevada | Brent Zuzo | 5'10, 180 | JR | 37-38 | 14-16 | 87.5% |
| Colorado State | Wyatt Bryan | 6'0, 175 | FR | 41-44 | 13-19 | 68.4% |
| Colorado State | Braxton Davis | 5'11, 170 | FR | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Nevada | Elijah Mitchell | 5'8, 180 | JR | 20 | 24.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Nevada | Andrew Celis | 5'11, 190 | FR | 2 | 18.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Colorado State | Deionte Gaines | 5'8, 180 | SO | 18 | 23.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 (0) |
| Colorado State | Jordon Vaden | 6'3, 195 | JR | 5 | 33.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 (1) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Nevada | Andrew Celis | 5'11, 190 | FR | 10 | 13.9 | 0 | 20 | 0 (0) |
| Nevada | Elijah Mitchell | 5'8, 180 | JR | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 (1) |
| Colorado State | Joe Hansley | 5'10, 180 | SR | 21 | 12.8 | 2 | 14 | 0 (0) |
| Colorado State | Preston Hodges | 5'11, 200 | JR | 3 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
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