2016 Taxslayer Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Georgia vs. Penn State


Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports
January 02 ( 12:00 PM ET, ESPN ), EverBank Field, Jacksonville
Spread: Georgia -7
S&P+ Projection: Penn State 24.8, Georgia 23.6
Team Sites: Black Shoe Diaries, Dawg Sports
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | Penn State | Georgia | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 29 | 37 | ||
| Category | Penn State offense | Georgia defense | Georgia offense | Penn State defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.19 (88) | 4.50 (11) | 5.67 (46) | 4.41 (9) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 344.2 (109) | 294.3 (5) | 369.3 (92) | 308.8 (11) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 1.78 (102) | 1.35 (12) | 2.12 (73) | 1.60 (24) |
| Category | Penn State offense | Georgia defense | Georgia offense | Penn State defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 30.3 (56) | 18.7 (11) | 28.3 (73) | 19.5 (16) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 108.9 (38) | 115.1 (23) | 116.7 (14) | 108.7 (39) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 96.2 (81) | 114.4 (23) | 116.5 (29) | 126.7 (8) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 107.2 (45) | 115.9 (16) | 118.9 (14) | 102.7 (53) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 90.3 (93) | 109.6 (38) | 101.9 (62) | 145.5 (4) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 106.2 (57) | 124.3 (15) | 116.5 (28) | 121.7 (18) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 105.8 (56) | 94.5 (84) | 118.4 (26) | 107.9 (53) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 101.1 (76) | 143.1 (3) | 130.3 (7) | 112.8 (34) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 104.9 (54) | 98.8 (69) | 107.7 (42) | 114.5 (26) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Penn State
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 46 defense vs. No. 110 offense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 11 defense vs. No. 73 offense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 4 defense vs. No. 62 offense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 4 defense vs. No. 60 offense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 34 offense vs. No. 75 defense)
Georgia
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 28 defense vs. No. 120 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 20 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
- Field Position (No. 25 offense vs. No. 98 defense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 52 defense vs. No. 116 offense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 32 defense vs. No. 94 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Penn State offense | Georgia defense | Georgia offense | Penn State defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.39 (15) | 1.26 (71) | 1.27 (60) | 1.15 (20) |
| EFFICIENCY | 36.9% (110) | 32.4% (4) | 42.9% (52) | 38.3% (37) |
| FIELD POSITION | 31.8 (34) | 28.1 (37) | 32.2 (25) | 31.2 (98) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.2 (102) | 4.0 (23) | 4.4 (91) | 4.9 (92) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Penn State 8.23 (11) Georgia -3.00 (99) | ACTUAL Penn State 5 (33) Georgia 3 (47) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Penn State offense | Georgia offense |
| Adj. Pace | -9.8 (128) | -7.8 (125) |
| Plays per game | 66.3 (123) | 65.2 (126) |
| Possessions per game | 13.3 (47) | 12.5 (96) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 53.5% (99) | 65.4% (31) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 32.9% (60) | 32.8% (61) |
| % of solo tackles | 75.8% (54) | 62.8% (124) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Penn State defense | Georgia defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 62.8% (40) | 66.8% (13) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 35.9% (45) | 40.7% (13) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 20.3% (9) | 15.6% (71) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 14.7% (2) | 9.3% (68) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 5.7% (85) | 6.2% (67) |
| PD to INC | 34.5% (50) | 26.7% (114) |
When Penn State has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Penn State Offense | Georgia Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 107.2 | 45 | 115.9 | 16 | Georgia |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 44.3 | 100 | 38.0 | 6 | Georgia big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.20 | 24 | 1.02 | 13 | Georgia |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.76 | 87 | 2.74 | 42 | Georgia |
| SD Sack Rate | 9.6% | 121 | 3.2% | 110 | Georgia |
Passing Downs
| Penn State Offense | Georgia Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 90.3 | 93 | 109.6 | 38 | Georgia big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 23.6 | 121 | 23.0 | 9 | Georgia big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.03 | 13 | 1.63 | 120 | Penn State big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.82 | 101 | 3.32 | 74 | Georgia |
| PD Sack Rate | 10.1% | 105 | 10.4% | 20 | Georgia big |
When Georgia has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Georgia Offense | Penn State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 118.9 | 14 | 102.7 | 53 | Georgia |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 49.4 | 35 | 47.1 | 74 | Georgia |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.16 | 39 | 0.99 | 30 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.02 | 48 | 2.81 | 55 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 2.7% | 24 | 5.9% | 37 | Georgia |
Passing Downs
| Georgia Offense | Penn State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 101.9 | 62 | 145.5 | 4 | Penn State big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 27.2 | 92 | 22.9 | 8 | Penn State big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.73 | 76 | 2.01 | 29 | Penn State |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.24 | 64 | 3.15 | 56 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 5.8% | 37 | 14.3% | 1 | Penn State |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Penn State | Christian Hackenberg | 6'4, 228 | JR | 184 | 345 | 2386 | 16 | 5 | 53.3% | 38 | 9.9% | 5.6 |
| Penn State | Trace McSorley | 6'0, 196 | FR | 6 | 13 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 46.2% | 1 | 7.1% | 2.7 |
| Georgia | Greyson Lambert | 6'5, 220 | JR | 152 | 236 | 1844 | 11 | 2 | 64.4% | 9 | 3.7% | 7.3 |
| Georgia | Brice Ramsey | 6'3, 213 | SO | 20 | 33 | 247 | 1 | 2 | 60.6% | 3 | 8.3% | 6.4 |
| Georgia | Faton Bauta | 6'3, 215 | JR | 15 | 33 | 154 | 0 | 4 | 45.5% | 1 | 2.9% | 4.4 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| Penn State | Saquon Barkley | RB | 5'11, 222 | FR | 165 | 1007 | 7 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 41.8% |
| Penn State | Akeel Lynch | RB | 5'11, 220 | JR | 54 | 278 | 2 | 5.1 | 8.7 | 29.6% |
| Penn State | Nick Scott | RB | 5'11, 198 | FR | 29 | 129 | 1 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 34.5% |
| Penn State | Mark Allen | RB | 5'6, 181 | FR | 28 | 101 | 1 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 25.0% |
| Georgia | Sony Michel | TB | 5'11, 212 | SO | 200 | 1076 | 7 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 32.5% |
| Georgia | Nick Chubb | TB | 5'10, 220 | SO | 93 | 747 | 7 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 47.3% |
| Georgia | Keith Marshall | TB | 5'11, 212 | SR | 54 | 288 | 3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 46.3% |
| Georgia | Brendan Douglas | TB | 5'11, 215 | JR | 36 | 140 | 0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 27.8% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| Penn State | Chris Godwin | WR | 6'1, 208 | SO | 106 | 64 | 970 | 5 | 15.2 | 9.2 | 60.4% |
| Penn State | DaeSean Hamilton | WR | 6'1, 206 | SO | 81 | 40 | 514 | 5 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 49.4% |
| Penn State | Geno Lewis | WR | 6'1, 205 | JR | 30 | 14 | 143 | 2 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 46.7% |
| Penn State | Mike Gesicki | TE | 6'6, 255 | SO | 30 | 13 | 125 | 1 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 43.3% |
| Penn State | Saquon Barkley | RB | 5'11, 222 | FR | 23 | 15 | 148 | 1 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 65.2% |
| Penn State | Kyle Carter | TE | 6'3, 252 | SR | 21 | 13 | 132 | 0 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 61.9% |
| Penn State | Saeed Blacknall | WR | 6'3, 211 | SO | 17 | 7 | 241 | 1 | 34.4 | 14.2 | 41.2% |
| Georgia | Malcolm Mitchell | SE | 6'1, 195 | SR | 84 | 53 | 751 | 4 | 14.2 | 8.9 | 63.1% |
| Georgia | Terry Godwin | WR | 5'11, 174 | FR | 50 | 31 | 345 | 1 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 62.0% |
| Georgia | Sony Michel | TB | 5'11, 212 | SO | 32 | 25 | 270 | 3 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 78.1% |
| Georgia | Jeb Blazevich | TE | 6'5, 248 | SO | 23 | 13 | 131 | 1 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 56.5% |
| Georgia | Reggie Davis | FL | 6'0, 170 | JR | 22 | 12 | 187 | 1 | 15.6 | 8.5 | 54.5% |
| Georgia | Isaiah McKenzie | WR | 5'8, 170 | SO | 17 | 10 | 123 | 0 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 58.8% |
| Georgia | Jay Rome | TE | 6'6, 250 | SR | 11 | 8 | 88 | 0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 72.7% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Penn State | Jason Cabinda | LB | 6'1, 245 | SO | 64.0 | 9.8% | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Penn State | Marcus Allen | S | 6'2, 209 | SO | 57.5 | 8.8% | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Penn State | Troy Reeder | LB | 6'1, 241 | FR | 54.5 | 8.4% | 5.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Penn State | Austin Johnson | DT | 6'4, 323 | JR | 48.0 | 7.4% | 13.0 | 5.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Penn State | Jordan Lucas | S | 6'0, 199 | SR | 45.0 | 6.9% | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Penn State | Brandon Bell | LB | 6'1, 231 | JR | 41.0 | 6.3% | 11.5 | 5.5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Penn State | Carl Nassib | DE | 6'7, 272 | SR | 38.5 | 5.9% | 19.5 | 15.5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Penn State | Anthony Zettel | DT | 6'4, 284 | SR | 31.0 | 4.8% | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Penn State | Grant Haley | CB | 5'9, 189 | SO | 28.0 | 4.3% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Penn State | Trevor Williams | CB | 6'0, 200 | SR | 26.0 | 4.0% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Penn State | Malik Golden | S | 6'0, 205 | JR | 24.0 | 3.7% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Penn State | John Reid | CB | 5'10, 186 | FR | 22.0 | 3.4% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Penn State | Garrett Sickels | DE | 6'4, 258 | SO | 21.5 | 3.3% | 4.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Georgia | Jake Ganus | ILB | 6'2, 233 | SR | 68.5 | 11.0% | 4.5 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Georgia | Leonard Floyd | OLB | 6'4, 231 | JR | 51.0 | 8.2% | 10.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Georgia | Tim Kimbrough | ILB | 6'0, 226 | JR | 47.5 | 7.6% | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Georgia | Quincy Mauger | FS | 6'0, 200 | JR | 44.5 | 7.1% | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Georgia | Jordan Jenkins | OLB | 6'3, 253 | SR | 41.0 | 6.6% | 10.5 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Georgia | Dominick Sanders | SS | 6'0, 189 | SO | 33.5 | 5.4% | 4.0 | 1.0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Georgia | Malkom Parrish | CB | 5'10, 188 | SO | 31.0 | 5.0% | 5.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Georgia | Aaron Davis | CB | 6'1, 190 | SO | 31.0 | 5.0% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Georgia | Sterling Bailey | DT | 6'3, 282 | SR | 29.5 | 4.7% | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Georgia | Chris Mayes | NG | 6'4, 323 | SR | 28.5 | 4.6% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Georgia | Davin Bellamy | OLB | 6'5, 241 | SO | 23.5 | 3.8% | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Georgia | Johnathan Abram | FS | 6'1, 200 | FR | 18.0 | 2.9% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Georgia | Trenton Thompson | DT | 6'4, 307 | FR | 16.5 | 2.6% | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Penn State | Daniel Pasquariello | 6'1, 200 | SO | 52 | 40.3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 34.6% |
| Penn State | Chris Gulla | 6'1, 199 | SO | 23 | 37.7 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 52.2% |
| Georgia | Collin Barber | 6'2, 208 | SR | 39 | 40.3 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 46.2% |
| Georgia | Brice Ramsey | 6'3, 213 | SO | 20 | 42.4 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 55.0% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| Penn State | Joey Julius | 5'10, 259 | FR | 49 | 63.2 | 21 | 42.9% | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Penn State | Tyler Davis | 5'11, 186 | SO | 10 | 59.5 | 3 | 30.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Georgia | Marshall Morgan | 6'3, 194 | SR | 56 | 62.6 | 17 | 30.4% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Georgia | Collin Barber | 6'2, 208 | SR | 9 | 62.1 | 5 | 55.6% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Penn State | Joey Julius | 5'10, 259 | FR | 20-24 | 10-12 | 83.3% |
| Penn State | Tyler Davis | 5'11, 186 | SO | 9-9 | 7-7 | 100.0% |
| Georgia | Marshall Morgan | 6'3, 194 | SR | 37-37 | 17-24 | 70.8% |
| Georgia | Patrick Beless | 5'9, 166 | SR | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Penn State | Koa Farmer | 6'1, 222 | FR | 18 | 22.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 (1) |
| Penn State | Nick Scott | 5'11, 198 | FR | 13 | 23.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 (1) |
| Georgia | Reggie Davis | 6'0, 170 | JR | 17 | 23.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0) |
| Georgia | Isaiah McKenzie | 5'8, 170 | SO | 4 | 10.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Penn State | DeAndre Thompkins | 5'11, 185 | FR | 23 | 7.7 | 0 | 23 | 3 (3) |
| Penn State | Mark Allen | 5'6, 181 | FR | 5 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Georgia | Isaiah McKenzie | 5'8, 170 | SO | 15 | 12.1 | 2 | 3 | 2 (1) |
| Georgia | Reggie Davis | 6'0, 170 | JR | 8 | 13.8 | 1 | 10 | 2 (1) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
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