The big 2015 Louisiana Tech football guide: Exciting Bulldogs set a high bar

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

It made sense that Louisiana Tech played Illinois in December’s Heart of Dallas Bowl. While a lot of programs are glacial in their movement, the Bulldogs and Fighting Illini are comets. The 2014 season was the first in 10 seasons of F/+ ratings that Illinois’ ranking didn’t change at least 22 spots.

Louisiana Tech is just about the same. Since 2006, the Bulldogs have ranked as high as 34th in F/+ and as low as 117th. They’ve won eight or more games four times and four or fewer three times. In their last three years, they’ve gone from 46th and 9-3 to 116th and 4-8 to 35th and 9-5.

In Skip Holtz’s first year, Tech beat Lamar and three FBS teams that combined for a 4-32 record. And the Bulldogs barely beat UTEP.

Their rebound, then, was a combination of the Year Zero effect and a little bit of new blood.

Skip’s father Lou is the quintessential Year Zero example -- he went 4-7 in his first year at Minnesota before improving by two games, he went 5-6 in his first year at Notre Dame before improving by three (and then by four more the next year), and he of course went 0-11 at South Carolina in 1999 before going 17-7 in 2000-01. The Holtz name is a constant reminder that things can change drastically between a coach’s first and second year. And two newcomers helped a natural turnaround pick up velocity.

First, you had defensive coordinator Manny Diaz. Once one of the brightest young names in coaching, Diaz experienced great success in his first year at Texas before struggling with an injury-depleted unit and getting scapegoated a bit. He landed at Tech, where he found a wealth of experienced athletes he could use aggressively. His first Tech defense created havoc everywhere, forced a load of turnovers, and improved from 109th in Def. S&P+ to 24th.

Second, you had Iowa transfer Cody Sokol, who won the starting quarterback job and thrived. Sokol and a big-play run game helped second-year offensive coordinator Tony Petersen turn the offense around almost as dramatically, from 124th in Off. S&P+ to 51st.

Diaz and Sokol were only one-year fixes, however. Sokol graduated, and Diaz took the coordinator job at Mississippi State. They gave Tech a push, and without them we’ll see if the Bulldogs can do something they haven’t done particularly well in recent years: sustain momentum.

From last year’s preview:

Even a dramatically improved Tech is likely to start 1-4.

If the Bulldogs can survive a gauntlet of trips to Oklahoma, Louisiana-Lafayette (the Sun Belt favorite), North Texas (a potential C-USA West favorite), and Auburn with some semblance of confidence, the last seven games could produce five wins and bowl eligibility.

Technically, I was only one game off. I thought Tech would start 1-4, and the Bulldogs started 2-3. But things didn’t play out in a predictable manner. The Bulldogs got rocked by Oklahoma and Auburn as expected and also lost to the one team I thought they’d beat, Northwestern State, thanks to a minus-5 turnover margin. But they also played like a 90th-percentile team (~top 15 or so) in routing UL-Lafayette and North Texas on the road.

By the time the season ended, Tech’s ceiling and floor were about as far apart as you could get.

Every team creates a range over the course of 12 to 14 games, but that’s a chasm. That’s the difference between playing like Auburn and playing like Florida Atlantic. And three of Tech’s six best performances came one game after one of the Bulldogs’ worst performances. The results reflected this silliness: Tech lost to Northwestern State and Old Dominion but won the Conference USA West and damn near beat Marshall in Huntington in the conference title game.

Most of this came from the offense. Diaz’s defense allowed between 5.5 (solid) and 3.5 (great) yards per play in 11 of 14 games, but the offense was all over the place: 3.8 per play against Oklahoma, 7.8 against UL-Lafayette, 7.4 against UTEP, 4.1 against USA, 5.0 against ODU (which had an atrocious defense), 9.5 against Rice. The offense was far less experienced than the defense, so this makes a little bit of sense.

The major reason for Tech’s offensive instability: big plays. The Bulldogs were incredibly reliant on them.

They had 75 gains of 20-plus yards (18th in the country), but they were not evenly distributed. Kenneth Dixon, Jarred Craft, and Sokol all showed open-field explosiveness; each averaged more than 6 highlight yards per opportunity (anything over 5 is good), but combined, only 33 percent of their carries gained at least five yards. Meanwhile, Sokol had just enough mistakes (13 interceptions) and misfires (58 percent completion rate) to slow down the attack.

When you bust a big play, you cover up a lot of weaknesses. But waiting for a big play can be like waiting for the subway on off hours: maybe you get lucky, but you could end up waiting a long time.

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

In 2013, three-star freshman Ryan Higgins got an extended stay with the first string but didn’t take advantage. He completed 59 percent of his passes but averaged just 10.3 yards per completion, threw 13 interceptions to just six touchdowns, took sacks on one of every 12 passes (while throwing mostly short passes), and produced a passer rating above a mediocre 115 just twice in nine games. Holtz found a stopgap in Sokol.

Perhaps Higgins is ready to shine, but just in case, Holtz brought in a high-profile safety valve. You last saw Jeff Driskel attempting to drag the carcass of Florida’s offense down the field against East Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl; in three years as an on-and-off starter, Driskel proved reasonably mobile, smart, and injury-prone. He lost his job to freshman Treon Harris on a couple of occasions, saw the writing on the wall when a new coaching staff came in, and packed his bags.

Driskel never flashed too much of the four- to five-star potential the recruiting services said he had, but Sokol hadn’t exactly lit the world afire before coming to Tech, either. A fresh start can work wonders.

Whoever wins won’t have the hardest job in the world: hand the ball to Kenneth Dixon, run just enough keepers to keep the defense honest, and throw quick passes to Trent Taylor and Paul Turner. And if he can build a connection with all-or-nothing receiving threat Carlos Henderson (eight catches for 307 yards against UTEP, Rice, and Illinois; 21 catches for 262 yards against everybody else) and fellow sophomores Marlon Watts and Marcus Gaines, that’s even better.

So Tech had a 1,300-yard rusher in Kenneth Dixon and a load of exciting receivers. How were the Bulldogs so reliant on big-play bailouts then?

Youth was a factor -- Henderson, backup running back Jarred Craft, etc., were freshmen.

But the biggest reason probably came up front, where a new offensive line was getting trotted out every week.

Only once all year did Tech start the same linemen for three straight games. The lineup changed in weeks 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 12, and 13. The sack rates were solid, in part because of the quick-passing nature, but despite Dixon, the run-blocking numbers were horrendous.

That Tech must replace all-conference tackle Mitchell Bell, the line’s most constant presence (albeit one who missed three games), isn’t a good thing, but last year’s juggling has created a large base of experience. Six of the nine who finished with at least two career starts return, and if Tech can maintain mostly the same line from start to finish (and if LSU transfer Derek Edinburgh Jr. plays as well as last year’s LSU transfer, Paul Turner), the blocking numbers should improve.

And if that happens, then with the wealth of athleticism that the Bulldogs boast, this offense could become both potent and consistent.

New defensive coordinator Blake Baker is a fiery young guy, just like Manny Diaz. From the perspective of demeanor, not much will change.

But Diaz is also a proven coordinator. According to Def. S&P+, over his last five full seasons, he has produced a top-50 defense at Middle Tennessee (in 2009), a top-35 defense at Mississippi State (2010), a top-10 defense at Texas (2011), and a top-25 defense at Louisiana Tech.

Diaz’s Bulldogs were absurdly aggressive, ranking third in Havoc Rate (21.3 percent), second in tackles for loss (114), first in passes defensed (92), 11th in Stuff Rate (24.6 percent), and 24th in Adj. Sack Rate. Tech ranked 12th in Rushing S&P+, 22nd in Passing S&P+, and 25th in points allowed per scoring opportunity. No matter what you wanted to do, two Tech defenders were there to stop you. There are plenty of good mid-major defenses, but few are this well-rounded.

Not only is the pressure on Baker to avoid a drop-off, Baker will have to figure out a way to attack without five of last year’s top eight linemen and all three starting linebackers. Yikes.

When you are in Louisiana, you don’t have an excuse to lack strong athletes in your defensive front seven. Based on last year’s production and recruiting rankings, it seems like Tech has plenty of those.

Vernon Butler is a one-man run defense who racked up 12 non-sack tackles for loss; Vontarrius Dora passes the eyeball test and was a decent complementary pass rusher; Nick Thomason had seven tackles for loss and two picks as the top backup linebacker. Beau Fitte broke up three passes in limited opportunities. And Tech boasts five young linemen and one linebacker who was deemed a three-star recruit by either Rivals or the 247Sports Composite.

If players like Hakim Gray, Cedric Johnson, and Solomon Hunter are ready for large roles, all could be well.

But that’s a significant “if.” In Houston Bates, Tech must replace one of the best all-around mid-major ends in the country, one who completely dominated his former team, Illinois, in the bowl game. And in Tony Johnson, Terrell Pinson, and Mitch Villemez, the Bulldogs must replace a starting linebacking corps that compiled 24.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks, three picks, 13 break-ups, and three forced fumbles.

Diaz had pieces to use and used them well. Now Baker has to prove himself on the latter while figuring out if he has the former.

According to the Composite, Tech signed 14 three-star players. Five are freshman defensive backs. Combined with sophomores Secdrick Cooper and Michael Mims, who saw some playing time, there is a pretty awesome young base.

And unlike in the front seven, Tech won’t have to immediately find out what it has. Safeties Kentrell Brice and Xavier Woods and corners Adairius Barnes and Bryson Abraham are all back after combining for absurd disruption stats: 18 tackles for loss, five sacks, 15 interceptions, 28 breakups, and seven forced fumbles. That’s as good as you’re going to find anywhere.

Obviously regression in the front seven could lead to worse numbers for the back four, but I can’t even pretend to be concerned about the secondary. It’s going to be awesome in 2015, and it’ll probably be pretty good in 2016 and beyond.

Carlos Henderson was one of the steadiest kick return men in the country. Trent Taylor was solid in the punt returns department. And Kyle Fischer’s kickoffs and decent kick coverage made that a decent strength, too.

Now ... fix the punting. In theory, Tech’s 2015 offense will be more efficient and require less from the punting game, but turnovers (which have huge field position effects) probably aren’t going to bail the Bulldogs out as much on defense, and they’re going to need all they can from special teams. That everybody returns is mostly a good thing, but punting needs to improve, and quickly.

According to Sports Reference, of Louisiana Tech’s 34 seasons at the FBS/I-A level, the Bulldogs’ third-worst team took the field in 2013, followed by their second-best in 2014. That makes it hard to figure out the program’s trajectory.

This is an optimist-vs.-pessimist team.

The optimist sees a loaded skill position corps, a former blue-chip quarterback, a more stable offensive line, a potential All-American tackle (seriously, Vernon Butler is a bad man), and one of the best secondaries in the country, at either the power-conference or mid-major level.

The pessimist sees a team that surged primarily because of a defense that now must replace a stud coordinator and most of its front seven, not to mention an offense that must replace its quarterback and an offensive line that might not be talented enough to gel.

The optimist sees a schedule that brings Conference USA East dark horse Middle Tennessee to Ruston and avoids Marshall.

The pessimist sees trips to not only Kansas State and Mississippi State, but Western Kentucky and West contender Rice.

When a team has seen such extremes, both from 2013 to 2014 and within 2014 itself, you can talk yourself into anything. I lean toward optimism, but good or bad, there will be big plays.