The big 2015 AAC football guide, from SMU to Memphis

At the end of each conference run-through (here’s the whole AAC), I take a look at how I perceive the conference’s balance of power heading into the season. This is in no way based on schedules, so they are not predictions. They’re just how I would rank the teams after writing thousands of words about each of them.

In the last five years, the American/Big East has finished with at least a three-way tie at the top four times. It had a four-way tie in 2012.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

According to Sports Reference’s SRS ratings, the four Memphis teams that took the field between 2009 and 2012 were among the Tigers’ six worst since joining what is now FBS in the mid-1950s.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Oh, how much difference a quarterback can make. In early-October 2012, Navy was 1-3. Since Ricky Dobbs’ 2010 season, the Midshipmen were 3-10 against FBS teams not named Army. They had scored just 17 points in their first three FBS contests of 2012, and they trailed Air Force, 21-13, in the fourth quarter. And starting quarterback Trey Miller had just left the game with an ankle injury.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Over the previous nine years, Cincinnati’s No. 47 F/+ ranking in 2014 was its third worst behind 2013 (64th) and 2010 (58th). That Tommy Tuberville has been in charge for two of those three seasons could be a sign of concern, if you’re looking for one. The defense has yet to play at a top-50 level under Tuberville, and the running game, long a Tuberville staple, held the Bearcats back last year.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Sometimes it’s not the presence of a drop-off, but the magnitude, that matters.

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Two years ago, I wasn’t sure if Ruffin McNeill was going to make it at ECU. He inherited a program that had won at least seven games for four straight years under Skip Holtz, then went 11-14 in his first two years.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

You don’t have to believe it. Small samples create results your eyes don’t expect, and no matter what, we’re working with samples of 12 to 15 Saturdays. Another 15-20 Saturdays might paint a different picture.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

If you’re going to fire a guy who went 8-5 in back-to-back seasons, you better stick the landing. You better have somebody in mind, and you better get him.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

In 2014, Tulane scored 8.8 fewer points per game than it did the year before and allowed a touchdown more. The Green Wave’s full-season scoring margin went from plus-44 points to minus-149, and their performance in close games regressed -- they went 3-4 in one-possession games in 2013 and 1-3 in 2014. A great defense became good, and a bad offense got worse.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

In theory, Bill Blankenship was a lovely fit at Tulsa. He was a former TU quarterback and one of the most successful high school coaches in Oklahoma history. He spent four years as a Golden Hurricane assistant under Todd Graham before Graham left town for various locations.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Bob Diaco’s first signing class, inked in February 2014, just weeks after he took the UConn head coaching job, consisted of just 16 players. It’s just as well that your first class is small, as you haven’t had time to get your bearings anyway. Instead of laying out a grand play -- this is where we’re going to recruit, this is what we’re going to sell, etc. -- you’re just trying to secure previous commitments and figure out who’s left.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

According to the 247Sports Composite rankings, USF’s 2014 recruiting class was the best in the AAC by a significant margin -- the Bulls’ 190.5 points were further ahead of second-place UCF’s 165.8 than UCF was ahead of sixth-place ECU. Their class ranked 39th overall, ahead of recently successful power-conference teams like Texas Tech, TCU, and Louisville. When you are based in such a talent-rich area, you don’t have much of an excuse not to pull in some nice prospects, but Willie Taggart’s haul was particularly impressive considering USF’s uncertain status (from BCS-level to non-power following the AAC’s demotion) and the fact that the Bulls went 2-10 in 2013, Taggart’s first season.

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Last year’s SMU preview centered around the line between consistency and stagnation. Under June Jones, the Mustangs had mastered the art of staying the same. In terms of F/+ ratings, there were some peaks (51st in 2011) and valleys (88th in 2013), but SMU had won either seven or eight games every year from 2009-12, and nearly did the same in 2013.