Nick Saban used part of his Wednesday appearance at SEC Media Days to complain about the NFL's draft grade system -- whereby non-seniors can apply for an evaluation before declaring -- having some kind of ill effect on Alabama's "team chemistry" before the Sugar Bowl.
Nick Saban’s NFL Draft argument is self-serving and doesn’t make much sense
The Alabama coach complained about his players receiving NFL evaluations before the Playoff semifinal, as if they didn’t already know the draft was coming soon.
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“We’re trying to get ready for a game, and all of a sudden, a guy finds out he’s a first round draft pick or a guy that thought he was a first round draft pick finds out he’s not a first round draft pick,” said Saban. “I think that it would be better not to submit that information to a player until he was finished competing in college. We’ve moved the draft back. We have not moved the date that a player has to declare back.”
Saban’s no stranger to convenient excuses following Alabama upsets, but this one seems especially tenuous.
Steven Godfrey: Bud, you're around Florida State's program practically every day. Was Jameis Winston's decision to declare early ever cited as a reason the Seminoles lost to Oregon? Because I was on the sidelines of the Superdome, and in my ain't-never-coached eyes, the difference in Alabama's chemistry came from Cardale Jones, not the looming specter of pro football.
Bud Elliott: I’ve never heard that from anyone with the program, no. And Winston was arguably the best player they’ve ever had, plus it was clear he was leaving.
Godfrey: What’s your initial reaction to Saban claiming this distracted Alabama?
Elliott: I think it is entirely plausible. Several people inside FSU's program have expressed to me the idea that some draft-eligible underclassmen had "junioritis," though that was with respect to the whole year and the offseason leading up to it, not just the Rose Bowl.
There were very few draft-eligible underclassmen on the 2013 team who would have received good news from the NFL's evaluation. Kelvin Benjamin and Timmy Jernigan were likely the two who received positive news, and both declared. I didn't see any signs of letdown from them in the title game.
Godfrey: Saban’s remarks created a pretty short list of suspects. When you’re referencing draft grades, you’re talking about juniors, and when you’re talking about Alabama’s loss to Ohio State, the first thing that springs to mind is Jones chewing up the Tide’s secondary. Even defensive coordinator Kirby Smart publicly admitted that Bama didn’t see that kind of offense coming.
All things considered, it's easy to assume Saban's talking about a guy like Landon Collins, the junior safety who was drafted by the New York Giants in the second round. I called Collins' representatives Wednesday, and they doubted that Collins would speak to us about this, because "Bama guys don't like to talk about Saban."
Elliott: But Saban's additional complaint about these players running out of bounds could apply to someone like receiver Amari Cooper.
Godfrey: I just watched a replay of the Sugar Bowl, and the first play from scrimmage is a Cooper sweep for five yards. He steps out of bounds to avoid contact. But that kind of logic is insane; Cooper knew he was a top prospect a hell of a lot earlier than the Sugar Bowl. Not to mention that he carried the Tide with two touchdowns.
Elliott: That's why I don't think it's the evaluations, per se. Maybe it was someone like running back T.J. Yeldon, a player at arguably the most physical position whose draft stock was more uncertain. I think maybe it's the natural mindset of seeing that finish line so close and not wanting to get injured before you can make money.
Of course, if you are a player, knowing where you stand earlier is better. Titles and rings are great, but you can’t retire your mom on a Playoff win. It’s actually smart to avoid injury and preserve your draft stock, as much as your coaches, teammatesand fans would hate you for it.
Godfrey: And if that’s the case, every contender has had to deal with that mentality. It’s not unique to Alabama, it didn’t create an advantage for Ohio State, and it can’t be undone by changing the dates for draft grades. It’s just another intangible that needs to be addressed by coaches.
Elliott: Bingo, which is why Saban was whining in Hoover.
Godfrey: Saban was most definitely whining. But would deferring the evaluation process alter the recruiting process that time of year?
Elliott: Not if you just pushed it back to after bowl season. Very few recruiting decisions are based on which juniors are turning pro.
Besides, Saban’s line of reasoning somewhat assumes that the players would not have a good idea of their draft chances independent of the official evaluation. It’s an important tool to be sure, but advisors, agents and coaches will have already helped to craft the picture.
Heck, even the mock drafts done by Internet writers with no connections to NFL teams are pretty solid by that time of year. It’s not like they put guys in the first round who later go undrafted.
Former player blasts Saban
Godfrey: Why is it that early draft announcements don’t impact strategy?
Elliott: Some do, but you just do not have that many juniors going. And as coaches, you know a kid’s family situation and what his draft grade is likely going to be, so you probably know whether he’ll turn pro. These guys typically are not too surprised when a kid declares.
Godfrey: So per our logic -- that Saban was referencing a pretty specific player or two -- does that bite you in the ass at all in recruiting? Shouldn’t opposing coaches leap to show that Saban isn’t interested in helping you go pro?
Elliott: Could you do so in a way that wouldn’t sound like you approve of your players giving less than 100 percent in a national semifinal?
Godfrey: I think all of this is circumvented if Saban adds an immediate clarifier. “I’m not making excuses, we got outplayed,” whatever.
Because Saban does use SECMD as a chance to set the table for conversations. He’s stumped on a variety of topics in Hoover before. Him talking about this isn’t out of the ordinary, but the way in which he blamed part of a loss on pro evals left him wide open for criticism. Or in to put it in terms Saban can most appreciate: he could’ve controlled this better.
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