2016 Big Ten West standings and tiebreakers: Why Wisconsin should win it

All year, Wisconsin and Nebraska have stood ahead of the rest of the Big Ten West. Neither’s been able to beat the elite teams on the other side of the conference (and Nebraska didn’t even get close), but they’ve been better their their westerly peers.

Almost certainly, one of them’s going to win this division and move to play the East champ (likely Michigan) with a Playoff berth on the line in Indianapolis. A lot of wild stuff would have to happen for that not to happen. But assuming rounding-error chaos doesn’t break out, the Badgers and Huskers are the serious candidates to win.

But there’s a logjam behind them, so we might as well take stock.

Here are all the potentially relevant teams in the divisional standings:

Wisconsin (5-2)
Nebraska (5-2)
Minnesota (4-3)
Iowa (4-3)
Northwestern (4-3)

And all of their remaining opponents:

Wisconsin: at Purdue, vs. Minnesota
Nebraska: vs. Maryland, at Iowa
Minnesota: vs. Northwestern, at Wisconsin
Iowa: at Illinois, vs. Nebraska
Northwestern: at Minnesota, vs. Illinois

If the Badgers beat Purdue and Minnesota, they’ll either win the West outright or on a head-to-head tiebreaker with Nebraska, whom they beat Halloween weekend.

There are other ways for the Badgers to win. But this is by far the simplest option. S&P+ gives the Badgers an 82 percent chance to win both games.

If the Huskers beat Maryland and Iowa (40 percent chance, in total) and Wisconsin trips up somewhere, the Huskers win the West outright.

That’s probably the only way this works out for them. (It’s safe to assume Wisconsin isn’t going to lose twice in a row, including once against Purdue.)

Minnesota could force a 6-3 tie atop the division by winning out and having Nebraska lose once. Iowa could get involved in a 6-3 tie by winning out (including a win against Nebraska) and hoping for Wisconsin to drop a game somewhere. And Northwestern could get into a 6-3 tie by winning out and having both Wisconsin and Nebraska lose at least once.

The Big Ten’s first tiebreaker, in the event of a three- or more-team tie, is the tied teams’ record against all the other tied teams. That’s why Wisconsin is still likely to win in any such scenario. The Badgers already have head-to-head, tiebreaker wins against Nebraska, Iowa, and Northwestern and losses to no one who could join this logjam.

There are some rounding-error things that could come up and make this more complicated. For now, Wisconsin will be fine as long as it stays even with Nebraska for two more weeks.