College Football

Why Colorado and Utah are in better Pac-12 South shape than USC

The Buffs win by winning out, and chaos benefits Utah, not USC.

Nov 18, 2016, 8:20 PM UTC

Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

The Colorado Buffaloes have been on a program-changing run in 2016, and they can cap it with a Pac-12 South title if they win their last two games. But if they don’t, the division gets messy, and things could break a couple different ways.

The South is a three-team race. Utah and USC also have chances, though both have one more conference loss than the Buffs. The relevant standings, with Playoff rankings:

No. 10 Colorado (6-1)
No. 13 USC (6-2)
No. 12 Utah (5-2)

And all three teams’ conference opponents in the last two weeks:

Colorado: vs. Washington State, vs. Utah
USC: at UCLA
Utah: vs. Oregon, at Colorado

(The Trojans also play Notre Dame on Nov. 26.)

If Colorado handles business, Colorado wins.

This week’s opponent, No. 22 Washington State, has a strong chance to win the Pac-12 North. Next week’s, Utah, is really good. S&P+ gives the Buffs a 53 percent chance to win out and finish 8-1, and if they can do that, they’re in the league championship.

USC needs a Colorado loss and a Colorado win, in that order.

Plus, the Trojans have to beat UCLA.

USC already beat the Buffs head-to-head, so if the teams wind up in a two-way tie at 7-2 in the conference, USC will advance.

The Trojans have won six in a row, and they play a Bruins team this weekend that’s both injured and terrible. They should be expected to win, with S&P+ suggesting a 74 percent chance of victory even without specifically adjusting for UCLA QB Josh Rosen’s absence.

Here’s the problem, though: Utah. The Trojans don’t just need to catch Colorado. They need to do it without Utah also tying or passing Colorado. Their only path is to beat UCLA, and have Colorado lose to Wazzu but beat Utah. Then USC would finish tied with the Buffs for first place, and it would win the South on a head-to-head tiebreaker.

Utah’s simplest path involves USC getting upset against UCLA.

If that happens, and the Utes stay within a game of the Buffs this weekend (either by winning or the Buffs losing), the Utah-Colorado match next week becomes a play-in game. That’d leave Colorado a chance to win the division outright, and Utah would have a chance to win either outright or on a head-to-head tiebreaker.

Remember when Utah beat USC back in September with a 15-play, 93-yard drive in the final minutes? That could turn out to matter a lot. And in the unlikely event Colorado collapses with an 0-2 finish, it could give the Utes the division on a head-to-head tiebreaker with USC.

If there’s a three-team tie, Utah advances.

If USC beats UCLA, Colorado beats Wazzu, and Utah beats both Oregon and Colorado, everyone will finish conference play at 7-2.

The first Pac-12 tiebreaker is the tied teams’ records against each other. USC went 1-1 against Colorado and Utah, while Colorado is currently 0-1, and Utah is currently 1-0.

If Colorado beats Utah, there can’t be a three-way tie. The Buffs will have won the division outright or tied with USC, with the Trojans advancing on head-to-head.

Any three-way tie has to include Utah beating Colorado and finishing with the best head-to-head-to-head record of the three teams. The Utes would win the South.