ACC Atlantic standings: How Clemson-Wake Forest will decide who wins the division

The ACC Atlantic divisional race is now extremely simple.

No. 4 Clemson plays Wake Forest on Saturday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN). If the Tigers win, they’ll win the Atlantic by way of a head-to-head tiebreaker against Louisville (which is already about to fall from No. 5, having lost at Houston).

If the Demon Deacons win, Louisville wins the division outright and heads to the ACC Championship Game.

Louisville finished in the ACC with a 7-1 record. Clemson is 6-1, and because the Tigers beat the Cardinals in Death Valley on Oct. 1, they’ll win out if they finish with the same record.

Either Clemson or Louisville will likely face North Carolina or Virginia Tech in Orlando, with the Hokies currently likelier.

The Cardinals play Kentucky in their last game, while Clemson plays South Carolina. Neither Week 13 contest will have any bearing on the race for the Atlantic.

But “shouldn’t” doesn’t mean “won’t.”

The Tigers have a 93 percent chance to win, according to S&P+ projections. Las Vegas likes Clemson a good bit, too. The Tigers have been favored all week by just more than three touchdowns, and if they don’t win, it will be a colossal upset. It will be much more surprising than when Clemson lost last weekend at home to Pitt.

Wake Forest’s offense is not good. The Deacs can’t throw pretty much at all, and their running game isn’t nearly strong enough to make up for that shortcoming.

But the defense is good, and it’s not impossible that Deshaun Watson finds himself frustrated at points. Wake did just hold Lamar Jackson’s Louisville to only 10 points through three quarters. If he throws three interceptions, as he did last week, all bets are off.

Still, expect Clemson to win this game and therefore the Atlantic. If that doesn’t happen, it’ll be a significant surprise and put the ACC’s Playoff chances in doubt.