When No. 3 Michigan descends on Columbus to play No. 2 Ohio State on Saturday (noon ET, ABC), the Wolverines will be somewhat shorthanded. Their starting quarterback, Wilton Speight, didn’t play in last week’s win against Indiana.
Michigan’s QB is hurt against a good Ohio State pass D. So ... how about the run game?
A whole lot of pressure will be on the Wolverines’ ground game in the biggest game of the regular season.
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He is reportedly out for the regular season with a broken collarbone, but Speight at least warmed up last Saturday, and Michigan is unlikely to say anything final about his status.
Against IU, Houston transfer John O’Korn filled in. It didn’t go well, with O’Korn posting a bleak line: 7 of 16 for 59 yards, no touchdowns or interceptions, and a 74.7 rating that was Michigan’s second-worst of the year. The worst was in Michigan’s previous game, a 14-13 loss at Iowa that saw Speight get injured.
So Michigan finds itself in a bind. In all likelihood, the Wolverines will either start O’Korn — who hasn’t played much and looked bad when he did, against a decent defense that isn’t as good as OSU’s — or Speight, who’d be rusty, still injured, or a combination.
They’ll make this decision as touchdown underdogs, on the road, against their biggest rivals, in the biggest game of the year, coming off their two worst passing games yet.
So no matter what, Michigan’s going to have to run. A lot.
Right now, the weather forecast for Columbus on Saturday looks manageable. Plus, Michigan played in a blizzard last week and won.
But Michigan’s passing game already looks weak, and if there turns out to be snow in Ohio two days after Thanksgiving, that’ll only amplify the Wolverines’ likely problems moving the ball aerially.
Michigan’s offense probably will come down to the running game. The Wolverines offense is brilliant on the whole, but when it becomes one-dimensional, things get dark.
In Michigan’s lowest-scoring games of the year, it hasn’t been hard to identify the bug. In October, Wisconsin held Michigan to 14 points, when UM averaged 3 yards per carry. Two games ago, Iowa held it to 13, when the rushing average was 2.8. Michigan did drop 51 points on UCF in September with a 2.9-yard rushing average, but that was UCF, and special teams also weirded things up.
The Buckeyes hold opposing QBs to the lowest passer rating in the country. They’ve held teams to 45 percent completions. They’ve got 17 interceptions. Everyone who plays on the back end is a top-flight athlete.
Whoever plays QB for Michigan will have some weapons. Receivers Jehu Chesson and Amara Darboh are great, and tight end Jake Butt’s one of the best. The line protects well.
But if anyone’s expecting Michigan to have an efficient day of passing, they’re likely to be surprised.
RB De’Veon Smith had better eat his steak this week.
Smith was excellent against a decent Indiana defense, and his two 30-plus-yard scoring runs in the second half were the difference in the game. But Ohio State’s a different animal, and Smith will have a lot to handle.
Against IU, Smith averaged 6.9 yards per run. Nobody else was better than 4.3, and Smith took 23 of UM’s 50 rushing attempts. (For the year, he only takes about 30 percent of Michigan’s carries.) I’m not sure Smith is Michigan’s best running back by a wide margin — freshman Chris Evans is a lot more explosive and averages a longer carry for the season — but Michigan fed him the ball more often last week than in any other.
Ohio State’s rush defense isn’t as good as its pass defense, or as good as Michigan’s rush defense, for that matter.
But it’s still pretty good, ranking in the top 15 nationally in Defensive Rushing S&P+. It’s 17th in average carry allowed, at 3.4 yards.
The Buckeyes grade out well in Rushing Success Rate, because they keep teams off schedule with stops on two-thirds of opposing carries. They stuff carries at the line about 30 percent of the time, the best mark in the country. Short-yardage tries are successful against OSU less than half the time.
Ohio State’s only problem has to do with the big play. When runners are successful in getting a few yards, they sometimes really take off. Ohio State rates poorly in Defensive Rushing IsoPPP, which measures explosive plays. Teams have gotten 45 runs of 10-plus yards, 16 of 20-plus, and six of 30-plus. Those aren’t horrible figures, but they’re not Alabaman, either.
Because Ohio State’s biggest weakness here is the occasional big play allowed on the ground, it makes sense for Michigan to use Evans a lot. He averages better than 7 yards per run, and when he gets beyond 5 yards, he averages another 8. For Ohio State’s footprint, he’s a better fit than Smith as a feature back, unless Smith’s long touchdown runs against IU are a sign that he’s gotten better at the big play.
I don’t think Jim Harbaugh will see it that way, and that’s OK.
He knows more than me about football, and it’s not even close. Smith is a senior, Evans a freshman, and Michigan has the best sense of its own personnel.
But the Wolverines aren’t likely to do much in the air. They’re not likely to do a whole ton on the ground, either, so when they do, they’ll have to make it count.
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