Explaining all of college football’s 2016 standings races, with just 2 weekends left

Only a few things have been settled as we head into College Football Hate Week.

We know Clemson has won the ACC Atlantic, Alabama and Florida will meet in the SEC title game, Navy has won the AAC West, Louisiana Tech has won the Conference USA West, and San Diego State has won the MWC West.

We know Bedlam will decide the Big 12, the Apple Cup will decide the Pac-12 North, and Western Michigan-Toledo will decide the MAC West.

That’s about it. That’s really not a lot.

Hate Week is also the most decisive weekend of the season when it comes to both national and conference title races. With the MAC East getting decided Tuesday night (Ohio won it), this feels like a pretty good time to check out some odds.

Using S&P+ win probabilities found in the Football Study Hall stat profiles, here are all the conference title stakes for the days ahead.

Clemson clinched the ACC Atlantic last week, but the Tigers still await their dance partner.

Virginia Tech and North Carolina are tied for the Coastal lead, with the Hokies holding the tiebreaker. Technically, we could see a four-way tie in the Coastal if Tech and UNC lose and Miami and Pitt win, but VT would win that tie-breaker. So it’s a two-team race.

The Big 12 race gets a bye this week. There are some games, but only one matters: Bedlam.

Ohio State-Michigan is apparently big enough to warrant a five-hour episode of ESPN’s College GameDay (nothing says “big Midwestern game” like bloat, huh?), and while nothing would justify that, it’s obviously huge.

For Ohio State to have a chance of winning the Big Ten, the Buckeyes not only need to beat Michigan but also need to hope for an enormous upset by Michigan State. Penn State’s victory over Ohio State puts PSU second in line for the Big Ten East title.

In the West, Wisconsin is the favorite but still has work to do.

On Monday’s Podcast Ain’t Played Nobody, Steven Godfrey and I agreed that we trust Ohio State a little more than Michigan at the moment. I guess that means we’re envisioning Penn State in Indianapolis.

We were two seconds from two winner-take-all battles in the Pac-12. If Utah had beaten Oregon as expected, the winner of Utah-Colorado would have decided the South, just as the Apple Cup would have decided the North.

That’s still somewhat true; only, a Utah win in Boulder would win the division for USC instead.

Florida’s upset of LSU means we already have our SEC pairing a week early. The Iron Bowl will still feature drama because a) it’s the Iron Bowl, and b) a Bama loss would make a win over Florida mandatory for the Tide’s CFP case, but that’s somewhat secondary.

Navy’s win over ECU clinched a West title for Ken Niumatalolo’s Midshipmen, whose only in-conference blemish came at USF. They could get a title game rematch.

Old Dominion needs Marshall to pull a huge upset of WKU for the Monarchs to reach the Conference USA title game; the Hilltoppers will almost certainly score a rematch with Louisiana Tech, but let’s acknowledge ODU has had one hell of a season. In their third full season in FBS, Bobby Wilder’s Monarchs are 8-3 with losses only to Appalachian State, NC State, and WKU, all away from home.

WKU’s 59-24 win over ODU in Bowling Green will likely make the difference in the division. The Hilltoppers are unlikely to suffer an upset against a lifeless Marshall. But that’s fine, too: The first WKU-Louisiana Tech game was a classic, a 55-52 Tech win.

Technically, WMU hasn’t won anything yet. The Broncos are 11-0 and, thanks to Boise State’s iffy Mountain West title odds, are a significant favorite to land the Group of 5’s major bowl bid. But Toledo’s good, too.

Friday night’s winner in Kalamazoo scores the West title, but the East was determined on Tuesday night in favor of Ohio.

From the perspective of rankings and advanced stats, Boise State is the best in the Mountain West. But the Broncos will need help from New Mexico to advance to the MWC title game. Craig Bohl’s Cowboys have repeatedly interrupted Boise State’s plans.

The Sun Belt is at once the most simple and complicated conference race. On one hand, thanks to the absence of a conference title game, both Arkansas State and Troy have two games remaining, creating a lot of scenarios. On the other, Arkansas State is almost certainly going to take the title.