Based on the latest College Football Playoff rankings (listed in full below), here’s what the New Year’s Six would look like if the season ended right now. Most of the non-semifinals are based on conference ties, while this year’s Cotton will be required to take the top-ranked mid-major conference champion.
New College Football Playoff rankings: What the New Year’s bowls would look like right now
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Peach Bowl semifinal: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Clemson. Both these teams are win-and-in, though Bama could lose the Iron Bowl and still make it.
Fiesta Bowl semifinal: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Michigan. This will obviously change after this weekend, since the two play each other in Columbus. To make the Big Ten Championship, OSU also needs Penn State to lose to Michigan State. (I think a Spartans loss would thus count as Mark Dantonio spoiling Urban Meyer yet again.)
Rose Bowl: No. 5 Washington vs. No. 6 Wisconsin. Jumping from the Rose to the Playoff is likely, if either wins out. I do not buy the idea that the committee would choose a one-loss Ohio State that didn’t win its conference over a two-loss Big Ten champ. Remember, the committee is designed to make conference championships matter.
Sugar Bowl: No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 Auburn. I don’t think OU has a realistic Playoff shot, and I think Tennessee has the simplest path to taking the SEC’s bid here, though Florida could take it by beating Florida State.
Orange Bowl: No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 11 Louisville. Why is PSU, who beat Ohio State, behind UW, whose best win is over Nebraska? Hard to say exactly, if we’re just going by schedules. UW has more of those Quality Losses, for whatever that’s worth, since PSU lost to unranked Pitt. (We really don’t know what it’s worth.)
Wisconsin also has more to gain this week than Penn State does, just in terms of the rankings. UW can beat 8-3 Minnesota, while PSU can impress nobody against 3-8 Michigan State. They might meet in the B1G title game and settle this the simple way, I guess.
I also don’t know why Louisville’s ranked three spots behind OU -- another two-loss team with a minimally impressive list of wins and a loss to Houston -- though I’d still guess an Orange bid is just about assured for the Cards.
Cotton Bowl: No. 9 Colorado vs. No. 21 Western Michigan. Houston isn’t eligible for the mid-major bid, since it’ll finish behind Navy in the AAC standings, and Boise State needs Wyoming to lose to New Mexico. Therefore, WMU is still the mid-major leader. Navy is also a clear contender now.
I’ve also updated projections for what I think the Playoff and every bowl will look like after the next two weeks, rather than right now.
Here’s the new College Football Playoff top 25.
| Rank | Conference | Prev week | Week 12 result | |
| 1 | Alabama, 11-0 | SEC | 1 | W vs. Chattanooga, 31-3 |
| 2 | Ohio State, 10-1 | Big Ten | 2 | W at Michigan State, 17-16 |
| 3 | Michigan, 10-1 | Big Ten | 3 | W vs. Indiana, 20-10 |
| 4 | Clemson, 10-1 | ACC | 4 | W at Wake Forest, 35-13 |
| 5 | Washington, 10-1 | Pac-12 | 6 | W vs. Arizona State, 44-18 |
| 6 | Wisconsin, 9-2 | Big Ten | 7 | W at Purdue, 49-20 |
| 7 | Penn State, 9-2 | Big Ten | 8 | W at Rutgers, 39-0 |
| 8 | Oklahoma, 9-2 | Big 12 | 9 | W at WVU, 56-28 |
| 9 | Colorado, 9-2 | Pac-12 | 10 | W vs. WSU, 38-24 |
| 10 | Oklahoma State, 9-2 | Big 12 | 11 | W at TCU, 31-6 |
| 11 | Louisville, 9-2 | ACC | 5 | L at Houston, 36-10 |
| 12 | USC, 8-3 | Pac-12 | 13 | W at UCLA, 36-14 |
| 13 | Auburn, 8-3 | SEC | 15 | W vs. Alabama A&M, 55-0 |
| 14 | Florida State, 8-3 | ACC | 17 | W at Syracuse, 45-14 |
| 15 | Florida, 8-2 | SEC | 23 | W at LSU, 16-10 |
| 16 | Nebraska, 9-2 | Big Ten | 18 | W vs. Maryland, 28-7 |
| 17 | Tennessee, 8-3 | SEC | 19 | W vs. Missouri, 63-37 |
| 18 | West Virginia, 8-2 | Big 12 | 14 | L vs. Oklahoma, 56-28 |
| 19 | Boise State, 10-1 | MWC | 20 | W vs. UNLV, 42-25 |
| 20 | Houston, 9-2 | AAC | NR | W vs. Louisville, 36-10 |
| 21 | Western Michigan, 11-0 | MAC | 21 | W vs. Buffalo, 38-0 |
| 22 | Utah, 8-3 | Pac-12 | 12 | L vs. Oregon, 30-28 |
| 23 | Washington State, 8-3 | Pac-12 | 22 | L at Colorado, 38-24 |
| 24 | Stanford, 8-3 | Pac-12 | 24 | W at Cal, 45-31 |
| 25 | Navy, 8-2 | AAC | NR | W at ECU, 66-31 |
Elsewhere!
Set this aside to read on your flight or for a distraction during a dispute with an uncle: Bill Connelly at one of the biggest HBCU rivalries of the year.
The NCAA wants Notre Dame to vacate all its wins from 2012 and 2013, due to academic blunders. Unless the Irish win their appeal, the record books will soon declare ND went 0-1 in 2012, showing up for a blowout loss to Alabama in the BCS Championship and doing nothing else.
Bud Elliott has a whopping 35 bets for this weekend, off to a 2-0 start during Tuesday night’s MACtion. (Ohio won the MAC East, btw.)
Hey, here’s Matthew McConaughey strolling around Austin with a beer in hand, praising Charlie Strong’s legacy and promising Texas will whoop TCU’s ass.
Seems pretty simple to me: either Strong has a chance to pull a Les Miles miracle and keep his job, or Texas is making a public mess again.
SMU’s Chad Morris to Baylor is the hot coaching rumor of the moment.
No wait, it’s Jimbo Fisher reportedly upping the ante on LSU.
Actually, it’s a report that Purdue might actually pull off this Les Miles thing?
Texas A&M has already beaten LSU once this week, swiping away a four-star recruit.
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