The second-to-last college football weekend of the regular season is upon us. The College Football Playoff race has a few potential twists yet, but every conference has now sorted out its final matchups for Championship Weekend.
College football rankings: How Rivalry Week’s top 25 scores changed the picture
Below, quick notes on each game that had Playoff or conference title stakes.
Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports
Here are the final scores of every game on the weekend that included either a ranked team or a team with a shot at winning an FBS conference, along with a list of next week’s conference championship (or veritable conference champonship) games. Except the Sun Belt, because it’s complicated. Give me a minute.
No. 1 Alabama 30 (12-0), No. 13 Auburn 12 (8-4)
Probably don’t even have to win next week’s SEC Championship against Florida to make the Playoff.
No. 2 Ohio State 30 (11-1), No. 3 Michigan 27 (10-2), double OT
Michigan’s almost certainly out of the Playoff race, but OSU’s still got a potential path. No Big Ten Championship trip, but the Buckeyes could still finish with by far the best resume among non-champions and have a head-to-head win over potential Big 12 champ Oklahoma.
No. 4 Clemson 56 (11-1), South Carolina 7 (6-6)
Dominant win over a .500 team, not that it matters, unless it nudges you to No. 2 or 3 and thus keeps you from playing Bama in the semifinals. Beat Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship, and you’re in.
No. 5 Washington 45 (11-1), No. 2 Washington State 17 (8-4)
Pac-12 North champs, adding a quality W. Beat Colorado, and I think you’re in the Playoff. CU is both the higher-ranked opponent and probably the more beatable one.
No. 6 Wisconsin 31 (10-2), Minnesota 17 (8-4)
Already Big Ten West champs, but add a quality W. New Year’s guaranteed. Next, we’ll figure out where.
No. 7 Penn State 45 (10-2), Michigan State 12 (3-9)
PSU just won the Big Ten East and has a Playoff chance, facing Wisconsin next week.
No. 9 Colorado 27 (10-2), No. 22 Utah 22 (8-4)
Pac-12 South champs, adding a quality W. Win the Pac-12 Championship, then see how much mayhem arises.
Kentucky 41 (7-5), No. 11 Louisville 38 (9-3)
Might’ve just coughed up an Orange Bowl bid.
No. 12 USC 45 (9-3), Notre Dame 27 (4-8)
Not much to gain here, but can still make the Pac-12 Championship (and thus the Rose Bowl), if Utah beats Colorado.
No. 14 Florida State 31 (9-3), No. 15 Florida 13 (8-3)
Guaranteed a nice bowl trip, and maybe even the Orange, thanks to Louisville. UF’s out of the Sugar Bowl race.
Iowa 40 (8-4), No. 16 Nebraska 10 (9-3)
Didn’t end up mattering much.
Vanderbilt 45 (6-6), No. 17 Tennessee 34 (8-4)
Bowl eligible without even dipping into APR scores. The Sugar Bowl’s options are looking slim. Butch Jones hot seat!
No. 18 West Virginia 49 (9-2), Iowa State 19 (3-9)
Doesn’t matter.
Air Force 27 (9-3), No. 19 Boise State 20 (10-2)
Wyoming wins the division and the right to play San Diego State for the MWC title. Boise State can’t win its division, and thus can’t reach the Cotton. Great for WMU.
Memphis 48 (8-4), No. 20 Houston 44 (9-3)
Doesn’t impact the postseason much, but not great for Louisville and Oklahoma, which lost to Houston.
No. 21 Western Michigan 55 (12-0), Toledo 35 (9-3)
MAC West champs and one win from the Cotton Bowl.
No. 24 Stanford 41 (9-3), Rice 17 (3-9)
Profoundly irrelevant.
No. 25 Navy 75 (9-2), SMU 31 (5-7)
Great shot at the Cotton Bowl, if WMU loses in the MAC Championship. Might even steal it anyway, with a conference title. That’d require the committee to wait out the results of Army-Navy, though, which would delay the Cotton Bowl announcement by a week.
And here’s the state of every conference championship.
ACC
Clemson-Virginia Tech in Orlando next week.
American
Temple at Navy for the title.
Big 12
The conference comes down to Oklahoma State at Oklahoma, which is next week anyway. Winner’s probably in the Sugar.
Big Ten
Wisconsin vs. Penn State in Indianapolis next week.
Conference USA
Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky for the title.
MAC
Ohio vs. Western Michigan in Detroit.
Mountain West
San Diego State vs. Wyoming at a campus site.
Pac-12
Washington vs. Colorado in Santa Clara, California.
SEC
Alabama vs. Florida in Atlanta.
Sun Belt
Complicated! I’ll let Bill Connelly lay this out:
Relevant games
Arkansas State at UL-Lafayette (Saturday, noon pm ET): Ark. State 55%
Troy at Texas State (Saturday, 4:00 pm ET): Troy 99%
Appalachian State at New Mexico State (Saturday, 4:00 pm ET): App. State 91%
Arkansas State at Texas State (Next Saturday): Ark. State 95%
Troy at Georgia Southern (Next Saturday): Troy 80%
Scenarios
If Arkansas State wins out, the Red Wolves win outright.
If Arkansas State finishes 1-1 and Troy wins out (or Troy goes 1-1 and Appalachian State loses to NMSU), the Red Wolves win outright.
If Arkansas State finishes 1-1, Troy loses at least once, and Appalachian State beats NMSU, the Red Wolves and Mountaineers finish in a 7-1 tie with no head-to-head tiebreaker.
If Arkansas State goes 0-2 and Troy wins out, Troy wins.
If Arkansas State goes 0-2, Troy loses at least once, and Appalachian State beats NMSU, Appalachian State wins.
Sun Belt title odds
Arkansas State 89%
Arkansas State/Appalachian State tie 9%
Troy 2%
Appalachian State <1%
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