Tuesday night around 7:20 p.m. ET, right during what could be some of the tensest moments of a long and divisive election, the College Football Playoff committee will release its first rankings update of the season. I’m fascinated to see how many people care this week.
LOL, new Playoff rankings during Election Night. Anyway, Ohio State might jump UW
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Anyway, the rankings should be largely the same as last week’s at the top. Alabama will certainly remain No. 1 after shutting out an LSU that could still be ranked, Clemson and Michigan will jostle around in the next two spots (I could see UM jumping this week, since the team it beat has a better record than the team the Tigers beat, but it doesn’t matter a ton), and we’ll all yell about No. 4.
Last week, 7-1 Texas A&M ranked ahead of 8-0 Washington on dubious grounds. The Aggies had faced a tougher schedule, but their list of wins didn’t exactly sing at the time, other than the Auburn one.
A&M lost to Mississippi State, so UW’s not gonna be jumped by a one-loss team again, right? Especially after winning at Cal, 66-27?
Well, about that.
- The combined Week 10 margin of victory by Bama, Clemson, Michigan, Washington, Ohio State, Louisville, and Wisconsin: 324-47, a 46-7 average. The Huskies gave up more points than the other six combined (now that’s nit-picking).
- And OSU had the best win of anyone in that group, sending Nebraska to 7-2 with a 59-point slashing.
The Buckeyes have also played a much tougher schedule than Washington has.
- Using the committee’s rudimentary metric, OSU’s played six teams with winning records. UW’s played three, including a bad Idaho.
- OSU’s played two teams that could rank in the top 10 (Penn State and Wisconsin). UW might’ve played just one team in the whole top 25 (Utah).
- Or use superior math. Sagarin ranks OSU’s schedule No. 28 and UW’s schedule No. 68, with similar numbers in other systems.
Is there more to team strength than schedule strength? Absolutely. S&P+ says the two teams have looked about as good, adjusted for opponent.
Does the committee pay attention to anything beyond schedule strength? No one knows for sure, other than the handful of mentions per season about eyeball tests and body clocks.
Still, UW fans shouldn’t worry. Win, and you’re in.
The schedule picks up, for one thing. The Huskies have to beat three ranked-ish teams and another .500-ish team to finish 13-0, including this week against USC.
The reason we have a Playoff is that a BCS rematch mortified everyone; I still think it’ll be a long time before the committee gives us a potential Playoff rematch as long as there’s an unbeaten Power 5 champ available.
And the Huskies might rank No. 4 this week anyway!
Is this all a long way of saying two prominent Tuesday night rankings will both involve angst about Ohio’s numbers? Yeah.
FWIW, if SBNation.com’s college football people were in charge, it’d be the Huskies. (Full disclosure: I voted Ohio State this week. Podcast Ain’t Played Nobody certainly did not.) If we were in charge, it’d look like this:
(The sad part for the Aggies: they’d have an even better case for No. 4 this week, if they hadn’t lost. Their previous five SEC opponents went 5-0 on Saturday.)
Elsewhere!
You can get a haircut and pay your taxes early and re-friend your nemesis on social media. You’re still gonna lose to Bama, per Spencer Hall’s Top Whatever.
Jim Harbaugh explains canceling his weekly presser in order to go see President Obama speak at Michigan.
Maize N Brew has heard enough critiques of Michigan’s schedule, thanks. (It’s actually a fine schedule.)
Nick Saban interrogates* media on whether he has a leak, then is relieved to realize this Pro Football Focus thing he’s being asked about is an outside outlet. (*He didn’t really interrogate. It just felt fun to type.)
Never forget that it’s Broken Chair Trophy week, the greatest trophy week in all of college football.
Watch Will Muschamp encourage the expletives out of a coach he just beat. Muschamp is 5-4 and one of the elder statesmen of his division. That’s pretty cool.
The Shutdown Fullcast recaps Week 10 and worries the Tide are running out of chances to score a championship-assuring Quality Loss.
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