2016 Cure Bowl stats preview: UCF vs. Arkansas State advanced tale of the tape

UCF Knights (6-6) vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5)

December 17, 2016 ( 5:30 PM ET, CBSSN )

Spread: Central Florida -5.5

S&P+ Projection: Central Florida (25.9-20.9)

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The Basics

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Central Florida

1. Third Down S&P+ (No. 6 defense vs. No. 120 offense)
2. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 11 defense vs. No. 114 offense)
3. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 12 defense vs. No. 108 offense)
4. Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 13 defense vs. No. 97 offense)
5. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 40 defense vs. No. 109 offense)

Arkansas State

1. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 22 defense vs. No. 118 offense)
2. Run Stuffs (No. 32 defense vs. No. 126 offense)
3. Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 26 defense vs. No. 115 offense)
4. Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 23 defense vs. No. 111 offense)
5. Overall S&P+ (No. 29 defense vs. No. 115 offense)

Five Factors

Offensive Footprint

Defensive Footprint

When Central Florida has the ball…

Standard Downs

Passing Downs

When Arkansas State has the ball…

Standard Downs

Passing Downs

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}