Maryland Terrapins (6-6) vs. Boston College Eagles (6-6)
December 26, 2016 ( 2:30 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Maryland -1
S&P+ Projection: Maryland (24.1-24.0)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Maryland | Boston College | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 87 | 88 | ||
| Category | Maryland offense | Boston College defense | Boston College offense | Maryland defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.34 (78) | 4.98 (32) | 4.21 (127) | 5.40 (58) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 366.8 (102) | 317.7 (9) | 284.3 (127) | 423.6 (73) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 1.96 (90) | 1.79 (33) | 1.38 (122) | 2.25 (78) |
| Category | Maryland offense | Boston College defense | Boston College offense | Maryland defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 26.9 (81) | 21.7 (21) | 16.6 (125) | 30.9 (82) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 119.8 (14) | 129.8 (6) | 79.8 (123) | 74.8 (127) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 97.2 (76) | 107.4 (40) | 82.7 (117) | 98.9 (69) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 110.6 (36) | 100.8 (55) | 74.6 (128) | 86.6 (123) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 107.6 (54) | 156.1 (3) | 94.6 (90) | 85.2 (113) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 99.0 (79) | 92.0 (99) | 71.3 (126) | 85.7 (116) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 122.3 (16) | 157.9 (1) | 87.6 (116) | 83.3 (118) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 101.0 (66) | 90.1 (105) | 79.7 (123) | 90.7 (103) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 102.0 (65) | 129.4 (6) | 76.8 (126) | 95.0 (81) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Maryland
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 18 defense vs. No. 93 offense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 46 defense vs. No. 114 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 30 defense vs. No. 98 offense)
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 36 offense vs. No. 100 defense)
- Passing S&P+ (No. 69 defense vs. No. 117 offense)
Boston College
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 1 defense vs. No. 128 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 9 defense vs. No. 123 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 11 defense vs. No. 123 offense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 24 defense vs. No. 110 offense)
- Field Position (No. 26 offense vs. No. 105 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Maryland offense | Boston College defense | Boston College offense | Maryland defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.29 (55) | 1.46 (122) | 1.25 (71) | 1.14 (10) |
| EFFICIENCY | 42.4% (67) | 33.1% (4) | 33.4% (128) | 47.9% (119) |
| FIELD POSITION | 28.8 (88) | 30.9 (96) | 31.9 (26) | 31.5 (105) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.5 (73) | 4.7 (89) | 3.6 (122) | 4.4 (65) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Maryland -0.37 (77) Boston College 3.00 (43) |
ACTUAL Maryland -5 (99) Boston College 5 (31) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Maryland offense | Boston College offense |
| Adj. Pace | -4.1 (99) | -4.7 (105) |
| Plays per game | 68.7 (112) | 67.5 (116) |
| Possessions per game | 13.0 (64) | 13.8 (26) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 64.2% (40) | 68.0% (19) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 42.0% (19) | 47.3% (10) |
| % of solo tackles | 73.6% (67) | 78.0% (35) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Maryland defense | Boston College defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 69.0% (9) | 51.8% (119) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 33.1% (73) | 35.9% (52) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 14.1% (96) | 21.3% (3) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 9.0% (58) | 14.8% (2) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 4.3% (123) | 6.4% (54) |
| PD to INC | 26.7% (120) | 33.8% (57) |
When Maryland has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Maryland Offense | Boston College Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 110.6 | 36 | 100.8 | 55 | Maryland |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 47.2 | 74 | 40.8 | 13 | Boston College big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.18 | 42 | 0.99 | 126 | Maryland big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.89 | 83 | 2.40 | 13 | Boston College big |
| SD Sack Rate | 7.1% | 108 | 6.5% | 31 | Boston College big |
Passing Downs
| Maryland Offense | Boston College Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 107.6 | 54 | 156.1 | 3 | Boston College big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 33.2 | 43 | 19.9 | 1 | Boston College |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.61 | 108 | 1.68 | 69 | Boston College |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.80 | 21 | 2.40 | 9 | Boston College |
| PD Sack Rate | 17.1% | 128 | 16.7% | 1 | Boston College big |
When Boston College has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Boston College Offense | Maryland Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 74.6 | 128 | 86.6 | 123 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 37.5 | 128 | 52.5 | 118 | Maryland |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.06 | 92 | 1.38 | 11 | Maryland big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.27 | 126 | 3.32 | 110 | Maryland |
| SD Sack Rate | 8.2% | 119 | 4.1% | 82 | Maryland |
Passing Downs
| Boston College Offense | Maryland Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 94.6 | 90 | 85.2 | 113 | Boston College |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 26.6 | 112 | 36.0 | 117 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.71 | 75 | 1.73 | 44 | Maryland |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.99 | 91 | 3.93 | 121 | Boston College |
| PD Sack Rate | 6.7% | 49 | 13.4% | 6 | Maryland |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
