2016 Independence Bowl stats preview: Vanderbilt vs. NC State advanced tale of the tape

NC State Wolfpack (6-6) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6)

December 26, 2016 ( 5:00 PM ET, ESPN2 )

Spread: NC State -4.5

S&P+ Projection: NC State (31.7-20.1)

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Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

NC State

1. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 21 defense vs. No. 123 offense)
2. Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 23 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
3. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 11 offense vs. No. 112 defense)
4. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 26 defense vs. No. 125 offense)
5. Third Down S&P+ (No. 18 defense vs. No. 116 offense)

Vanderbilt

1. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 30 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
2. Run Stuffs (No. 21 defense vs. No. 73 offense)
3. Redzone S&P+ (No. 19 defense vs. No. 70 offense)
4. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 41 defense vs. No. 87 offense)
5. First Down S&P+ (No. 56 defense vs. No. 95 offense)

Five Factors

Offensive Footprint

Defensive Footprint

When NC State has the ball…

Standard Downs

Passing Downs

When Vanderbilt has the ball…

Standard Downs

Passing Downs

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}