Pittsburgh Panthers (8-4) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (6-6)
December 28, 2016 ( 2:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Pittsburgh -5.5
S&P+ Projection: Pittsburgh (33.3-28.2)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Pittsburgh | Northwestern | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 26 | 49 | ||
| Category | Pittsburgh offense | Northwestern defense | Northwestern offense | Pittsburgh defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.58 (13) | 5.01 (34) | 5.21 (90) | 5.89 (95) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 456.7 (35) | 394.1 (56) | 400.1 (71) | 458.7 (107) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 3.28 (8) | 1.68 (27) | 1.88 (98) | 2.65 (105) |
| Category | Pittsburgh offense | Northwestern defense | Northwestern offense | Pittsburgh defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 40.5 (4) | 23.3 (27) | 29.8 (67) | 29.3 (66) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 110.2 (38) | 107.8 (35) | 97.5 (86) | 107.1 (39) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 120.9 (19) | 104.7 (47) | 100.9 (67) | 104.4 (50) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 111.1 (33) | 100.1 (61) | 102.8 (59) | 105.1 (41) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 116.2 (31) | 119.1 (21) | 98.6 (78) | 96.8 (84) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 129.5 (16) | 116.4 (22) | 99.7 (74) | 105.0 (47) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 122.2 (17) | 109.6 (41) | 103.9 (62) | 92.1 (95) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 113.0 (35) | 100.2 (63) | 113.9 (32) | 106.5 (42) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 105.1 (56) | 95.8 (79) | 85.9 (112) | 102.1 (61) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Pittsburgh
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 20 offense vs. No. 117 defense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 6 offense vs. No. 91 defense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 40 offense vs. No. 122 defense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 38 defense vs. No. 116 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 33 defense vs. No. 107 offense)
Northwestern
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 17 defense vs. No. 76 offense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 36 defense vs. No. 93 offense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 14 defense vs. No. 50 offense)
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 22 defense vs. No. 42 offense)
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 87 offense vs. No. 99 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Pittsburgh offense | Northwestern defense | Northwestern offense | Pittsburgh defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.38 (22) | 1.14 (13) | 1.26 (69) | 1.36 (110) |
| EFFICIENCY | 45.2% (30) | 42.1% (61) | 39.8% (99) | 41.8% (57) |
| FIELD POSITION | 29.4 (73) | 29.8 (81) | 29.0 (84) | 29.1 (65) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.6 (1) | 3.6 (13) | 4.4 (81) | 5.0 (113) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Pittsburgh 0.15 (71) Northwestern 1.60 (56) |
ACTUAL Pittsburgh 3 (43) Northwestern 7 (20) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Pittsburgh offense | Northwestern offense |
| Adj. Pace | -3.3 (91) | 2.0 (45) |
| Plays per game | 69.4 (103) | 76.8 (38) |
| Possessions per game | 12.9 (70) | 13.6 (35) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 68.4% (17) | 50.2% (113) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 45.0% (15) | 34.2% (60) |
| % of solo tackles | 72.0% (89) | 78.7% (30) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Pittsburgh defense | Northwestern defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 48.3% (123) | 56.8% (92) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 21.3% (128) | 28.0% (118) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 15.1% (77) | 16.1% (53) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 8.8% (68) | 9.4% (53) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 6.1% (69) | 6.0% (75) |
| PD to INC | 24.2% (125) | 35.6% (40) |
When Pittsburgh has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Pittsburgh Offense | Northwestern Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 111.1 | 33 | 100.1 | 61 | Pittsburgh |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 51.4 | 23 | 49.6 | 89 | Pittsburgh big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.23 | 25 | 1.22 | 26 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.12 | 47 | 2.92 | 61 | Pittsburgh |
| SD Sack Rate | 2.9% | 20 | 2.4% | 117 | Pittsburgh big |
Passing Downs
| Pittsburgh Offense | Northwestern Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 116.2 | 31 | 119.1 | 21 | Northwestern |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 29.8 | 79 | 25.8 | 16 | Northwestern big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.03 | 13 | 1.71 | 27 | Pittsburgh |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.36 | 123 | 1.63 | 2 | Northwestern big |
| PD Sack Rate | 3.3% | 6 | 8.8% | 38 | Pittsburgh |
When Northwestern has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Northwestern Offense | Pittsburgh Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 102.8 | 59 | 105.1 | 41 | Pittsburgh |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 45.4 | 92 | 44.8 | 40 | Pittsburgh big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.08 | 83 | 1.03 | 111 | Northwestern |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.78 | 99 | 2.49 | 16 | Pittsburgh big |
| SD Sack Rate | 5% | 70 | 5.6% | 48 | Pittsburgh |
Passing Downs
| Northwestern Offense | Pittsburgh Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 98.6 | 78 | 96.8 | 84 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 28.8 | 93 | 35.8 | 116 | Northwestern |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.79 | 56 | 1.63 | 56 | |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.81 | 106 | 3.58 | 100 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 10.4% | 107 | 9% | 33 | Pittsburgh big |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
